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Local heat markers are context, not a global thermometer.","Likelihood weights are declared expert research weights, not fitted coefficients.","The result is not called calibrated until enough comparable forecasts resolve."]},{"id":"fs-18d7knm","schemaVersion":"WP-FORECAST-SCIENCE-1.0","scienceVersion":"WP-SCIENCE-0.2","forecastSlug":"imf-world-growth-below-three-2027","forecastModelVersion":"WP-ECO-0.1","question":"Will the IMF's first 2027 outlook update forecast world real GDP growth below 3.0% for 2027?","runAt":"2026-07-31T06:11:36.262Z","dataCutoff":"2026-07-30","method":"Expert-weighted log-odds aggregation","priorProbability":50,"priorBasis":"Neutral pre-release prior because the question predicts a future institutional forecast rather than realized GDP.","recomputedProbability":44,"publishedProbability":44,"reproducesPublishedProbability":true,"netEvidenceEffectPoints":-6,"exactInputCoveragePct":100,"evidenceQualityScore":85,"inputs":[{"source":"International Monetary Fund","dataset":"World Economic Outlook","observation":"The July 2026 update projected 3.4% world real GDP growth for 2027, 0.4 percentage points above the forecast threshold.","observationValue":3.4,"observationPeriod":"2027 projection in July 2026 update","unit":"percent real GDP growth","publishedAt":"2026-07-08T00:00:00Z","retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"Current release","sourceClass":"Official modeled source","modelRole":"Probability input","logOddsContribution":-0.241,"approximateProbabilityPointEffect":-6,"probabilityBefore":50,"probabilityAfter":44,"url":"https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2026/07/08/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2026"},{"source":"World Bank","dataset":"World Development Indicators","observation":"Country observations are retained as context but are not double-counted against the IMF forecast being predicted.","observationValue":null,"observationPeriod":"latest country-specific annual releases","unit":"context only","publishedAt":null,"retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"Current release","sourceClass":"Official primary source","modelRole":"Context only","logOddsContribution":0,"approximateProbabilityPointEffect":0,"probabilityBefore":44,"probabilityAfter":44,"url":"https://data.worldbank.org/"}],"qualityGates":{"calculationReproducible":true,"pointInTimeInputsRetained":true,"historicallyBacktested":false,"calibratedOnResolvedForecasts":false,"resolutionRulePublished":true},"limitations":["This forecasts another institution's forecast, not final realized GDP. Large revisions are common and country coverage is uneven.","Likelihood weights are declared expert research weights, not fitted coefficients.","The result is not called calibrated until enough comparable forecasts resolve."]},{"id":"fs-3j1zua","schemaVersion":"WP-FORECAST-SCIENCE-1.0","scienceVersion":"WP-SCIENCE-0.2","forecastSlug":"fao-food-prices-up-eight-2026","forecastModelVersion":"WP-FOOD-0.1","question":"Will the FAO Food Price Index for December 2026 be at least 8% above its December 2025 level?","runAt":"2026-07-31T06:11:36.262Z","dataCutoff":"2026-07-30","method":"Expert-weighted log-odds aggregation","priorProbability":35,"priorBasis":"Pre-release base rate for an 8% December-over-December rise in the global food basket.","recomputedProbability":39,"publishedProbability":39,"reproducesPublishedProbability":true,"netEvidenceEffectPoints":4,"exactInputCoveragePct":100,"evidenceQualityScore":100,"inputs":[{"source":"Food and Agriculture Organization","dataset":"FAO Food Price Index","observation":"The June 2026 index was 130.3 versus 124.3 in December 2025, a 4.8% increase toward the forecast's 8% threshold.","observationValue":130.3,"observationPeriod":"2026-06; 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this is intentionally low-maturity.","recomputedProbability":56,"publishedProbability":56,"reproducesPublishedProbability":true,"netEvidenceEffectPoints":0,"exactInputCoveragePct":0,"evidenceQualityScore":0,"inputs":[{"source":"UN