{"generatedAt":"2026-10-31T20:32:10.608Z","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-API-1.0","methodology":"/forecasts/trials","scorecard":{"total":300,"pending":72,"resolved":228,"occurred":44,"didNotOccur":184,"brierScore":0.0632,"brierSkillVsFiftyPct":0.7472,"accuracyAtFiftyPct":93.4,"learningState":"assessable","targets":12,"latestIssuedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","latestResolvedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z"},"scorecardScope":{"type":"bounded-ledger","ledgerLimit":5000,"trialsLoaded":300,"atCapacity":false},"count":300,"matchingCount":300,"filters":{"status":"all","limit":500},"truthBoundary":"These are automatically issued one-day weather calibration trials. They test unattended forecasting, scoring and adaptive bias correction; they are not the strategic forecast ledger and do not establish skill in economics, markets or geopolitics.","trials":[{"id":"aft-1b1uvox","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"cairo","targetLabel":"Cairo","region":"North Africa","question":"Will Cairo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Nov 1, 2026 reach at least 30.3°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","targetDate":"2026-11-01","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-06T12:00:00.000Z","probability":30,"thresholdC":30.3,"rawForecastC":29.4,"adjustedForecastC":29.6,"learnedBiasC":0.2,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-12","baselineEnd":"2026-10-26","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":29.4,\"learnedBiasC\":0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":18,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":30.3,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":29.4,"learnedBiasC":0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":18,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":30.3,"publicationLock":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1ltp3lb","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"delhi","targetLabel":"Delhi","region":"South Asia","question":"Will Delhi's UTC-day maximum temperature on Nov 1, 2026 reach at least 33.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","targetDate":"2026-11-01","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-06T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":33.6,"rawForecastC":27.6,"adjustedForecastC":27,"learnedBiasC":-0.6,"uncertaintyC":1.9,"baselineStart":"2026-09-12","baselineEnd":"2026-10-26","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":27.6,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.6,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":18,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.9,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":27.6,"learnedBiasC":-0.6,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":18,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.9,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-45drqv","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"houston","targetLabel":"Houston","region":"North America","question":"Will Houston's UTC-day maximum temperature on Nov 1, 2026 reach at least 31.4°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","targetDate":"2026-11-01","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-06T12:00:00.000Z","probability":8,"thresholdC":31.4,"rawForecastC":29.6,"adjustedForecastC":29.4,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-12","baselineEnd":"2026-10-26","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":29.6,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":18,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":31.4,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":29.6,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":18,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":31.4,"publicationLock":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-smvmrb","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"lagos","targetLabel":"Lagos","region":"West Africa","question":"Will Lagos's UTC-day maximum temperature on Nov 1, 2026 reach at least 30.4°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","targetDate":"2026-11-01","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-06T12:00:00.000Z","probability":59,"thresholdC":30.4,"rawForecastC":29.9,"adjustedForecastC":30.7,"learnedBiasC":0.8,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-12","baselineEnd":"2026-10-26","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":29.9,\"learnedBiasC\":0.8,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":18,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":30.4,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":29.9,"learnedBiasC":0.8,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":18,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":30.4,"publicationLock":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-f0cbsu","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"madrid","targetLabel":"Madrid","region":"Europe","question":"Will Madrid's UTC-day maximum temperature on Nov 1, 2026 reach at least 25.5°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","targetDate":"2026-11-01","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-06T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":25.5,"rawForecastC":19.9,"adjustedForecastC":20.3,"learnedBiasC":0.4,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-12","baselineEnd":"2026-10-26","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":19.9,\"learnedBiasC\":0.4,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":18,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":25.5,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":19.9,"learnedBiasC":0.4,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":18,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":25.5,"publicationLock":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1f13qj2","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"mexico-city","targetLabel":"Mexico City","region":"North America","question":"Will Mexico City's UTC-day maximum temperature on Nov 1, 2026 reach at least 23.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","targetDate":"2026-11-01","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-06T12:00:00.000Z","probability":95,"thresholdC":23.7,"rawForecastC":26.9,"adjustedForecastC":26.9,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-12","baselineEnd":"2026-10-26","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":26.9,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":18,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":23.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":26.9,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":18,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":23.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-zwvejo","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"phoenix","targetLabel":"Phoenix","region":"North America","question":"Will Phoenix's UTC-day maximum temperature on Nov 1, 2026 reach at least 36.2°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","targetDate":"2026-11-01","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-06T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":36.2,"rawForecastC":21.8,"adjustedForecastC":21.4,"learnedBiasC":-0.4,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-12","baselineEnd":"2026-10-26","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":21.8,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.4,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":18,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":36.2,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":21.8,"learnedBiasC":-0.4,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":18,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":36.2,"publicationLock":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1ei7gq8","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sao-paulo","targetLabel":"São Paulo","region":"South America","question":"Will São Paulo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Nov 1, 2026 reach at least 27.2°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","targetDate":"2026-11-01","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-06T12:00:00.000Z","probability":13,"thresholdC":27.2,"rawForecastC":25.8,"adjustedForecastC":25.6,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-12","baselineEnd":"2026-10-26","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":25.8,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":18,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":27.2,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":25.8,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":18,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":27.2,"publicationLock":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-y4suuq","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"shanghai","targetLabel":"Shanghai","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Shanghai's UTC-day maximum temperature on Nov 1, 2026 reach at least 26.1°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","targetDate":"2026-11-01","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-06T12:00:00.000Z","probability":53,"thresholdC":26.1,"rawForecastC":26.3,"adjustedForecastC":26.2,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-12","baselineEnd":"2026-10-26","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":26.3,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":18,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":26.1,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":26.3,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":18,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":26.1,"publicationLock":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-qr0g67","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"singapore","targetLabel":"Singapore","region":"Southeast Asia","question":"Will Singapore's UTC-day maximum temperature on Nov 1, 2026 reach at least 33.2°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","targetDate":"2026-11-01","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-06T12:00:00.000Z","probability":8,"thresholdC":33.2,"rawForecastC":30.2,"adjustedForecastC":31.2,"learnedBiasC":1,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-12","baselineEnd":"2026-10-26","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":30.2,\"learnedBiasC\":1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":18,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.2,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":30.2,"learnedBiasC":1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":18,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.2,"publicationLock":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-p56hut","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sydney","targetLabel":"Sydney","region":"Oceania","question":"Will Sydney's UTC-day maximum temperature on Nov 1, 2026 reach at least 25.0°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","targetDate":"2026-11-01","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-06T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":25,"rawForecastC":22.3,"adjustedForecastC":22.5,"learnedBiasC":0.2,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-12","baselineEnd":"2026-10-26","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":22.3,\"learnedBiasC\":0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":18,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":25,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":22.3,"learnedBiasC":0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":18,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":25,"publicationLock":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1i6xcgz","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"tokyo","targetLabel":"Tokyo","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Tokyo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Nov 1, 2026 reach at least 25.2°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","targetDate":"2026-11-01","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-06T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":25.2,"rawForecastC":20.1,"adjustedForecastC":21.9,"learnedBiasC":1.8,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-12","baselineEnd":"2026-10-26","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":20.1,\"learnedBiasC\":1.8,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":18,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":25.2,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":20.1,"learnedBiasC":1.8,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":18,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":25.2,"publicationLock":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-j6zjdn","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"cairo","targetLabel":"Cairo","region":"North Africa","question":"Will Cairo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 31, 2026 reach at least 30.3°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","targetDate":"2026-10-31","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-05T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":30.3,"rawForecastC":26.5,"adjustedForecastC":26.7,"learnedBiasC":0.2,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-11","baselineEnd":"2026-10-25","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":26.5,\"learnedBiasC\":0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":17,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":30.3,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":26.5,"learnedBiasC":0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":17,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":30.3,"publicationLock":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-p5ath1","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"delhi","targetLabel":"Delhi","region":"South Asia","question":"Will Delhi's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 31, 2026 reach at least 33.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","targetDate":"2026-10-31","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-05T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":33.6,"rawForecastC":28.2,"adjustedForecastC":27.7,"learnedBiasC":-0.5,"uncertaintyC":1.9,"baselineStart":"2026-09-11","baselineEnd":"2026-10-25","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":28.2,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.5,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":17,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.9,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":28.2,"learnedBiasC":-0.5,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":17,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.9,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-f8wlrx","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"houston","targetLabel":"Houston","region":"North America","question":"Will Houston's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 31, 2026 reach at least 31.4°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","targetDate":"2026-10-31","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-05T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":31.4,"rawForecastC":29.1,"adjustedForecastC":28.9,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-11","baselineEnd":"2026-10-25","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":29.1,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":17,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":31.4,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":29.1,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":17,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":31.4,"publicationLock":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-13qegsd","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"lagos","targetLabel":"Lagos","region":"West Africa","question":"Will Lagos's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 31, 2026 reach at least 30.4°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","targetDate":"2026-10-31","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-05T12:00:00.000Z","probability":33,"thresholdC":30.4,"rawForecastC":29,"adjustedForecastC":29.8,"learnedBiasC":0.8,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-11","baselineEnd":"2026-10-25","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":29,\"learnedBiasC\":0.8,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":17,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":30.4,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":29,"learnedBiasC":0.8,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":17,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":30.4,"publicationLock":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1pbhto","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"madrid","targetLabel":"Madrid","region":"Europe","question":"Will Madrid's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 31, 2026 reach at least 26.0°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","targetDate":"2026-10-31","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-05T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":26,"rawForecastC":20.6,"adjustedForecastC":20.9,"learnedBiasC":0.3,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-11","baselineEnd":"2026-10-25","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":20.6,\"learnedBiasC\":0.3,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":17,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":26,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":20.6,"learnedBiasC":0.3,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":17,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":26,"publicationLock":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-27hrrg","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"mexico-city","targetLabel":"Mexico City","region":"North America","question":"Will Mexico City's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 31, 2026 reach at least 24.0°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","targetDate":"2026-10-31","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-05T12:00:00.000Z","probability":95,"thresholdC":24,"rawForecastC":27.2,"adjustedForecastC":27.1,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-11","baselineEnd":"2026-10-25","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":27.2,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":17,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":24,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":27.2,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":17,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":24,"publicationLock":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1l0jq7q","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"phoenix","targetLabel":"Phoenix","region":"North America","question":"Will Phoenix's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 31, 2026 reach at least 36.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","targetDate":"2026-10-31","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-05T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":36.7,"rawForecastC":25.2,"adjustedForecastC":24.8,"learnedBiasC":-0.4,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-11","baselineEnd":"2026-10-25","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":25.2,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.4,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":17,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":36.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":25.2,"learnedBiasC":-0.4,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":17,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":36.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1921vsy","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sao-paulo","targetLabel":"São Paulo","region":"South America","question":"Will São Paulo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 31, 2026 reach at least 28.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","targetDate":"2026-10-31","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-05T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":28.6,"rawForecastC":22.8,"adjustedForecastC":22.5,"learnedBiasC":-0.3,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-11","baselineEnd":"2026-10-25","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":22.8,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.3,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":17,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":28.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":22.8,"learnedBiasC":-0.3,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":17,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":28.