{"generatedAt":"2026-07-31T00:55:45.736Z","schemaVersion":"WP-COUNTRY-REPORT-1.1","registryVersion":"WP-REGISTRY-1.0","directionModelVersion":"WP-DIRECTION-0.2","availability":"comparable_profile","country":{"wpId":"WP-BHR","officialName":"Bahrain","commonName":"Bahrain","formerNames":[],"slug":"bahrain","iso2":"BH","iso3":"BHR","isoNumeric":null,"unM49":null,"worldBankCode":"BHR","imfCode":"BHR","parentSovereign":null,"entityType":"Sovereign country","isCoreCountry":true,"region":"Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan","subregion":null,"capital":"Manama","currency":null,"languages":[],"timeZones":[],"latitude":26.1921,"longitude":50.5354,"flagUrl":"https://flagcdn.com/bh.svg","officialGovernmentUrl":null,"statisticsOfficeUrl":null,"centralBankUrl":null,"securitiesRegulatorUrl":null,"stockExchangeUrl":null,"investmentAgencyUrl":null,"metadataSource":"Protected World Bank country snapshot, enriched by the WorldPredicta entity registry","metadataCheckedAt":"2026-07-31T00:55:45.736Z"},"coverage":{"indicatorCoveragePct":68,"currentIndicatorCoveragePct":68,"historicalIndicatorCoveragePct":76,"selectedIndicators":25,"observationsAvailable":19,"currentObservations":17,"staleObservations":2,"undatedObservations":0,"futureObservations":0,"worldPredictaEntities":218,"worldBankComparableProfiles":217,"explanation":"Historical coverage means a published value exists. Current coverage means its source year is inside that indicator's declared age limit. Historical values remain visible but cannot influence current grades or directions. WorldPredicta tracks 218 entities; the World Bank supplies 217 comparable profiles."},"currentSummary":{"bottomLine":"Bahrain has 76% historical indicator coverage, but only 68% is current enough for present-day modeling. Economic direction is mixed and household direction is slightly improving.","whyItMatters":"3.5% current real growth, -0.1% current inflation and 1.1% current unemployment would shape income, purchasing power, credit conditions and public pressure. A value shown as unavailable here may still exist below as historical context.","globalRole":"Trade equals 157.5% of GDP and net foreign direct investment equals 5.7% of GDP. Trade equals 157.5% of GDP, increasing both logistics opportunity and exposure to global demand.","dataWarning":"This is a structured model baseline, not a sovereign credit rating, election forecast, security guarantee or investment recommendation. 2 stale observations are retained as historical context and 0 future-dated observations are quarantined; neither can enter current inference."},"directions":[{"category":"Political and security","horizon":"Next 3 months","direction":"Insufficient evidence","confidence":"Low","reasons":["Current elections, protests, conflict and institutional changes are not yet normalized into the country model."],"reversalCondition":"Connect and validate current political-event sources before assigning a direction."},{"category":"Economy","horizon":"Next 12 months","direction":"Mixed","confidence":"Low","reasons":["Current real growth is 3.5%.","Current consumer-price inflation is -0.1%."],"reversalCondition":"A large demand, currency, commodity or policy shock could reverse the baseline."},{"category":"Household finances","horizon":"Next 12 months","direction":"Slightly improving","confidence":"Low","reasons":["Current inflation is -0.1%.","Current unemployment is 1.1%.","Current severe food insecurity is unavailable."],"reversalCondition":"Wages, housing, utilities and benefit adequacy can materially change household outcomes."},{"category":"Infrastructure and technology","horizon":"Next 5 years","direction":"Stable","confidence":"Low","reasons":["Current rural electricity access is 100.0%.","Current internet use is 100.0%."],"reversalCondition":"Financing, project execution, affordability or power reliability could slow improvement."}],"outlooks":{"threeMonths":{"assessment":"Watch, do not overclaim","explanation":"Annual structural indicators cannot responsibly predict a sudden political, market or security event over three months."},"oneYear":{"assessment":"Mixed economy; Slightly improving household baseline","explanation":"Growth, prices and work are the strongest current comparable signals. The conclusion changes if new releases materially revise 3.5% growth, -0.1% inflation or 1.1% unemployment."},"fiveYears":{"assessment":"Export networks and supply chains","explanation":"Trade equals 157.5% of GDP, increasing both logistics opportunity and exposure to global demand. Institutional capacity, climate exposure and execution quality remain important unmodeled variables."}},"householdImplications":[{"area":"Prices","currentEvidence":"-0.1% current inflation; latest published -0.1%","why":"Determines how quickly wages, savings and fixed benefits lose purchasing power. Historical values are not treated as today's rate."},{"area":"Work","currentEvidence":"1.1% current unemployment; latest published 1.1%","why":"Connects national output to job availability and consumer demand. A stale labor reading cannot support a current direction."},{"area":"Food and assistance","currentEvidence":"unavailable current severe food insecurity; unavailable current social-protection coverage","why":"Shows how shocks reach vulnerable households and whether programs reach people; older surveys remain historical context."