Tourism","dataset":"World Tourism Barometer","observation":"No complete 2026 global-arrivals estimate was publicly verified at the model cutoff; the last located Q1 2025 release is too stale for a probability update.","observationValue":null,"observationPeriod":"2026 estimate unavailable at cutoff","unit":"international tourist arrivals","publishedAt":null,"retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"Unavailable","sourceClass":"Official modeled source","modelRole":"Resolution source","logOddsContribution":0,"approximateProbabilityPointEffect":0,"probabilityBefore":56,"probabilityAfter":56,"url":"https://www.unwto.org/un-tourism-world-tourism-barometer-data"},{"source":"OpenSky and Airplanes.live","dataset":"Observed aircraft state vectors used as movement context","observation":"Aircraft state vectors are excluded from the probability because they do not measure passengers, trip purpose or occupancy.","observationValue":null,"observationPeriod":"2026-07-30","unit":"context only","publishedAt":null,"retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"Unavailable","sourceClass":"Prototype context","modelRole":"Context only","logOddsContribution":0,"approximateProbabilityPointEffect":0,"probabilityBefore":56,"probabilityAfter":56,"url":"https://opensky-network.org/"}],"qualityGates":{"calculationReproducible":true,"pointInTimeInputsRetained":true,"historicallyBacktested":false,"calibratedOnResolvedForecasts":false,"resolutionRulePublished":true},"limitations":["Aircraft positions do not measure passengers, purpose of travel or occupancy. UN Tourism estimates can be revised.","Likelihood weights are declared expert research weights, not fitted coefficients.","The result is not called calibrated until enough comparable forecasts resolve."]}],"historicalDiagnostics":[{"forecastSlug":"us-inflation-december-2026","status":"Component diagnostic; not a full-model backtest","source":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics","sourceSeries":"CUSR0000SA0","sourceUrl":"https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0","retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:16.784Z","trainingWindow":"2001–2025","observations":25,"feature":"June CPI-U all-items year-over-year percentage change","target":"December CPI-U all-items year-over-year change is at least 3.0%","title":"Does June inflation contain useful information about December?","historyFeatureLabel":"JUNE YoY","historyTargetLabel":"DECEMBER YoY","verdict":"The feature improves probabilistic Brier score versus a constant base rate, but threshold accuracy does not beat always-NO.","method":"Single-feature logistic regression with L2 regularization λ=0.15; leave-one-year-out validation","fittedCoefficients":{"intercept":-2.786883,"juneYoYSlope":0.697539},"currentFeatureValue":3.463531,"shadowProbability":40.8,"validation":{"design":"Leave one calendar year out, refit on the other 24 years, then score the held-out year","brierScore":0.1759,"constantBaseRateBrier":0.2016,"brierImprovementPct":12.7,"thresholdAccuracyPct":72,"alwaysNoAccuracyPct":72},"history":[{"year":2001,"juneYoY":3.194,"decemberYoY":1.604,"outcome":0},{"year":2002,"juneYoY":1.069,"decemberYoY":2.48,"outcome":0},{"year":2003,"juneYoY":1.949,"decemberYoY":2.035,"outcome":0},{"year":2004,"juneYoY":3.168,"decemberYoY":3.342,"outcome":1},{"year":2005,"juneYoY":2.541,"decemberYoY":3.339,"outcome":1},{"year":2006,"juneYoY":4.182,"decemberYoY":2.524,"outcome":0},{"year":2007,"juneYoY":2.693,"decemberYoY":4.109,"outcome":1},{"year":2008,"juneYoY":4.936,"decemberYoY":-0.022,"outcome":0},{"year":2009,"juneYoY":-1.229,"decemberYoY":2.814,"outcome":0},{"year":2010,"juneYoY":1.122,"decemberYoY":1.438,"outcome":0},{"year":2011,"juneYoY":3.502,"decemberYoY":3.062,"outcome":1},{"year":2012,"juneYoY":1.654,"decemberYoY":1.76,"outcome":0},{"year":2013,"juneYoY":1.716,"decemberYoY":1.513,"outcome":0},{"year":2014,"juneYoY":2.059,"decemberYoY":0.653,"outcome":0},{"year":2015,"juneYoY":0.18,"decemberYoY":0.639,"outcome":0},{"year":2016,"juneYoY":1.079,"decemberYoY":2.051,"outcome":0},{"year":2017,"juneYoY":1.641,"decemberYoY":2.13,"outcome":0},{"year":2018,"juneYoY":2.808,"decemberYoY":2.002,"outcome":0},{"year":2019,"juneYoY":1.671,"decemberYoY":2.32,"outcome":0},{"year":2020,"juneYoY":0.717,"decemberYoY":1.32,"outcome":0},{"year":2021,"juneYoY":5.296,"decemberYoY":7.174,"outcome":1},{"year":2022,"juneYoY":8.979,"decemberYoY":6.405,"outcome":1},{"year":2023,"juneYoY":3.071,"decemberYoY":3.316,"outcome":1},{"year":2024,"juneYoY":2.97,"decemberYoY":2.871,"outcome":0},{"year":2025,"juneYoY":2.68,"decemberYoY":2.653,"outcome":0}],"caveats":["This tests one historical feature, not the complete expert-weighted WorldPredicta model.","Twenty-five annual observations are a small sample and include major structural breaks.","The 72% threshold accuracy only matches an always-NO classifier; the useful improvement is probabilistic Brier score, not hit rate.","Seasonally adjusted CPI levels can be revised. A production backtest must preserve the vintage available on each historical forecast date."]},{"forecastSlug":"fao-food-prices-up-eight-2026","status":"Component diagnostic; not a full-model backtest","source":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations","sourceSeries":"FAO Food Price Index, nominal monthly series","sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/","retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T20:05:00.000Z","trainingWindow":"1991–2025","observations":35,"feature":"June FAO Food Price Index change from the preceding December","target":"December FAO Food Price Index is at least 8% above the preceding December","title":"Does the June food-price path predict an 8% full-year rise?","historyFeatureLabel":"JUNE VS PRIOR DEC","historyTargetLabel":"DEC VS PRIOR DEC","verdict":"This single feature underperforms a constant base-rate probability and does not improve threshold accuracy. It is a warning against over-weighting the midyear index.","method":"Single-feature logistic regression with L2 regularization λ=0.15; leave-one-year-out validation","fittedCoefficients":{"intercept":-1.347742,"juneYoYSlope":0.116248},"currentFeatureValue":4.658635,"shadowProbability":30.9,"validation":{"design":"Leave one calendar year out, refit on the other 34 years, then score the held-out year","brierScore":0.1954,"constantBaseRateBrier":0.191,"brierImprovementPct":-2.3,"thresholdAccuracyPct":74.3,"alwaysNoAccuracyPct":74.3},"history":[{"year":1991,"juneYoY":-1.447,"decemberYoY":3.376,"outcome":0},{"year":1992,"juneYoY":2.488,"decemberYoY":-4.666,"outcome":0},{"year":1993,"juneYoY":0.816,"decemberYoY":5.546,"outcome":0},{"year":1994,"juneYoY":1.236,"decemberYoY":13.292,"outcome":1},{"year":1995,"juneYoY":2.729,"decemberYoY":6.685,"outcome":0},{"year":1996,"juneYoY":3.197,"decemberYoY":-8.568,"outcome":0},{"year":1997,"juneYoY":-1.678,"decemberYoY":-4.755,"outcome":0},{"year":1998,"juneYoY":-5.433,"decemberYoY":-8.664,"outcome":0},{"year":1999,"juneYoY":-11.897,"decemberYoY":-16.238,"outcome":0},{"year":2000,"juneYoY":4.031,"decemberYoY":5.182,"outcome":0},{"year":2001,"juneYoY":0.73,"decemberYoY":-0.365,"outcome":0},{"year":2002,"juneYoY":-5.495,"decemberYoY":2.564,"outcome":0},{"year":2003,"juneYoY":0.714,"decemberYoY":12.321,"outcome":1},{"year":2004,"juneYoY":5.564,"decemberYoY":4.928,"outcome":0},{"year":2005,"juneYoY":2.121,"decemberYoY":5.758,"outcome":0},{"year":2006,"juneYoY":2.292,"decemberYoY":12.894,"outcome":1},{"year":2007,"juneYoY":15.99,"decemberYoY":45.558,"outcome":1},{"year":2008,"juneYoY":15.693,"decemberYoY":-24.76,"outcome":0},{"year":2009,"juneYoY":8.227,"decemberYoY":16.802,"outcome":1},{"year":2010,"juneYoY":-4.861,"decemberYoY":28.373,"outcome":1},{"year":2011,"juneYoY":4.173,"decemberYoY":-5.796,"outcome":0},{"year":2012,"juneYoY":-5.004,"decemberYoY":0.738,"outcome":0},{"year":2013,"juneYoY":-1.547,"decemberYoY":-3.746,"outcome":0},{"year":2014,"juneYoY":0.846,"decemberYoY":-10.998,"outcome":0},{"year":2015,"juneYoY":-10.076,"decemberYoY":-17