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1sil70w","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"shanghai","targetLabel":"Shanghai","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Shanghai's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 31, 2026 reach at least 26.9°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","targetDate":"2026-10-31","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-05T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":26.9,"rawForecastC":23,"adjustedForecastC":22.8,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-11","baselineEnd":"2026-10-25","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":23,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":17,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":26.9,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":23,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":17,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":26.9,"publicationLock":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-a2qvz9","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"singapore","targetLabel":"Singapore","region":"Southeast Asia","question":"Will Singapore's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 31, 2026 reach at least 33.3°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","targetDate":"2026-10-31","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-05T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":33.3,"rawForecastC":29.4,"adjustedForecastC":30.4,"learnedBiasC":1,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-11","baselineEnd":"2026-10-25","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":29.4,\"learnedBiasC\":1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":17,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.3,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":29.4,"learnedBiasC":1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":17,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.3,"publicationLock":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1wej5in","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sydney","targetLabel":"Sydney","region":"Oceania","question":"Will Sydney's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 31, 2026 reach at least 25.4°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","targetDate":"2026-10-31","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-05T12:00:00.000Z","probability":65,"thresholdC":25.4,"rawForecastC":25.8,"adjustedForecastC":25.9,"learnedBiasC":0.1,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-11","baselineEnd":"2026-10-25","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":25.8,\"learnedBiasC\":0.1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":17,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":25.4,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":25.8,"learnedBiasC":0.1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":17,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":25.4,"publicationLock":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-ly0kqx","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"tokyo","targetLabel":"Tokyo","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Tokyo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 31, 2026 reach at least 25.2°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","targetDate":"2026-10-31","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-05T12:00:00.000Z","probability":56,"thresholdC":25.2,"rawForecastC":23.5,"adjustedForecastC":25.4,"learnedBiasC":1.9,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-11","baselineEnd":"2026-10-25","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":23.5,\"learnedBiasC\":1.9,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":17,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":25.2,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":23.5,"learnedBiasC":1.9,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":17,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":25.2,"publicationLock":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-iwzxoo","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"cairo","targetLabel":"Cairo","region":"North Africa","question":"Will Cairo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 30, 2026 reach at least 30.4°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","targetDate":"2026-10-30","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-04T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":30.4,"rawForecastC":26.6,"adjustedForecastC":26.7,"learnedBiasC":0.1,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-10","baselineEnd":"2026-10-24","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":26.6,\"learnedBiasC\":0.1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":16,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":30.4,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":26.6,"learnedBiasC":0.1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":16,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":30.4,"publicationLock":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-ovb7s2","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"delhi","targetLabel":"Delhi","region":"South Asia","question":"Will Delhi's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 30, 2026 reach at least 33.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","targetDate":"2026-10-30","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-04T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":33.6,"rawForecastC":27.4,"adjustedForecastC":26.9,"learnedBiasC":-0.5,"uncertaintyC":2,"baselineStart":"2026-09-10","baselineEnd":"2026-10-24","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":27.4,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.5,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":16,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":2,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":27.4,"learnedBiasC":-0.5,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":16,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":2,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-eyx02y","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"houston","targetLabel":"Houston","region":"North America","question":"Will Houston's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 30, 2026 reach at least 31.4°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","targetDate":"2026-10-30","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-04T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":31.4,"rawForecastC":26.2,"adjustedForecastC":26,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-10","baselineEnd":"2026-10-24","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":26.2,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":16,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":31.4,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":26.2,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":16,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":31.4,"publicationLock":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-13gev3e","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"lagos","targetLabel":"Lagos","region":"West Africa","question":"Will Lagos's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 30, 2026 reach at least 30.2°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","targetDate":"2026-10-30","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-04T12:00:00.000Z","probability":65,"thresholdC":30.2,"rawForecastC":30,"adjustedForecastC":30.7,"learnedBiasC":0.7,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-10","baselineEnd":"2026-10-24","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":30,\"learnedBiasC\":0.7,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":16,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":30.2,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":30,"learnedBiasC":0.7,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":16,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":30.2,"publicationLock":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1zb3in","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"madrid","targetLabel":"Madrid","region":"Europe","question":"Will Madrid's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 30, 2026 reach at least 26.5°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","targetDate":"2026-10-30","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-04T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":26.5,"rawForecastC":21.9,"adjustedForecastC":22.3,"learnedBiasC":0.4,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-10","baselineEnd":"2026-10-24","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":21.9,\"learnedBiasC\":0.4,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":16,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":26.5,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":21.9,"learnedBiasC":0.4,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":16,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":26.5,"publicationLock":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-2hhdgf","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"mexico-city","targetLabel":"Mexico City","region":"North America","question":"Will Mexico City's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 30, 2026 reach at least 24.1°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","targetDate":"2026-10-30","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-04T12:00:00.000Z","probability":83,"thresholdC":24.1,"rawForecastC":25.5,"adjustedForecastC":25.4,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-10","baselineEnd":"2026-10-24","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":25.5,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":16,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":24.1,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":25.5,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":16,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":24.1,"publicationLock":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1lajbwp","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"phoenix","targetLabel":"Phoenix","region":"North America","question":"Will Phoenix's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 30, 2026 reach at least 36.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","targetDate":"2026-10-30","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-04T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":36.7,"rawForecastC":28.8,"adjustedForecastC":28.5,"learnedBiasC":-0.3,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-10","baselineEnd":"2026-10-24","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":28.8,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.3,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":16,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":36.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":28.8,"learnedBiasC":-0.3,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":16,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":36.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-19c1hhx","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sao-paulo","targetLabel":"São Paulo","region":"South America","question":"Will São Paulo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 30, 2026 reach at least 28.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","targetDate":"2026-10-30","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-04T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":28.6,"rawForecastC":25.3,"adjustedForecastC":24.9,"learnedBiasC":-0.4,"uncertaintyC":1.6,"baselineStart":"2026-09-10","baselineEnd":"2026-10-24","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":25.3,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.4,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":16,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.6,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":28.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":25.3,"learnedBiasC":-0.4,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":16,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.6,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":28.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1sskspv","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"shanghai","targetLabel":"Shanghai","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Shanghai's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 30, 2026 reach at least 27.2°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","targetDate":"2026-10-30","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-04T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":27.2,"rawForecastC":22.4,"adjustedForecastC":22.3,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-10","baselineEnd":"2026-10-24","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":22.4,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":16,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":27.2,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":22.4,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":16,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":27.2,"publicationLock":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-9sraaa","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"singapore","targetLabel":"Singapore","region":"Southeast Asia","question":"Will Singapore's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 30, 2026 reach at least 33.3°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","targetDate":"2026-10-30","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-04T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":33.3,"rawForecastC":29.5,"adjustedForecastC":30.7,"learnedBiasC":1.2,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-10","baselineEnd":"2026-10-24","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":29.5,\"learnedBiasC\":1.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":16,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.3,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":29.5,"learnedBiasC":1.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":16,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.3,"publicationLock":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1w4jjto","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sydney","targetLabel":"Sydney","region":"Oceania","question":"Will Sydney's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 30, 2026 reach at least 25.2°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","targetDate":"2026-10-30","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-04T12:00:00.000Z","probability":84,"thresholdC":25.2,"rawForecastC":26.6,"adjustedForecastC":26.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-10","baselineEnd":"2026-10-24","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":26.6,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":16,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":25.2,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":26.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":16,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":25.2,"publicationLock":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-lo0z1y","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"tokyo","targetLabel":"Tokyo","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Tokyo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 30, 2026 reach at least 25.2°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","targetDate":"2026-10-30","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-04T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":25.2,"rawForecastC":21.2,"adjustedForecastC":22.8,"learnedBiasC":1.6,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-10","baselineEnd":"2026-10-24","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":21.2,\"learnedBiasC\":1.6,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":16,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":25.2,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":21.2,"learnedBiasC":1.6,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":16,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":25.2,"publicationLock":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-i34a3q","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"cairo","targetLabel":"Cairo","region":"North Africa","question":"Will Cairo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 29, 2026 reach at least 30.4°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","targetDate":"2026-10-29","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-03T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":30.4,"rawForecastC":27.9,"adjustedForecastC":27.9,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-09","baselineEnd":"2026-10-23","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":27.9,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":15,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":30.4,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":27.9,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":15,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":30.4,"publicationLock":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-o1fk74","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"delhi","targetLabel":"Delhi","region":"South Asia","question":"Will Delhi's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 29, 2026 reach at least 34.1°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","targetDate":"2026-10-29","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-03T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":34.1,"rawForecastC":27.3,"adjustedForecastC":26.8,"learnedBiasC":-0.5,"uncertaintyC":2,"baselineStart":"2026-09-09","baselineEnd":"2026-10-23","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":27.3,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.5,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":15,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":2,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":34.1,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":27.3,"learnedBiasC":-0.5,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":15,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":2,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":34.1,"publicationLock":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-9p7peg","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"houston","targetLabel":"Houston","region":"North America","question":"Will Houston's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 29, 2026 reach at least 31.8°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","targetDate":"2026-10-29","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-03T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":31.8,"rawForecastC":28.3,"adjustedForecastC":28,"learnedBiasC":-0.3,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-09","baselineEnd":"2026-10-23","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":28.3,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.3,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":15,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":31.8,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":28.3,"learnedBiasC":-0.3,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":15,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":31.8,"publicationLock":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-y6pkew","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"lagos","targetLabel":"Lagos","region":"West Africa","question":"Will Lagos's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 29, 2026 reach at least 30.2°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","targetDate":"2026-10-29","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-03T12:00:00.000Z","probability":86,"thresholdC":30.2,"rawForecastC":31,"adjustedForecastC":31.7,"learnedBiasC":0.7,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-09","baselineEnd":"2026-10-23","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":31,\"learnedBiasC\":0.7,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":15,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":30.2,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":31,"learnedBiasC":0.7,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":15,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":30.2,"publicationLock":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-2t6r3l","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"madrid","targetLabel":"Madrid","region":"Europe","question":"Will Madrid's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 29, 2026 reach at least 26.8°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","targetDate":"2026-10-29","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-03T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":26.8,"rawForecastC":20.7,"adjustedForecastC":21,"learnedBiasC":0.3,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-09","baselineEnd":"2026-10-23","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":20.7,\"learnedBiasC\":0.3,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":15,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":26.8,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":20.7,"learnedBiasC":0.3,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":15,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":26.8,"publicationLock":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-3bd11d","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"mexico-city","targetLabel":"Mexico City","region":"North America","question":"Will Mexico City's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 29, 2026 reach at least 24.1°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","targetDate":"2026-10-29","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-03T12:00:00.000Z","probability":30,"thresholdC":24.1,"rawForecastC":23.4,"adjustedForecastC":23.4,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-09","baselineEnd":"2026-10-23","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":23.4,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":15,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":24.1,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":23.4,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":15,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":24.1,"publicationLock":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-mltup7","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"phoenix","targetLabel":"Phoenix","region":"North America","question":"Will Phoenix's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 29, 2026 reach at least 36.