},{"area":"Daily access","currentEvidence":"100.0% current rural electricity; 100.0% current internet use","why":"Shapes access to work, education, finance and public services."}],"opportunities":[{"theme":"Export networks and supply chains","why":"Trade equals 157.5% of GDP, increasing both logistics opportunity and exposure to global demand.","rated":true},{"theme":"External capital and project formation","why":"Net foreign direct investment is 5.7% of GDP; one-year deals can distort this reading."}],"risks":[{"risk":"External-demand exposure","evidence":"157.5% trade-to-GDP","why":"Foreign slowdowns, currencies and shipping disruptions transmit quickly into the domestic economy."},{"risk":"Current-evidence gap","evidence":"68% current coverage; 76% historical coverage","why":"Missing or stale observations are excluded from current grades and directions because they could materially change the outlook."},{"risk":"Stale observations","evidence":"2 historical readings exceed their indicator-specific age limits","why":"These values remain useful historical context, but using them as current conditions would create false precision."}],"investmentAccess":{"userOriginRequired":true,"explanation":"Tax, sanctions, ownership, brokerage and disclosure rules depend on where the user invests from. These pathways are research starting points, not recommendations.","discoveryVehicle":null,"pathways":["Local listed equities and the national or regional stock exchange","Country, regional or sector ETFs where available","ADRs, GDRs and foreign listings","Sovereign and corporate bonds","Currency exposure","Direct business investment, free zones and private markets","Indirect exposure through multinational suppliers or customers"],"restrictionsToVerify":["Foreign ownership limits and restricted industries","Capital controls, currency conversion and profit repatriation","Sanctions and investor-country legal restrictions","Tax treaties, withholding tax and reporting duties","Local custody, minimum account size and accredited-investor rules","Real-estate ownership and business-licensing restrictions"],"officialLinks":{"government":null,"centralBank":null,"securitiesRegulator":null,"stockExchange":null,"investmentAgency":null}},"forecasts":{"linkedForecasts":[],"status":"No published forecast currently has an explicit geographic rule for this country."},"indicators":[{"indicator":"growth","label":"Real GDP growth","observationValue":3.48137573668635,"observationPeriod":"2025","observationYear":2025,"ageYears":1,"maxAgeYears":2,"freshness":"current","isCurrent":true,"unit":"percent annual real GDP growth","treatment":"Published source observation; current enough for this model"},{"indicator":"gdpPerCapita","label":"GDP per person","observationValue":30596.5794898885,"observationPeriod":"2025","observationYear":2025,"ageYears":1,"maxAgeYears":2,"freshness":"current","isCurrent":true,"unit":"current US dollars per person","treatment":"Published source observation; current enough for this model"},{"indicator":"unemployment","label":"Unemployment","observationValue":1.102,"observationPeriod":"2025","observationYear":2025,"ageYears":1,"maxAgeYears":2,"freshness":"current","isCurrent":true,"unit":"percent of labor force","treatment":"Published source observation; current enough for this model"},{"indicator":"laborParticipation","label":"Labor-force participation","observationValue":70.429,"observationPeriod":"2025","observationYear":2025,"ageYears":1,"maxAgeYears":2,"freshness":"current","isCurrent":true,"unit":"percent of population age 15+","treatment":"Published source observation; current enough for this model"},{"indicator":"youthNeet","label":"Youth outside work or education","observationValue":null,"observationPeriod":null,"observationYear":null,"ageYears":null,"maxAgeYears":4,"freshness":"missing","isCurrent":false,"unit":"percent of youth","treatment":"No published observation returned"},{"indicator":"inflation","label":"Consumer-price inflation","observationValue":-0.137708855447902,"observationPeriod":"2025","observationYear":2025,"ageYears":1,"maxAgeYears":2,"freshness":"current","isCurrent":true,"unit":"percent annual consumer-price change","treatment":"Published source observation; current enough for this model"},{"indicator":"internet","label":"Internet use","observationValue":100,"observationPeriod":"2024","observationYear":2024,"ageYears":2,"maxAgeYears":3,"freshness":"current","isCurrent":true,"unit":"percent of population","treatment":"Published source observation; current enough for this model"},{"indicator":"electricity","label":"Rural electricity access","observationValue":100,"observationPeriod":"2024","observationYear":2024,"ageYears":2,"maxAgeYears":4,"freshness":"current","isCurrent":true,"unit":"percent of rural population","treatment":"Published source observation; current enough for this model"},{"indicator":"sanitation","label":"Basic sanitation access","observationValue":100,"observationPeriod":"2024","observationYear":2024,"ageYears":2,"maxAgeYears":5,"freshness":"current","isCurrent":true,"unit":"percent of population","treatment":"Published source observation; current enough for this