.3,"outcome":0},{"year":2016,"juneYoY":7.816,"decemberYoY":9.54,"outcome":1},{"year":2017,"juneYoY":2.623,"decemberYoY":1.154,"outcome":0},{"year":2018,"juneYoY":0.415,"decemberYoY":-4.564,"outcome":0},{"year":2019,"juneYoY":3.696,"decemberYoY":9.565,"outcome":1},{"year":2020,"juneYoY":-7.639,"decemberYoY":7.639,"outcome":0},{"year":2021,"juneYoY":15.576,"decemberYoY":23.226,"outcome":1},{"year":2022,"juneYoY":16.455,"decemberYoY":-0.449,"outcome":0},{"year":2023,"juneYoY":-7.588,"decemberYoY":-10.518,"outcome":0},{"year":2024,"juneYoY":1.595,"decemberYoY":6.885,"outcome":0},{"year":2025,"juneYoY":0.628,"decemberYoY":-2.2,"outcome":0}],"caveats":["This tests one historical feature, not the complete expert-weighted WorldPredicta food-price model.","The negative Brier improvement means this feature should not be treated as validated predictive skill.","Commodity shocks can reverse sharply between June and December; 2008, 2010 and 2022 illustrate that instability.","FAO can revise recent monthly index values. A production backtest must retain the first-published vintage available at each historical forecast date."]}],"history":[{"id":"fs-1nxbou9","forecastSlug":"us-inflation-december-2026","scienceVersion":"WP-SCIENCE-0.2","forecastModelVersion":"WP-ECO-0.1","runAt":"2026-07-30T15:33:18.729Z","dataCutoff":"2026-07-30","priorProbability":41,"posteriorProbability":49,"exactInputCoveragePct":100,"evidenceQualityScore":100,"inputs":[{"source":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics","dataset":"Consumer Price Index, all urban consumers, all items","observation":"All-items CPI rose 3.5% over the 12 months ending June 2026.","observationValue":3.5,"observationPeriod":"2026-06","unit":"percent year over year","publishedAt":"2026-07-14T08:30:00-04:00","retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"First release","sourceClass":"Official primary source","modelRole":"Probability input","logOddsContribution":0.32,"approximateProbabilityPointEffect":7.9,"probabilityBefore":41,"probabilityAfter":48.9,"url":"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_07142026.htm"},{"source":"IMF","dataset":"Consumer prices and World Economic Outlook context","observation":"Macroeconomic context only; no second CPI value is allowed to duplicate the BLS input.","observationValue":null,"observationPeriod":"2026-07","unit":"context only","publishedAt":"2026-07-08T00:00:00Z","retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"Current release","sourceClass":"Official modeled source","modelRole":"Context only","logOddsContribution":0,"approximateProbabilityPointEffect":0,"probabilityBefore":48.9,"probabilityAfter":48.9,"url":"https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2026/07/08/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2026"}],"limitations":["Energy shocks and methodology revisions can move headline inflation abruptly. This initial model has no published WorldPredicta track record yet.","Likelihood weights are declared expert research weights, not fitted coefficients.","The result is not called calibrated until enough comparable forecasts resolve."]},{"id":"fs-1mdvk8g","forecastSlug":"strategic-sea-lane-drop-2026","scienceVersion":"WP-SCIENCE-0.2","forecastModelVersion":"WP-FLOW-0.1","runAt":"2026-07-30T15:33:18.729Z","dataCutoff":"2026-07-30","priorProbability":30,"posteriorProbability":36,"exactInputCoveragePct":100,"evidenceQualityScore":85,"inputs":[{"source":"IMF PortWatch","dataset":"Port and strategic chokepoint vessel-flow indicators","observation":"Four of 13 monitored passages were on flow watch; two were classified as disrupted in the July 26 snapshot.","observationValue":4,"observationPeriod":"2026-07-26","unit":"passages on flow watch out of 13","publishedAt":"2026-07-26T00:00:00Z","retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"Current release","sourceClass":"Official modeled source","modelRole":"Probability input","logOddsContribution":0.274,"approximateProbabilityPointEffect":6,"probabilityBefore":30,"probabilityAfter":36,"url":"https://portwatch.imf.org/"}],"limitations":["AIS coverage, vessel classification and calendar effects vary. A traffic decline does not by itself identify the cause.","Likelihood weights are declared expert research weights, not fitted coefficients.","The result is not called calibrated until enough comparable forecasts resolve."]