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","targetDate":"2026-10-29","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-03T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":36.7,"rawForecastC":28.9,"adjustedForecastC":28.5,"learnedBiasC":-0.4,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-09","baselineEnd":"2026-10-23","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":28.9,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.4,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":15,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":36.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":28.9,"learnedBiasC":-0.4,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":15,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":36.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-anc0af","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sao-paulo","targetLabel":"São Paulo","region":"South America","question":"Will São Paulo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 29, 2026 reach at least 28.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","targetDate":"2026-10-29","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-03T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":28.6,"rawForecastC":21.2,"adjustedForecastC":21,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-09","baselineEnd":"2026-10-23","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":21.2,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":15,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":28.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":21.2,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":15,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":28.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-yjoylx","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"shanghai","targetLabel":"Shanghai","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Shanghai's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 29, 2026 reach at least 27.8°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","targetDate":"2026-10-29","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-03T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":27.8,"rawForecastC":23.1,"adjustedForecastC":23,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-09","baselineEnd":"2026-10-23","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":23.1,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":15,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":27.8,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":23.1,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":15,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":27.8,"publicationLock":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-8yvmpc","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"singapore","targetLabel":"Singapore","region":"Southeast Asia","question":"Will Singapore's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 29, 2026 reach at least 33.3°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","targetDate":"2026-10-29","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-03T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":33.3,"rawForecastC":29.1,"adjustedForecastC":30.3,"learnedBiasC":1.2,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-09","baselineEnd":"2026-10-23","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":29.1,\"learnedBiasC\":1.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":15,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.3,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":29.1,"learnedBiasC":1.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":15,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.3,"publicationLock":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-pdhd6","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sydney","targetLabel":"Sydney","region":"Oceania","question":"Will Sydney's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 29, 2026 reach at least 24.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","targetDate":"2026-10-29","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-03T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":24.6,"rawForecastC":22.2,"adjustedForecastC":22.2,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-09","baselineEnd":"2026-10-23","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":22.2,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":15,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":24.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":22.2,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":15,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":24.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. 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The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":17.3,"learnedBiasC":1.6,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":15,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":25.4,"publicationLock":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-id3vsp","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"cairo","targetLabel":"Cairo","region":"North Africa","question":"Will Cairo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 28, 2026 reach at least 30.8°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","targetDate":"2026-10-28","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-02T12:00:00.000Z","probability":7,"thresholdC":30.8,"rawForecastC":28.5,"adjustedForecastC":28.6,"learnedBiasC":0.1,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-08","baselineEnd":"2026-10-22","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":28.5,\"learnedBiasC\":0.1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":14,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":30.8,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":28.5,"learnedBiasC":0.1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":14,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":30.8,"publicationLock":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-obf5w3","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"delhi","targetLabel":"Delhi","region":"South Asia","question":"Will Delhi's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 28, 2026 reach at least 34.5°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","targetDate":"2026-10-28","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-02T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":34.5,"rawForecastC":28.8,"adjustedForecastC":28.3,"learnedBiasC":-0.5,"uncertaintyC":2.1,"baselineStart":"2026-09-08","baselineEnd":"2026-10-22","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":28.8,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.5,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":14,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.1,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":34.5,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":28.8,"learnedBiasC":-0.5,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":14,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":2.1,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":34.5,"publicationLock":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-9z7b3f","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"houston","targetLabel":"Houston","region":"North America","question":"Will Houston's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 28, 2026 reach at least 31.9°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","targetDate":"2026-10-28","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-02T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":31.9,"rawForecastC":28.9,"adjustedForecastC":28.7,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-08","baselineEnd":"2026-10-22","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":28.9,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":14,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":31.9,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":28.9,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":14,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":31.9,"publicationLock":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-ygp63v","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"lagos","targetLabel":"Lagos","region":"West Africa","question":"Will Lagos's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 28, 2026 reach at least 30.1°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","targetDate":"2026-10-28","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-02T12:00:00.000Z","probability":67,"thresholdC":30.1,"rawForecastC":30,"adjustedForecastC":30.7,"learnedBiasC":0.7,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-08","baselineEnd":"2026-10-22","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":30,\"learnedBiasC\":0.7,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":14,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":30.1,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":30,"learnedBiasC":0.7,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":14,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":30.1,"publicationLock":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-2j75em","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"madrid","targetLabel":"Madrid","region":"Europe","question":"Will Madrid's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 28, 2026 reach at least 26.9°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","targetDate":"2026-10-28","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-02T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":26.9,"rawForecastC":21.3,"adjustedForecastC":21.5,"learnedBiasC":0.2,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-08","baselineEnd":"2026-10-22","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":21.3,\"learnedBiasC\":0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":14,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":26.9,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":21.3,"learnedBiasC":0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":14,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":26.9,"publicationLock":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-31dfce","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"mexico-city","targetLabel":"Mexico City","region":"North America","question":"Will Mexico City's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 28, 2026 reach at least 24.3°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","targetDate":"2026-10-28","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-02T12:00:00.000Z","probability":11,"thresholdC":24.3,"rawForecastC":22.6,"adjustedForecastC":22.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-08","baselineEnd":"2026-10-22","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":22.6,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":14,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":24.3,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":22.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":14,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":24.3,"publicationLock":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-mbu908","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"phoenix","targetLabel":"Phoenix","region":"North America","question":"Will Phoenix's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 28, 2026 reach at least 36.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","targetDate":"2026-10-28","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-02T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":36.7,"rawForecastC":28.6,"adjustedForecastC":28.5,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-08","baselineEnd":"2026-10-22","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":28.6,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":14,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":36.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":28.6,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":14,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":36.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-adcelg","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sao-paulo","targetLabel":"São Paulo","region":"South America","question":"Will São Paulo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 28, 2026 reach at least 28.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","targetDate":"2026-10-28","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-02T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":28.6,"rawForecastC":21.2,"adjustedForecastC":20.9,"learnedBiasC":-0.3,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-08","baselineEnd":"2026-10-22","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":21.2,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.3,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":14,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":28.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":21.2,"learnedBiasC":-0.3,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":14,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":28.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-y9pcwy","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"shanghai","targetLabel":"Shanghai","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Shanghai's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 28, 2026 reach at least 28.0°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","targetDate":"2026-10-28","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-02T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":28,"rawForecastC":19.8,"adjustedForecastC":19.6,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-08","baselineEnd":"2026-10-22","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":19.8,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":14,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":28,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":19.8,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":14,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":28,"publicationLock":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-98v8eb","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"singapore","targetLabel":"Singapore","region":"Southeast Asia","question":"Will Singapore's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 28, 2026 reach at least 33.3°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","targetDate":"2026-10-28","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-02T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":33.3,"rawForecastC":29.7,"adjustedForecastC":30.9,"learnedBiasC":1.2,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-08","baselineEnd":"2026-10-22","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":29.7,\"learnedBiasC\":1.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":14,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.3,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":29.7,"learnedBiasC":1.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":14,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.3,"publicationLock":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-zd325","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sydney","targetLabel":"Sydney","region":"Oceania","question":"Will Sydney's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 28, 2026 reach at least 24.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","targetDate":"2026-10-28","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-02T12:00:00.000Z","probability":10,"thresholdC":24.6,"rawForecastC":22.8,"adjustedForecastC":22.8,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-08","baselineEnd":"2026-10-22","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":22.8,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":14,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":24.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":22.8,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":14,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":24.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-pjyk9j","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"tokyo","targetLabel":"Tokyo","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Tokyo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 28, 2026 reach at least 25.4°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","targetDate":"2026-10-28","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-02T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":25.4,"rawForecastC":17,"adjustedForecastC":18.5,"learnedBiasC":1.5,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-08","baselineEnd":"2026-10-22","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":17,\"learnedBiasC\":1.5,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":14,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":25.4,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":17,"learnedBiasC":1.5,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":14,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":25.4,"publicationLock":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-kv0b1g","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"cairo","targetLabel":"Cairo","region":"North Africa","question":"Will Cairo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 27, 2026 reach at least 30.9°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","targetDate":"2026-10-27","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-01T12:00:00.000Z","probability":7,"thresholdC":30.9,"rawForecastC":28.6,"adjustedForecastC":28.7,"learnedBiasC":0.1,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-07","baselineEnd":"2026-10-21","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":28.6,\"learnedBiasC\":0.1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":13,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":30.9,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":28.6,"learnedBiasC":0.1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":13,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":30.9,"publicationLock":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-rx9zwq","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"delhi","targetLabel":"Delhi","region":"South Asia","question":"Will Delhi's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 27, 2026 reach at least 34.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","targetDate":"2026-10-27","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-01T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":34.6,"rawForecastC":29.5,"adjustedForecastC":29,"learnedBiasC":-0.5,"uncertaintyC":2.2,"baselineStart":"2026-09-07","baselineEnd":"2026-10-21","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":29.5,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.5,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":13,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.2,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":34.