model"},{"indicator":"lifeExpectancy","label":"Life expectancy","observationValue":81.423,"observationPeriod":"2024","observationYear":2024,"ageYears":2,"maxAgeYears":4,"freshness":"current","isCurrent":true,"unit":"years","treatment":"Published source observation; current enough for this model"},{"indicator":"childMortality","label":"Under-five mortality","observationValue":8.8,"observationPeriod":"2024","observationYear":2024,"ageYears":2,"maxAgeYears":4,"freshness":"current","isCurrent":true,"unit":"deaths per 1,000 live births","treatment":"Published source observation; current enough for this model"},{"indicator":"secondaryEnrollment","label":"Secondary-school enrollment","observationValue":98.8139181413527,"observationPeriod":"2024","observationYear":2024,"ageYears":2,"maxAgeYears":5,"freshness":"current","isCurrent":true,"unit":"percent gross enrollment","treatment":"Published source observation; current enough for this model"},{"indicator":"povertyNational","label":"National poverty rate","observationValue":null,"observationPeriod":null,"observationYear":null,"ageYears":null,"maxAgeYears":6,"freshness":"missing","isCurrent":false,"unit":"percent of population","treatment":"No published observation returned"},{"indicator":"povertyExtreme","label":"Extreme poverty rate","observationValue":null,"observationPeriod":null,"observationYear":null,"ageYears":null,"maxAgeYears":6,"freshness":"missing","isCurrent":false,"unit":"percent of population below $3/day","treatment":"No published observation returned"},{"indicator":"foodInsecurity","label":"Severe food insecurity","observationValue":null,"observationPeriod":null,"observationYear":null,"ageYears":null,"maxAgeYears":4,"freshness":"missing","isCurrent":false,"unit":"percent of population","treatment":"No published observation returned"},{"indicator":"socialProtection","label":"Social-protection coverage","observationValue":null,"observationPeriod":null,"observationYear":null,"ageYears":null,"maxAgeYears":6,"freshness":"missing","isCurrent":false,"unit":"percent of population","treatment":"No published observation returned"},{"indicator":"safetyNetCoverage","label":"Safety-net coverage","observationValue":null,"observationPeriod":null,"observationYear":null,"ageYears":null,"maxAgeYears":6,"freshness":"missing","isCurrent":false,"unit":"percent of population","treatment":"No published observation returned"},{"indicator":"trade","label":"Trade exposure","observationValue":157.480869430187,"observationPeriod":"2024","observationYear":2024,"ageYears":2,"maxAgeYears":2,"freshness":"current","isCurrent":true,"unit":"percent of GDP","treatment":"Published source observation; current enough for this model"},{"indicator":"mineralRents","label":"Mineral rents","observationValue":0,"observationPeriod":"2021","observationYear":2021,"ageYears":5,"maxAgeYears":3,"freshness":"stale","isCurrent":false,"unit":"percent of GDP","treatment":"Published historical observation; excluded from current grades and directions"},{"indicator":"population","label":"Population","observationValue":1600366,"observationPeriod":"2025","observationYear":2025,"ageYears":1,"maxAgeYears":2,"freshness":"current","isCurrent":true,"unit":"people","treatment":"Published source observation; current enough for this model"},{"indicator":"fdi","label":"Foreign direct investment","observationValue":5.72467195311559,"observationPeriod":"2024","observationYear":2024,"ageYears":2,"maxAgeYears":2,"freshness":"current","isCurrent":true,"unit":"percent of GDP","treatment":"Published source observation; current enough for this model"},{"indicator":"urbanization","label":"Urban population","observationValue":100,"observationPeriod":"2025","observationYear":2025,"ageYears":1,"maxAgeYears":3,"freshness":"current","isCurrent":true,"unit":"percent of population","treatment":"Published source observation; current enough for this model"},{"indicator":"pm25","label":"PM2.5 exposure","observationValue":56.5654845582004,"observationPeriod":"2023","observationYear":2023,"ageYears":3,"maxAgeYears":5,"freshness":"current","isCurrent":true,"unit":"micrograms per cubic meter","treatment":"Published source observation; current enough for this model"},{"indicator":"renewableEnergy","label":"Renewable energy share","observationValue":0,"observationPeriod":"2021","observationYear":2021,"ageYears":5,"maxAgeYears":4,"freshness":"stale","isCurrent":false,"unit":"percent of final energy consumption","treatment":"Published historical observation; excluded from current grades and directions"},{"indicator":"airPassengers","label":"Air passengers","observationValue":5734420,"observationPeriod":"2023","observationYear":2023,"ageYears":3,"maxAgeYears":3,"freshness":"current","isCurrent":true,"unit":"passengers","treatment":"Published source observation; current enough for this model"}],"sources":[{"name":"World Bank open development, poverty and social-protection indicators","sourceUrl":"https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/889392","sourceLastUpdated":"2026-07-13","retrievedAt":"2026-07-31T00:55:45.736Z","requestedIndicators":25,"respondingIndicators":25,"failedIndicators":[]},{"name":"Protected World Bank country snapshot, enriched by the WorldPredicta entity registry","checkedAt":"2026-07-31T00:55:45.736Z"}]}