},{"id":"fs-8wdd1w","forecastSlug":"2026-top-three-warmest","scienceVersion":"WP-SCIENCE-0.2","forecastModelVersion":"WP-CLIMATE-0.1","runAt":"2026-07-30T15:33:18.729Z","dataCutoff":"2026-07-30","priorProbability":70,"posteriorProbability":78,"exactInputCoveragePct":100,"evidenceQualityScore":85,"inputs":[{"source":"Copernicus Climate Change Service","dataset":"ERA5 global surface air temperature","observation":"June 2026 ranked second warmest globally; it was 0.56°C above 1991–2020 and the trailing 12 months were 1.43°C above 1850–1900.","observationValue":2,"observationPeriod":"2026-06","unit":"monthly global rank; anomaly details retained in observation","publishedAt":"2026-07-09T00:00:00Z","retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"Modeled estimate","sourceClass":"Official modeled source","modelRole":"Probability input","logOddsContribution":0.419,"approximateProbabilityPointEffect":8,"probabilityBefore":70,"probabilityAfter":78,"url":"https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-june-2026"},{"source":"Open-Meteo","dataset":"Current and recent city-level temperature observations","observation":"Unavailable at the publication cutoff; city observations are excluded from the global-rank probability.","observationValue":null,"observationPeriod":"2026-07-30","unit":"context only","publishedAt":null,"retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"Unavailable","sourceClass":"Prototype context","modelRole":"Context only","logOddsContribution":0,"approximateProbabilityPointEffect":0,"probabilityBefore":78,"probabilityAfter":78,"url":"https://open-meteo.com/"}],"limitations":["The current WorldPredicta formula is a baseline research model and has not been calibrated across a long hindcast. Local heat markers are context, not a global thermometer.","Likelihood weights are declared expert research weights, not fitted coefficients.","The result is not called calibrated until enough comparable forecasts resolve."]},{"id":"fs-18d7knm","forecastSlug":"imf-world-growth-below-three-2027","scienceVersion":"WP-SCIENCE-0.2","forecastModelVersion":"WP-ECO-0.1","runAt":"2026-07-30T15:33:18.729Z","dataCutoff":"2026-07-30","priorProbability":50,"posteriorProbability":44,"exactInputCoveragePct":100,"evidenceQualityScore":85,"inputs":[{"source":"International Monetary Fund","dataset":"World Economic Outlook","observation":"The July 2026 update projected 3.4% world real GDP growth for 2027, 0.4 percentage points above the forecast threshold.","observationValue":3.4,"observationPeriod":"2027 projection in July 2026 update","unit":"percent real GDP growth","publishedAt":"2026-07-08T00:00:00Z","retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"Current release","sourceClass":"Official modeled source","modelRole":"Probability input","logOddsContribution":-0.241,"approximateProbabilityPointEffect":-6,"probabilityBefore":50,"probabilityAfter":44,"url":"https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2026/07/08/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2026"},{"source":"World Bank","dataset":"World Development Indicators","observation":"Country observations are retained as context but are not double-counted against the IMF forecast being predicted.","observationValue":null,"observationPeriod":"latest country-specific annual releases","unit":"context only","publishedAt":null,"retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"Current release","sourceClass":"Official primary source","modelRole":"Context only","logOddsContribution":0,"approximateProbabilityPointEffect":0,"probabilityBefore":44,"probabilityAfter":44,"url":"https://data.worldbank.org/"}],"limitations":["This forecasts another institution's forecast, not final realized GDP. Large revisions are common and country coverage is uneven.","Likelihood weights are declared expert research weights, not fitted coefficients.","The result is not called calibrated until enough comparable forecasts resolve."]