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":29.5,"learnedBiasC":-0.5,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":13,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":2.2,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":34.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-958i0i","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"houston","targetLabel":"Houston","region":"North America","question":"Will Houston's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 27, 2026 reach at least 32.0°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","targetDate":"2026-10-27","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-01T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":32,"rawForecastC":27.4,"adjustedForecastC":27.2,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-07","baselineEnd":"2026-10-21","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":27.4,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":13,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":32,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":27.4,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":13,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":32,"publicationLock":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-xmqd0y","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"lagos","targetLabel":"Lagos","region":"West Africa","question":"Will Lagos's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 27, 2026 reach at least 30.1°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","targetDate":"2026-10-27","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-01T12:00:00.000Z","probability":33,"thresholdC":30.1,"rawForecastC":28.9,"adjustedForecastC":29.5,"learnedBiasC":0.6,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-07","baselineEnd":"2026-10-21","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":28.9,\"learnedBiasC\":0.6,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":13,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":30.1,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":28.9,"learnedBiasC":0.6,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":13,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":30.1,"publicationLock":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1594xr","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"madrid","targetLabel":"Madrid","region":"Europe","question":"Will Madrid's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 27, 2026 reach at least 27.4°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","targetDate":"2026-10-27","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-01T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":27.4,"rawForecastC":22,"adjustedForecastC":22.2,"learnedBiasC":0.2,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-07","baselineEnd":"2026-10-21","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":22,\"learnedBiasC\":0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":13,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":27.4,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":22,"learnedBiasC":0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":13,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":27.4,"publicationLock":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1nfevj","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"mexico-city","targetLabel":"Mexico City","region":"North America","question":"Will Mexico City's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 27, 2026 reach at least 24.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","targetDate":"2026-10-27","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-01T12:00:00.000Z","probability":6,"thresholdC":24.6,"rawForecastC":22.4,"adjustedForecastC":22.3,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-07","baselineEnd":"2026-10-21","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":22.4,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":13,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":24.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":22.4,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":13,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":24.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-m1unb9","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"phoenix","targetLabel":"Phoenix","region":"North America","question":"Will Phoenix's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 27, 2026 reach at least 36.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","targetDate":"2026-10-27","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-01T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":36.7,"rawForecastC":28.7,"adjustedForecastC":28.6,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-07","baselineEnd":"2026-10-21","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":28.7,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":13,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":36.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":28.7,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":13,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":36.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-7vfzcp","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sao-paulo","targetLabel":"São Paulo","region":"South America","question":"Will São Paulo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 27, 2026 reach at least 28.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","targetDate":"2026-10-27","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-01T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":28.6,"rawForecastC":21,"adjustedForecastC":20.5,"learnedBiasC":-0.5,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-07","baselineEnd":"2026-10-21","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":21,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.5,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":13,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":28.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":21,"learnedBiasC":-0.5,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":13,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":28.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-z3o5zv","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"shanghai","targetLabel":"Shanghai","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Shanghai's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 27, 2026 reach at least 28.5°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","targetDate":"2026-10-27","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-01T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":28.5,"rawForecastC":20.7,"adjustedForecastC":20.6,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-07","baselineEnd":"2026-10-21","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":20.7,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":13,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":28.5,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":20.7,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":13,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":28.5,"publicationLock":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-cuq2ey","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"singapore","targetLabel":"Singapore","region":"Southeast Asia","question":"Will Singapore's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 27, 2026 reach at least 33.3°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","targetDate":"2026-10-27","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-01T12:00:00.000Z","probability":11,"thresholdC":33.3,"rawForecastC":30.3,"adjustedForecastC":31.6,"learnedBiasC":1.3,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-07","baselineEnd":"2026-10-21","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":30.3,\"learnedBiasC\":1.3,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":13,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.3,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":30.3,"learnedBiasC":1.3,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":13,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.3,"publicationLock":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1vun3mo","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sydney","targetLabel":"Sydney","region":"Oceania","question":"Will Sydney's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 27, 2026 reach at least 24.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","targetDate":"2026-10-27","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-01T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":24.6,"rawForecastC":20.1,"adjustedForecastC":20.2,"learnedBiasC":0.1,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-07","baselineEnd":"2026-10-21","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":20.1,\"learnedBiasC\":0.1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":13,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":24.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":20.1,"learnedBiasC":0.1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":13,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":24.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-mi2xmu","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"tokyo","targetLabel":"Tokyo","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Tokyo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 27, 2026 reach at least 25.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","targetDate":"2026-10-27","resolvesAfter":"2026-11-01T12:00:00.000Z","probability":35,"thresholdC":25.7,"rawForecastC":23.7,"adjustedForecastC":25.2,"learnedBiasC":1.5,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-07","baselineEnd":"2026-10-21","status":"pending","outcome":null,"observedValueC":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":null,"resolutionSourceUrl":null,"resolutionRetrievedAt":null,"inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":23.7,\"learnedBiasC\":1.5,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":13,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":25.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":23.7,"learnedBiasC":1.5,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":13,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":25.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-l4zwqf","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"cairo","targetLabel":"Cairo","region":"North Africa","question":"Will Cairo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 26, 2026 reach at least 31.4°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","targetDate":"2026-10-26","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-31T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":31.4,"rawForecastC":27.2,"adjustedForecastC":27.3,"learnedBiasC":0.1,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-06","baselineEnd":"2026-10-20","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":28,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":27.2,\"learnedBiasC\":0.1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":12,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":31.4,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":27.2,"learnedBiasC":0.1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":12,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":31.4,"publicationLock":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-s79llp","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"delhi","targetLabel":"Delhi","region":"South Asia","question":"Will Delhi's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 26, 2026 reach at least 34.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","targetDate":"2026-10-26","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-31T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":34.6,"rawForecastC":30.3,"adjustedForecastC":29.8,"learnedBiasC":-0.5,"uncertaintyC":2.3,"baselineStart":"2026-09-06","baselineEnd":"2026-10-20","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":29.7,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":30.3,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.5,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":12,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.3,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":34.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":30.3,"learnedBiasC":-0.5,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":12,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":2.3,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":34.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-9f83ph","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"houston","targetLabel":"Houston","region":"North America","question":"Will Houston's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 26, 2026 reach at least 32.2°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","targetDate":"2026-10-26","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-31T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":32.2,"rawForecastC":28.5,"adjustedForecastC":28.3,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-06","baselineEnd":"2026-10-20","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":28.4,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":28.5,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":12,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":32.2,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":28.5,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":12,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":32.2,"publicationLock":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-xwpypx","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"lagos","targetLabel":"Lagos","region":"West Africa","question":"Will Lagos's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 26, 2026 reach at least 29.9°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","targetDate":"2026-10-26","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-31T12:00:00.000Z","probability":50,"thresholdC":29.9,"rawForecastC":29.3,"adjustedForecastC":29.9,"learnedBiasC":0.6,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-06","baselineEnd":"2026-10-20","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":30.4,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","brierScore":0.25,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":29.3,\"learnedBiasC\":0.6,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":12,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":29.9,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":29.3,"learnedBiasC":0.6,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":12,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":29.9,"publicationLock":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-v9j8s","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"madrid","targetLabel":"Madrid","region":"Europe","question":"Will Madrid's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 26, 2026 reach at least 28.1°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","targetDate":"2026-10-26","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-31T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":28.1,"rawForecastC":22.3,"adjustedForecastC":22.5,"learnedBiasC":0.2,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-06","baselineEnd":"2026-10-20","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":23.4,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":22.3,\"learnedBiasC\":0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":12,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":28.1,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":22.3,"learnedBiasC":0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":12,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":28.1,"publicationLock":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1dft6k","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"mexico-city","targetLabel":"Mexico City","region":"North America","question":"Will Mexico City's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 26, 2026 reach at least 24.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","targetDate":"2026-10-26","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-31T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":24.7,"rawForecastC":21.1,"adjustedForecastC":21,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-06","baselineEnd":"2026-10-20","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":22.6,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":21.1,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":12,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":24.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":21.1,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":12,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":24.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-lrv1ma","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"phoenix","targetLabel":"Phoenix","region":"North America","question":"Will Phoenix's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 26, 2026 reach at least 36.9°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","targetDate":"2026-10-26","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-31T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":36.9,"rawForecastC":27.8,"adjustedForecastC":27.6,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-06","baselineEnd":"2026-10-20","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":28.7,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":27.8,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":12,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":36.9,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":27.8,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":12,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":36.9,"publicationLock":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-7lgdnq","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sao-paulo","targetLabel":"São Paulo","region":"South America","question":"Will São Paulo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 26, 2026 reach at least 28.9°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","targetDate":"2026-10-26","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-31T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":28.9,"rawForecastC":19.6,"adjustedForecastC":19.1,"learnedBiasC":-0.5,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-06","baselineEnd":"2026-10-20","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":17.4,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":19.6,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.5,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":12,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":28.9,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":19.6,"learnedBiasC":-0.5,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":12,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":28.9,"publicationLock":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-ytokaw","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"shanghai","targetLabel":"Shanghai","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Shanghai's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 26, 2026 reach at least 29.1°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","targetDate":"2026-10-26","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-31T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":29.1,"rawForecastC":22.6,"adjustedForecastC":22.8,"learnedBiasC":0.2,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-06","baselineEnd":"2026-10-20","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":22.8,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":22.6,\"learnedBiasC\":0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":12,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":29.1,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":22.6,"learnedBiasC":0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":12,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":29.1,"publicationLock":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-d4po3x","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"singapore","targetLabel":"Singapore","region":"Southeast Asia","question":"Will Singapore's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 26, 2026 reach at least 33.3°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","targetDate":"2026-10-26","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-31T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":33.3,"rawForecastC":28.7,"adjustedForecastC":30,"learnedBiasC":1.3,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-06","baselineEnd":"2026-10-20","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":29.8,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":28.7,\"learnedBiasC\":1.3,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":12,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.3,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":28.7,"learnedBiasC":1.3,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":12,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.3,"publicationLock":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1w4mpbn","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sydney","targetLabel":"Sydney","region":"Oceania","question":"Will Sydney's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 26, 2026 reach at least 25.2°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","targetDate":"2026-10-26","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-31T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":25.2,"rawForecastC":19.3,"adjustedForecastC":19.4,"learnedBiasC":0.1,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-06","baselineEnd":"2026-10-20","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":20.6,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":19.3,\"learnedBiasC\":0.1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":12,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":25.2,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":19.3,"learnedBiasC":0.1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":12,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":25.2,"publicationLock":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-ms2jbt","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"tokyo","targetLabel":"Tokyo","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Tokyo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 26, 2026 reach at least 25.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","targetDate":"2026-10-26","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-31T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":25.7,"rawForecastC":18.5,"adjustedForecastC":20,"learnedBiasC":1.5,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-06","baselineEnd":"2026-10-20","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":18.6,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-31T00:00:19.797Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":18.5,\"learnedBiasC\":1.5,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":12,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":25.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":18.5,"learnedBiasC":1.5,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":12,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":25.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-lezife","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"cairo","targetLabel":"Cairo","region":"North Africa","question":"Will Cairo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 25, 2026 reach at least 31.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","targetDate":"2026-10-25","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-30T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":31.7,"rawForecastC":28.4,"adjustedForecastC":28.5,"learnedBiasC":0.1,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-05","baselineEnd":"2026-10-19","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":29.9,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":28.4,\"learnedBiasC\":0.1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":11,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":31.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":28.4,"learnedBiasC":0.1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":11,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":31.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-rdasis","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"delhi","targetLabel":"Delhi","region":"South Asia","question":"Will Delhi's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 25, 2026 reach at least 34.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","targetDate":"2026-10-25","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-30T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":34.6,"rawForecastC":31.4,"adjustedForecastC":30.8,"learnedBiasC":-0.6,"uncertaintyC":2.4,"baselineStart":"2026-09-05","baselineEnd":"2026-10-19","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":29.1,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":31.4,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.6,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":11,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.4,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":34.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":31.4,"learnedBiasC":-0.6,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":11,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":2.4,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":34.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-8l9amk","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"houston","targetLabel":"Houston","region":"North America","question":"Will Houston's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 25, 2026 reach at least 32.4°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","targetDate":"2026-10-25","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-30T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":32.4,"rawForecastC":27.3,"adjustedForecastC":27.1,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-05","baselineEnd":"2026-10-19","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":27.8,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":27.3,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":11,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":32.4,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":27.3,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":11,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":32.4,"publicationLock":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-x2r5n0","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"lagos","targetLabel":"Lagos","region":"West Africa","question":"Will Lagos's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 25, 2026 reach at least 29.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","targetDate":"2026-10-25","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-30T12:00:00.000Z","probability":72,"thresholdC":29.7,"rawForecastC":29.9,"adjustedForecastC":30.5,"learnedBiasC":0.6,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-05","baselineEnd":"2026-10-19","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":31.5,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","brierScore":0.0784,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":29.9,\"learnedBiasC\":0.6,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":11,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":29.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":29.9,"learnedBiasC":0.6,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":11,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":29.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1p8cbp","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"madrid","targetLabel":"Madrid","region":"Europe","question":"Will Madrid's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 25, 2026 reach at least 29.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","targetDate":"2026-10-25","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-30T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":29.6,"rawForecastC":21,"adjustedForecastC":21.1,"learnedBiasC":0.1,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-05","baselineEnd":"2026-10-19","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":22.7,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":21,\"learnedBiasC\":0.1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":11,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":29.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":21,"learnedBiasC":0.1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":11,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":29.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-27em9h","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"mexico-city","targetLabel":"Mexico City","region":"North America","question":"Will Mexico City's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 25, 2026 reach at least 24.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","targetDate":"2026-10-25","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-30T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":24.7,"rawForecastC":19.7,"adjustedForecastC":19.7,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-05","baselineEnd":"2026-10-19","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":20.7,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":19.7,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":11,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":24.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":19.7,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":11,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":24.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-lhvfxb","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"phoenix","targetLabel":"Phoenix","region":"North America","question":"Will Phoenix's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 25, 2026 reach at least 37.2°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","targetDate":"2026-10-25","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-30T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":37.2,"rawForecastC":26.5,"adjustedForecastC":26.2,"learnedBiasC":-0.3,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-05","baselineEnd":"2026-10-19","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":26.5,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":26.5,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.3,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":11,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":37.2,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":26.5,"learnedBiasC":-0.3,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":11,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":37.2,"publicationLock":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-7bgryr","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sao-paulo","targetLabel":"São Paulo","region":"South America","question":"Will São Paulo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 25, 2026 reach at least 28.9°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","targetDate":"2026-10-25","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-30T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":28.9,"rawForecastC":21.7,"adjustedForecastC":21.1,"learnedBiasC":-0.6,"uncertaintyC":1.6,"baselineStart":"2026-09-05","baselineEnd":"2026-10-19","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":22.1,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":21.7,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.6,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":11,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.6,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":28.9,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":21.7,"learnedBiasC":-0.6,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":11,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.6,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":28.9,"publicationLock":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-znnddt","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"shanghai","targetLabel":"Shanghai","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Shanghai's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 25, 2026 reach at least 29.2°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","targetDate":"2026-10-25","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-30T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":29.2,"rawForecastC":21.9,"adjustedForecastC":22.1,"learnedBiasC":0.2,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-05","baselineEnd":"2026-10-19","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":23.2,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":21.9,\"learnedBiasC\":0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":11,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":29.2,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":21.9,"learnedBiasC":0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":11,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":29.2,"publicationLock":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-caqv10","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"singapore","targetLabel":"Singapore","region":"Southeast Asia","question":"Will Singapore's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 25, 2026 reach at least 33.3°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","targetDate":"2026-10-25","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-30T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":33.3,"rawForecastC":29.1,"adjustedForecastC":30.4,"learnedBiasC":1.3,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-05","baselineEnd":"2026-10-19","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":30,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":29.1,\"learnedBiasC\":1.3,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":11,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.3,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":29.1,"learnedBiasC":1.3,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":11,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.3,"publicationLock":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1wemb0m","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sydney","targetLabel":"Sydney","region":"Oceania","question":"Will Sydney's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 25, 2026 reach at least 25.4°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","targetDate":"2026-10-25","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-30T12:00:00.000Z","probability":95,"thresholdC":25.4,"rawForecastC":29.6,"adjustedForecastC":29.7,"learnedBiasC":0.1,"uncertaintyC":1.6,"baselineStart":"2026-09-05","baselineEnd":"2026-10-19","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":31.2,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":29.6,\"learnedBiasC\":0.1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":11,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.6,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":25.4,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":29.6,"learnedBiasC":0.1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":11,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.6,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":25.4,"publicationLock":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-ly3q8w","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"tokyo","targetLabel":"Tokyo","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Tokyo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 25, 2026 reach at least 25.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","targetDate":"2026-10-25","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-30T12:00:00.000Z","probability":95,"thresholdC":25.7,"rawForecastC":26.6,"adjustedForecastC":28.1,"learnedBiasC":1.5,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-05","baselineEnd":"2026-10-19","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":26.5,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-30T00:19:39.158Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":26.6,\"learnedBiasC\":1.5,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":11,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":25.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":26.6,"learnedBiasC":1.5,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":11,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":25.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-loz44d","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"cairo","targetLabel":"Cairo","region":"North Africa","question":"Will Cairo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 24, 2026 reach at least 31.9°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","targetDate":"2026-10-24","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-29T12:00:00.000Z","probability":13,"thresholdC":31.9,"rawForecastC":30.3,"adjustedForecastC":30.3,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-04","baselineEnd":"2026-10-18","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":31.7,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","brierScore":0.0169,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":30.3,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":10,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":31.9,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":30.3,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":10,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":31.9,"publicationLock":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-rnae7r","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"delhi","targetLabel":"Delhi","region":"South Asia","question":"Will Delhi's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 24, 2026 reach at least 34.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","targetDate":"2026-10-24","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-29T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":34.6,"rawForecastC":31.3,"adjustedForecastC":30.6,"learnedBiasC":-0.7,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-04","baselineEnd":"2026-10-18","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":30.9,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":31.3,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.7,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":10,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":34.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":31.3,"learnedBiasC":-0.7,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":10,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":34.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-8v8wbj","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"houston","targetLabel":"Houston","region":"North America","question":"Will Houston's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 24, 2026 reach at least 32.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","targetDate":"2026-10-24","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-29T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":32.6,"rawForecastC":29,"adjustedForecastC":28.8,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-04","baselineEnd":"2026-10-18","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":29.2,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":29,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":10,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":32.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":29,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":10,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":32.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-xcqrbz","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"lagos","targetLabel":"Lagos","region":"West Africa","question":"Will Lagos's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 24, 2026 reach at least 29.5°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","targetDate":"2026-10-24","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-29T12:00:00.000Z","probability":72,"thresholdC":29.5,"rawForecastC":29.7,"adjustedForecastC":30.3,"learnedBiasC":0.6,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-04","baselineEnd":"2026-10-18","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":31.8,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","brierScore":0.0784,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":29.7,\"learnedBiasC\":0.6,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":10,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":29.5,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":29.7,"learnedBiasC":0.6,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":10,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":29.5,"publicationLock":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1f8qmq","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"madrid","targetLabel":"Madrid","region":"Europe","question":"Will Madrid's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 24, 2026 reach at least 29.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","targetDate":"2026-10-24","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-29T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":29.6,"rawForecastC":18.9,"adjustedForecastC":19.1,"learnedBiasC":0.2,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-04","baselineEnd":"2026-10-18","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":18.5,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":18.9,\"learnedBiasC\":0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":10,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":29.