},{"id":"fs-3j1zua","forecastSlug":"fao-food-prices-up-eight-2026","scienceVersion":"WP-SCIENCE-0.2","forecastModelVersion":"WP-FOOD-0.1","runAt":"2026-07-30T15:33:18.729Z","dataCutoff":"2026-07-30","priorProbability":35,"posteriorProbability":39,"exactInputCoveragePct":100,"evidenceQualityScore":100,"inputs":[{"source":"Food and Agriculture Organization","dataset":"FAO Food Price Index","observation":"The June 2026 index was 130.3 versus 124.3 in December 2025, a 4.8% increase toward the forecast's 8% threshold.","observationValue":130.3,"observationPeriod":"2026-06; comparison baseline 2025-12","unit":"index points; December 2025 baseline 124.3","publishedAt":"2026-07-03T00:00:00Z","retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"First release","sourceClass":"Official primary source","modelRole":"Probability input","logOddsContribution":0.168,"approximateProbabilityPointEffect":3.9,"probabilityBefore":35,"probabilityAfter":38.9,"url":"https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/"},{"source":"Open-Meteo","dataset":"Current temperature anomalies for selected cities","observation":"Unavailable at the publication cutoff and excluded because selected cities are not a crop-yield model.","observationValue":null,"observationPeriod":"2026-07-30","unit":"context only","publishedAt":null,"retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"Unavailable","sourceClass":"Prototype context","modelRole":"Context only","logOddsContribution":0,"approximateProbabilityPointEffect":0,"probabilityBefore":38.9,"probabilityAfter":38.9,"url":"https://open-meteo.com/"}],"limitations":["The present heat layer is city-based and is not yet a global crop-weather or yield model.","Likelihood weights are declared expert research weights, not fitted coefficients.","The result is not called calibrated until enough comparable forecasts resolve."]},{"id":"fs-7jxccx","forecastSlug":"tourism-above-2019-by-five-2026","scienceVersion":"WP-SCIENCE-0.2","forecastModelVersion":"WP-MOVE-0.1","runAt":"2026-07-30T15:33:18.729Z","dataCutoff":"2026-07-30","priorProbability":56,"posteriorProbability":56,"exactInputCoveragePct":0,"evidenceQualityScore":0,"inputs":[{"source":"UN Tourism","dataset":"World Tourism Barometer","observation":"No complete 2026 global-arrivals estimate was publicly verified at the model cutoff; the last located Q1 2025 release is too stale for a probability update.","observationValue":null,"observationPeriod":"2026 estimate unavailable at cutoff","unit":"international tourist arrivals","publishedAt":null,"retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"Unavailable","sourceClass":"Official modeled source","modelRole":"Resolution source","logOddsContribution":0,"approximateProbabilityPointEffect":0,"probabilityBefore":56,"probabilityAfter":56,"url":"https://www.unwto.org/un-tourism-world-tourism-barometer-data"},{"source":"OpenSky and Airplanes.live","dataset":"Observed aircraft state vectors used as movement context","observation":"Aircraft state vectors are excluded from the probability because they do not measure passengers, trip purpose or occupancy.","observationValue":null,"observationPeriod":"2026-07-30","unit":"context only","publishedAt":null,"retrievedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:00Z","revisionStatus":"Unavailable","sourceClass":"Prototype context","modelRole":"Context only","logOddsContribution":0,"approximateProbabilityPointEffect":0,"probabilityBefore":56,"probabilityAfter":56,"url":"https://opensky-network.org/"}],"limitations":["Aircraft positions do not measure passengers, purpose of travel or occupancy. UN Tourism estimates can be revised.","Likelihood weights are declared expert research weights, not fitted coefficients.","The result is not called calibrated until enough comparable forecasts resolve."]}]}