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":18.9,"learnedBiasC":0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":10,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":29.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1xf0ki","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"mexico-city","targetLabel":"Mexico City","region":"North America","question":"Will Mexico City's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 24, 2026 reach at least 24.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","targetDate":"2026-10-24","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-29T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":24.7,"rawForecastC":21.7,"adjustedForecastC":21.6,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-04","baselineEnd":"2026-10-18","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":21.4,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":21.7,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":10,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":24.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":21.7,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":10,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":24.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-l7vu8c","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"phoenix","targetLabel":"Phoenix","region":"North America","question":"Will Phoenix's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 24, 2026 reach at least 37.8°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","targetDate":"2026-10-24","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-29T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":37.8,"rawForecastC":26,"adjustedForecastC":25.7,"learnedBiasC":-0.3,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-04","baselineEnd":"2026-10-18","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":25,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":26,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.3,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":10,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":37.8,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":26,"learnedBiasC":-0.3,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":10,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":37.8,"publicationLock":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-71h69s","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sao-paulo","targetLabel":"São Paulo","region":"South America","question":"Will São Paulo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 24, 2026 reach at least 28.9°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","targetDate":"2026-10-24","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-29T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":28.9,"rawForecastC":24.6,"adjustedForecastC":24,"learnedBiasC":-0.6,"uncertaintyC":1.7,"baselineStart":"2026-09-04","baselineEnd":"2026-10-18","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":25.7,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":24.6,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.6,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":10,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.7,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":28.9,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":24.6,"learnedBiasC":-0.6,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":10,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.7,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":28.9,"publicationLock":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-zdnrou","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"shanghai","targetLabel":"Shanghai","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Shanghai's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 24, 2026 reach at least 29.4°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","targetDate":"2026-10-24","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-29T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":29.4,"rawForecastC":22.4,"adjustedForecastC":22.6,"learnedBiasC":0.2,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-04","baselineEnd":"2026-10-18","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":21.2,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":22.4,\"learnedBiasC\":0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":10,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":29.4,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":22.4,"learnedBiasC":0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":10,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":29.4,"publicationLock":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-ckqgpz","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"singapore","targetLabel":"Singapore","region":"Southeast Asia","question":"Will Singapore's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 24, 2026 reach at least 33.3°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","targetDate":"2026-10-24","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-29T12:00:00.000Z","probability":47,"thresholdC":33.3,"rawForecastC":32.1,"adjustedForecastC":33.2,"learnedBiasC":1.1,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-04","baselineEnd":"2026-10-18","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":31.1,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","brierScore":0.2209,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":32.1,\"learnedBiasC\":1.1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":10,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.3,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":32.1,"learnedBiasC":1.1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":10,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.3,"publicationLock":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1wolwpl","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sydney","targetLabel":"Sydney","region":"Oceania","question":"Will Sydney's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 24, 2026 reach at least 26.4°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","targetDate":"2026-10-24","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-29T12:00:00.000Z","probability":64,"thresholdC":26.4,"rawForecastC":27,"adjustedForecastC":26.9,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"uncertaintyC":1.6,"baselineStart":"2026-09-04","baselineEnd":"2026-10-18","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":28.2,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","brierScore":0.1296,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":27,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":10,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.6,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":26.4,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":27,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":10,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.6,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":26.4,"publicationLock":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-m83bxv","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"tokyo","targetLabel":"Tokyo","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Tokyo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 24, 2026 reach at least 25.2°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","targetDate":"2026-10-24","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-29T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":25.2,"rawForecastC":16.2,"adjustedForecastC":17.6,"learnedBiasC":1.4,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-04","baselineEnd":"2026-10-18","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":22.1,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-29T00:02:20.582Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":16.2,\"learnedBiasC\":1.4,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":10,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":25.2,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":16.2,"learnedBiasC":1.4,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":10,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":25.2,"publicationLock":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-jr1w9k","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"cairo","targetLabel":"Cairo","region":"North Africa","question":"Will Cairo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 23, 2026 reach at least 32.1°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-22T00:15:19.792Z","targetDate":"2026-10-23","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-28T12:00:00.000Z","probability":17,"thresholdC":32.1,"rawForecastC":30.8,"adjustedForecastC":30.8,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-03","baselineEnd":"2026-10-17","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":32.1,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","brierScore":0.6889,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":30.8,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":10,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":32.1,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-22T00:15:19.792Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":30.8,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":10,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":32.1,"publicationLock":"2026-10-22T00:15:19.792Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-qtbl4u","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"delhi","targetLabel":"Delhi","region":"South Asia","question":"Will Delhi's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 23, 2026 reach at least 34.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-22T00:15:19.792Z","targetDate":"2026-10-23","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-28T12:00:00.000Z","probability":6,"thresholdC":34.6,"rawForecastC":31.4,"adjustedForecastC":30.7,"learnedBiasC":-0.7,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-03","baselineEnd":"2026-10-17","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":30.4,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","brierScore":0.0036,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":31.4,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.7,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":10,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":34.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-22T00:15:19.792Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":31.4,"learnedBiasC":-0.7,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":10,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":34.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-22T00:15:19.792Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-81a38m","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"houston","targetLabel":"Houston","region":"North America","question":"Will Houston's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 23, 2026 reach at least 32.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-22T00:15:19.792Z","targetDate":"2026-10-23","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-28T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":32.6,"rawForecastC":30.3,"adjustedForecastC":30.1,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-03","baselineEnd":"2026-10-17","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":30.5,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":30.3,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":10,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":32.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-22T00:15:19.792Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":30.3,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":10,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":32.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-22T00:15:19.792Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-wiry92","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"lagos","targetLabel":"Lagos","region":"West Africa","question":"Will Lagos's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 23, 2026 reach at least 29.3°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-22T00:15:19.792Z","targetDate":"2026-10-23","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-28T12:00:00.000Z","probability":79,"thresholdC":29.3,"rawForecastC":29.8,"adjustedForecastC":30.4,"learnedBiasC":0.6,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-03","baselineEnd":"2026-10-17","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":30.9,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","brierScore":0.0441,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":29.8,\"learnedBiasC\":0.6,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":10,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":29.3,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-22T00:15:19.792Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":29.8,"learnedBiasC":0.6,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":10,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":29.3,"publicationLock":"2026-10-22T00:15:19.792Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1aq5v","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"madrid","targetLabel":"Madrid","region":"Europe","question":"Will Madrid's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 23, 2026 reach at least 29.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-22T00:15:19.792Z","targetDate":"2026-10-23","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-28T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":29.6,"rawForecastC":18.9,"adjustedForecastC":19.1,"learnedBiasC":0.2,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-03","baselineEnd":"2026-10-17","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":20.3,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":18.9,\"learnedBiasC\":0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":10,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":29.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-22T00:15:19.792Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":18.9,"learnedBiasC":0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":10,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":29.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-22T00:15:19.792Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-jh03n","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"mexico-city","targetLabel":"Mexico City","region":"North America","question":"Will Mexico City's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 23, 2026 reach at least 24.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-22T00:15:19.792Z","targetDate":"2026-10-23","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-28T12:00:00.000Z","probability":9,"thresholdC":24.7,"rawForecastC":22.9,"adjustedForecastC":22.8,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-03","baselineEnd":"2026-10-17","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":22.2,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","brierScore":0.0081,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":22.9,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":10,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":24.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-22T00:15:19.792Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":22.9,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":10,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":24.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-22T00:15:19.792Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-kxw8jd","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"phoenix","targetLabel":"Phoenix","region":"North America","question":"Will Phoenix's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 23, 2026 reach at least 38.0°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-22T00:15:19.792Z","targetDate":"2026-10-23","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-28T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":38,"rawForecastC":26,"adjustedForecastC":25.7,"learnedBiasC":-0.3,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-03","baselineEnd":"2026-10-17","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":26.5,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":26,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.3,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":10,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":38,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-22T00:15:19.792Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":26,"learnedBiasC":-0.3,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":10,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":38,"publicationLock":"2026-10-22T00:15:19.792Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-8zee4l","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sao-paulo","targetLabel":"São Paulo","region":"South America","question":"Will São Paulo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 23, 2026 reach at least 28.9°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-22T00:15:19.792Z","targetDate":"2026-10-23","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-28T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":28.9,"rawForecastC":24.7,"adjustedForecastC":24.1,"learnedBiasC":-0.6,"uncertaintyC":1.7,"baselineStart":"2026-09-03","baselineEnd":"2026-10-17","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":22.5,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":24.7,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.6,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":10,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.7,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":28.9,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-22T00:15:19.792Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":24.7,"learnedBiasC":-0.6,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":10,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.7,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":28.9,"publicationLock":"2026-10-22T00:15:19.792Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-107mkrr","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"shanghai","targetLabel":"Shanghai","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Shanghai's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 23, 2026 reach at least 29.4°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-22T00:15:19.792Z","targetDate":"2026-10-23","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-28T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":29.4,"rawForecastC":22.3,"adjustedForecastC":22.5,"learnedBiasC":0.2,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-03","baselineEnd":"2026-10-17","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":22.8,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":22.3,\"learnedBiasC\":0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":10,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":29.4,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-22T00:15:19.792Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":22.3,"learnedBiasC":0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":10,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":29.4,"publicationLock":"2026-10-22T00:15:19.792Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-bqrnn2","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"singapore","targetLabel":"Singapore","region":"Southeast Asia","question":"Will Singapore's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 23, 2026 reach at least 33.3°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-22T00:15:19.792Z","targetDate":"2026-10-23","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-28T12:00:00.000Z","probability":47,"thresholdC":33.3,"rawForecastC":32.1,"adjustedForecastC":33.2,"learnedBiasC":1.1,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-03","baselineEnd":"2026-10-17","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":32.5,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","brierScore":0.2209,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":32.1,\"learnedBiasC\":1.1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":10,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.3,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-22T00:15:19.792Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":32.1,"learnedBiasC":1.1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":10,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.3,"publicationLock":"2026-10-22T00:15:19.792Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1wyliek","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sydney","targetLabel":"Sydney","region":"Oceania","question":"Will Sydney's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 23, 2026 reach at least 26.4°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-22T00:15:19.792Z","targetDate":"2026-10-23","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-28T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":26.4,"rawForecastC":23.3,"adjustedForecastC":23.2,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"uncertaintyC":1.6,"baselineStart":"2026-09-03","baselineEnd":"2026-10-17","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":23,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":23.3,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":10,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.6,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":26.4,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-22T00:15:19.792Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":23.3,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":10,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.6,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":26.4,"publicationLock":"2026-10-22T00:15:19.792Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-nm1ceq","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"tokyo","targetLabel":"Tokyo","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Tokyo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 23, 2026 reach at least 25.2°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-22T00:15:19.792Z","targetDate":"2026-10-23","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-28T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":25.2,"rawForecastC":19.5,"adjustedForecastC":20.9,"learnedBiasC":1.4,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-03","baselineEnd":"2026-10-17","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":21.9,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-28T00:02:46.983Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":19.5,\"learnedBiasC\":1.4,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":10,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":25.2,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-22T00:15:19.792Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":19.5,"learnedBiasC":1.4,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":10,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":25.2,"publicationLock":"2026-10-22T00:15:19.792Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-k11hyj","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"cairo","targetLabel":"Cairo","region":"North Africa","question":"Will Cairo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 22, 2026 reach at least 32.3°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","targetDate":"2026-10-22","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-27T12:00:00.000Z","probability":7,"thresholdC":32.3,"rawForecastC":30.1,"adjustedForecastC":30.1,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-02","baselineEnd":"2026-10-16","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":29.4,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","brierScore":0.0049,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":30.1,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":8,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":32.3,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":30.1,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":8,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":32.3,"publicationLock":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-r3b6tt","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"delhi","targetLabel":"Delhi","region":"South Asia","question":"Will Delhi's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 22, 2026 reach at least 34.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","targetDate":"2026-10-22","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-27T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":34.6,"rawForecastC":30.9,"adjustedForecastC":30.2,"learnedBiasC":-0.7,"uncertaintyC":2.7,"baselineStart":"2026-09-02","baselineEnd":"2026-10-16","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":30.3,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":30.9,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.7,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":8,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.7,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":34.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":30.9,"learnedBiasC":-0.7,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":8,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":2.7,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":34.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-8b9oxl","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"houston","targetLabel":"Houston","region":"North America","question":"Will Houston's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 22, 2026 reach at least 32.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","targetDate":"2026-10-22","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-27T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":32.6,"rawForecastC":30.2,"adjustedForecastC":30.1,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-02","baselineEnd":"2026-10-16","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":29.6,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":30.2,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":8,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":32.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":30.2,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":8,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":32.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-wsrjy1","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"lagos","targetLabel":"Lagos","region":"West Africa","question":"Will Lagos's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 22, 2026 reach at least 29.3°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","targetDate":"2026-10-22","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-27T12:00:00.000Z","probability":89,"thresholdC":29.3,"rawForecastC":30.5,"adjustedForecastC":31,"learnedBiasC":0.5,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-02","baselineEnd":"2026-10-16","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":31.1,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","brierScore":0.0121,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":30.5,\"learnedBiasC\":0.5,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":8,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":29.3,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":30.5,"learnedBiasC":0.5,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":8,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":29.3,"publicationLock":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1ysf6g0","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"madrid","targetLabel":"Madrid","region":"Europe","question":"Will Madrid's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 22, 2026 reach at least 29.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","targetDate":"2026-10-22","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-27T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":29.6,"rawForecastC":17.7,"adjustedForecastC":18,"learnedBiasC":0.3,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-02","baselineEnd":"2026-10-16","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":18.5,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":17.7,\"learnedBiasC\":0.3,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":8,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":29.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":17.7,"learnedBiasC":0.3,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":8,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":29.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-9heeo","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"mexico-city","targetLabel":"Mexico City","region":"North America","question":"Will Mexico City's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 22, 2026 reach at least 24.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","targetDate":"2026-10-22","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-27T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":24.7,"rawForecastC":20.8,"adjustedForecastC":20.6,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-02","baselineEnd":"2026-10-16","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":20.3,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":20.8,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":8,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":24.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":20.8,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":8,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":24.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-knwmue","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"phoenix","targetLabel":"Phoenix","region":"North America","question":"Will Phoenix's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 22, 2026 reach at least 38.0°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","targetDate":"2026-10-22","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-27T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":38,"rawForecastC":30.7,"adjustedForecastC":30.4,"learnedBiasC":-0.3,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-02","baselineEnd":"2026-10-16","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":26.6,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":30.7,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.3,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":8,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":38,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":30.7,"learnedBiasC":-0.3,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":8,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":38,"publicationLock":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-8pesfm","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sao-paulo","targetLabel":"São Paulo","region":"South America","question":"Will São Paulo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 22, 2026 reach at least 28.9°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","targetDate":"2026-10-22","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-27T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":28.9,"rawForecastC":23.2,"adjustedForecastC":22.8,"learnedBiasC":-0.4,"uncertaintyC":1.7,"baselineStart":"2026-09-02","baselineEnd":"2026-10-16","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":24.5,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":23.2,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.4,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":8,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.7,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":28.9,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":23.2,"learnedBiasC":-0.4,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":8,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.7,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":28.9,"publicationLock":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-zxmz2s","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"shanghai","targetLabel":"Shanghai","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Shanghai's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 22, 2026 reach at least 29.4°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","targetDate":"2026-10-22","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-27T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":29.4,"rawForecastC":20.5,"adjustedForecastC":20.7,"learnedBiasC":0.2,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-02","baselineEnd":"2026-10-16","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":21,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":20.5,\"learnedBiasC\":0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":8,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":29.4,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":20.5,"learnedBiasC":0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":8,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":29.4,"publicationLock":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-c0r9c1","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"singapore","targetLabel":"Singapore","region":"Southeast Asia","question":"Will Singapore's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 22, 2026 reach at least 33.3°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","targetDate":"2026-10-22","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-27T12:00:00.000Z","probability":41,"thresholdC":33.3,"rawForecastC":32,"adjustedForecastC":33,"learnedBiasC":1,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-02","baselineEnd":"2026-10-16","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":32.9,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","brierScore":0.1681,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":32,\"learnedBiasC\":1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":8,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.3,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":32,"learnedBiasC":1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":8,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.3,"publicationLock":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1x8l43j","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sydney","targetLabel":"Sydney","region":"Oceania","question":"Will Sydney's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 22, 2026 reach at least 26.4°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","targetDate":"2026-10-22","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-27T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":26.4,"rawForecastC":21.9,"adjustedForecastC":21.7,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"uncertaintyC":1.8,"baselineStart":"2026-09-02","baselineEnd":"2026-10-16","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":21.6,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":21.9,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":8,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.8,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":26.4,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":21.9,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":8,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.8,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":26.4,"publicationLock":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-nw0y3p","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"tokyo","targetLabel":"Tokyo","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Tokyo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 22, 2026 reach at least 25.2°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","targetDate":"2026-10-22","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-27T12:00:00.000Z","probability":25,"thresholdC":25.2,"rawForecastC":22.9,"adjustedForecastC":24.3,"learnedBiasC":1.4,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-02","baselineEnd":"2026-10-16","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":24.7,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","brierScore":0.0625,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-27T00:19:20.421Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":22.9,\"learnedBiasC\":1.4,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":8,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":25.2,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":22.9,"learnedBiasC":1.4,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":8,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":25.2,"publicationLock":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-kb13ni","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"cairo","targetLabel":"Cairo","region":"North Africa","question":"Will Cairo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 21, 2026 reach at least 32.5°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","targetDate":"2026-10-21","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-26T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":32.5,"rawForecastC":28.3,"adjustedForecastC":28.3,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-01","baselineEnd":"2026-10-15","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":28.1,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":28.3,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":7,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":32.5,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":28.3,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":7,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":32.5,"publicationLock":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-q9cdqw","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"delhi","targetLabel":"Delhi","region":"South Asia","question":"Will Delhi's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 21, 2026 reach at least 34.9°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","targetDate":"2026-10-21","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-26T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":34.9,"rawForecastC":30.3,"adjustedForecastC":30.2,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"uncertaintyC":2.1,"baselineStart":"2026-09-01","baselineEnd":"2026-10-15","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":30.2,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":30.3,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":7,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.1,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":34.9,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":30.3,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":7,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":2.1,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":34.9,"publicationLock":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-7havuo","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"houston","targetLabel":"Houston","region":"North America","question":"Will Houston's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 21, 2026 reach at least 33.0°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","targetDate":"2026-10-21","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-26T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":33,"rawForecastC":30.2,"adjustedForecastC":29.8,"learnedBiasC":-0.4,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-01","baselineEnd":"2026-10-15","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":29,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":30.2,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.4,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":7,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":30.2,"learnedBiasC":-0.4,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":7,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33,"publicationLock":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-vysqv4","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"lagos","targetLabel":"Lagos","region":"West Africa","question":"Will Lagos's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 21, 2026 reach at least 29.3°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","targetDate":"2026-10-21","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-26T12:00:00.000Z","probability":65,"thresholdC":29.3,"rawForecastC":29.2,"adjustedForecastC":29.8,"learnedBiasC":0.6,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-01","baselineEnd":"2026-10-15","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":30.3,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","brierScore":0.1225,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":29.2,\"learnedBiasC\":0.6,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":7,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":29.3,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":29.2,"learnedBiasC":0.6,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":7,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":29.3,"publicationLock":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-l9xjt","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"madrid","targetLabel":"Madrid","region":"Europe","question":"Will Madrid's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 21, 2026 reach at least 29.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","targetDate":"2026-10-21","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-26T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":29.6,"rawForecastC":17.2,"adjustedForecastC":17.7,"learnedBiasC":0.5,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-01","baselineEnd":"2026-10-15","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":17.9,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":17.2,\"learnedBiasC\":0.5,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":7,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":29.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":17.2,"learnedBiasC":0.5,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":7,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":29.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-13g7hl","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"mexico-city","targetLabel":"Mexico City","region":"North America","question":"Will Mexico City's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 21, 2026 reach at least 24.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","targetDate":"2026-10-21","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-26T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":24.7,"rawForecastC":21.1,"adjustedForecastC":20.8,"learnedBiasC":-0.3,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-01","baselineEnd":"2026-10-15","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":22.1,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":21.1,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.3,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":7,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":24.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":21.1,"learnedBiasC":-0.3,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":7,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":24.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-kdx15f","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"phoenix","targetLabel":"Phoenix","region":"North America","question":"Will Phoenix's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 21, 2026 reach at least 38.0°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","targetDate":"2026-10-21","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-26T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":38,"rawForecastC":32.5,"adjustedForecastC":32.1,"learnedBiasC":-0.4,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-01","baselineEnd":"2026-10-15","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":32.2,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":32.5,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.4,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":7,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":38,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":32.5,"learnedBiasC":-0.4,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":7,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":38,"publicationLock":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-8ff6qn","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sao-paulo","targetLabel":"São Paulo","region":"South America","question":"Will São Paulo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 21, 2026 reach at least 28.9°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","targetDate":"2026-10-21","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-26T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":28.9,"rawForecastC":23.6,"adjustedForecastC":23,"learnedBiasC":-0.6,"uncertaintyC":1.8,"baselineStart":"2026-09-01","baselineEnd":"2026-10-15","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":25,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":23.6,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.6,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":7,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.8,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":28.9,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":23.6,"learnedBiasC":-0.6,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":7,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.8,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":28.9,"publicationLock":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-10rls5p","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"shanghai","targetLabel":"Shanghai","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Shanghai's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 21, 2026 reach at least 29.8°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","targetDate":"2026-10-21","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-26T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":29.8,"rawForecastC":22.5,"adjustedForecastC":22.7,"learnedBiasC":0.2,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-01","baselineEnd":"2026-10-15","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":20.9,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":22.5,\"learnedBiasC\":0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":7,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":29.8,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":22.5,"learnedBiasC":0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":7,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":29.8,"publicationLock":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-b6sg94","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"singapore","targetLabel":"Singapore","region":"Southeast Asia","question":"Will Singapore's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 21, 2026 reach at least 33.3°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","targetDate":"2026-10-21","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-26T12:00:00.000Z","probability":44,"thresholdC":33.3,"rawForecastC":31.7,"adjustedForecastC":33.1,"learnedBiasC":1.4,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-01","baselineEnd":"2026-10-15","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":32.3,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","brierScore":0.1936,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":31.7,\"learnedBiasC\":1.4,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":7,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.3,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":31.7,"learnedBiasC":1.4,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":7,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.3,"publicationLock":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1xikpsi","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sydney","targetLabel":"Sydney","region":"Oceania","question":"Will Sydney's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 21, 2026 reach at least 26.4°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","targetDate":"2026-10-21","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-26T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":26.4,"rawForecastC":21.6,"adjustedForecastC":21.3,"learnedBiasC":-0.3,"uncertaintyC":1.9,"baselineStart":"2026-09-01","baselineEnd":"2026-10-15","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":21.4,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":21.6,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.3,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":7,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.9,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":26.4,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":21.6,"learnedBiasC":-0.3,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":7,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.9,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":26.4,"publicationLock":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-n2250s","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"tokyo","targetLabel":"Tokyo","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Tokyo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 21, 2026 reach at least 25.0°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","targetDate":"2026-10-21","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-26T12:00:00.000Z","probability":95,"thresholdC":25,"rawForecastC":27.7,"adjustedForecastC":29.2,"learnedBiasC":1.5,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-09-01","baselineEnd":"2026-10-15","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":29.3,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-26T00:00:09.801Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":27.7,\"learnedBiasC\":1.5,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":7,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":25,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":27.7,"learnedBiasC":1.5,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":7,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":25,"publicationLock":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-kl0pch","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"cairo","targetLabel":"Cairo","region":"North Africa","question":"Will Cairo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 20, 2026 reach at least 32.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","targetDate":"2026-10-20","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":32.6,"rawForecastC":27.5,"adjustedForecastC":27.3,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-31","baselineEnd":"2026-10-14","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":27.4,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":27.5,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":6,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":32.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":27.5,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":6,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":32.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-qjbzfv","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"delhi","targetLabel":"Delhi","region":"South Asia","question":"Will Delhi's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 20, 2026 reach at least 34.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","targetDate":"2026-10-20","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":34.7,"rawForecastC":29.5,"adjustedForecastC":29.4,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"uncertaintyC":2.3,"baselineStart":"2026-08-31","baselineEnd":"2026-10-14","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":29.7,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":29.5,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":6,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.3,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":34.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":29.5,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":6,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":2.3,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":34.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-7rahjn","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"houston","targetLabel":"Houston","region":"North America","question":"Will Houston's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 20, 2026 reach at least 33.2°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","targetDate":"2026-10-20","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":33.2,"rawForecastC":27.9,"adjustedForecastC":27.6,"learnedBiasC":-0.3,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-31","baselineEnd":"2026-10-14","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":27.7,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":27.9,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.3,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":6,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.2,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":27.9,"learnedBiasC":-0.3,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":6,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.2,"publicationLock":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-w8sck3","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"lagos","targetLabel":"Lagos","region":"West Africa","question":"Will Lagos's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 20, 2026 reach at least 29.0°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","targetDate":"2026-10-20","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z","probability":89,"thresholdC":29,"rawForecastC":30,"adjustedForecastC":30.7,"learnedBiasC":0.7,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-31","baselineEnd":"2026-10-14","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":30.5,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","brierScore":0.0121,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":30,\"learnedBiasC\":0.7,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":6,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":29,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":30,"learnedBiasC":0.7,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":6,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":29,"publicationLock":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-babuu","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"madrid","targetLabel":"Madrid","region":"Europe","question":"Will Madrid's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 20, 2026 reach at least 30.0°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","targetDate":"2026-10-20","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":30,"rawForecastC":17.2,"adjustedForecastC":17.6,"learnedBiasC":0.4,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-31","baselineEnd":"2026-10-14","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":17.3,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":17.2,\"learnedBiasC\":0.4,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":6,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":30,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":17.2,"learnedBiasC":0.4,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":6,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":30,"publicationLock":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-tglsm","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"mexico-city","targetLabel":"Mexico City","region":"North America","question":"Will Mexico City's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 20, 2026 reach at least 24.5°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","targetDate":"2026-10-20","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z","probability":6,"thresholdC":24.5,"rawForecastC":22.6,"adjustedForecastC":22.2,"learnedBiasC":-0.4,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-31","baselineEnd":"2026-10-14","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":22.4,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","brierScore":0.0036,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":22.6,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.4,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":6,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":24.5,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":22.6,"learnedBiasC":-0.4,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":6,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":24.5,"publicationLock":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-k3xfgg","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"phoenix","targetLabel":"Phoenix","region":"North America","question":"Will Phoenix's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 20, 2026 reach at least 38.0°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","targetDate":"2026-10-20","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":38,"rawForecastC":31.7,"adjustedForecastC":31.5,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-31","baselineEnd":"2026-10-14","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":32.7,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":31.7,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":6,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":38,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":31.7,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":6,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":38,"publicationLock":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-85fl1o","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sao-paulo","targetLabel":"São Paulo","region":"South America","question":"Will São Paulo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 20, 2026 reach at least 28.9°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","targetDate":"2026-10-20","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":28.9,"rawForecastC":23,"adjustedForecastC":22.3,"learnedBiasC":-0.7,"uncertaintyC":1.9,"baselineStart":"2026-08-31","baselineEnd":"2026-10-14","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":23.4,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":23,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.7,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":6,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.9,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":28.9,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":23,"learnedBiasC":-0.7,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":6,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.9,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":28.9,"publicationLock":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-10hm6gq","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"shanghai","targetLabel":"Shanghai","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Shanghai's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 20, 2026 reach at least 29.8°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","targetDate":"2026-10-20","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z","probability":81,"thresholdC":29.8,"rawForecastC":30.7,"adjustedForecastC":31,"learnedBiasC":0.3,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-31","baselineEnd":"2026-10-14","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":27.8,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","brierScore":0.6561,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":30.7,\"learnedBiasC\":0.3,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":6,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":29.8,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":30.7,"learnedBiasC":0.3,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":6,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":29.8,"publicationLock":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-bgs1y3","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"singapore","targetLabel":"Singapore","region":"Southeast Asia","question":"Will Singapore's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 20, 2026 reach at least 33.2°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","targetDate":"2026-10-20","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z","probability":17,"thresholdC":33.2,"rawForecastC":30.4,"adjustedForecastC":31.9,"learnedBiasC":1.5,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-31","baselineEnd":"2026-10-14","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":31.4,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","brierScore":0.0289,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":30.4,\"learnedBiasC\":1.5,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":6,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.2,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":30.4,"learnedBiasC":1.5,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":6,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.2,"publicationLock":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1xskbhh","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sydney","targetLabel":"Sydney","region":"Oceania","question":"Will Sydney's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 20, 2026 reach at least 25.8°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","targetDate":"2026-10-20","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":25.8,"rawForecastC":21.4,"adjustedForecastC":21.2,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"uncertaintyC":2,"baselineStart":"2026-08-31","baselineEnd":"2026-10-14","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":21.5,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":21.4,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":6,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":2,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":25.8,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":21.4,"learnedBiasC":-0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":6,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":2,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":25.8,"publicationLock":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-nc1qpr","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"tokyo","targetLabel":"Tokyo","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Tokyo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 20, 2026 reach at least 25.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","targetDate":"2026-10-20","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z","probability":65,"thresholdC":25.6,"rawForecastC":25,"adjustedForecastC":26.1,"learnedBiasC":1.1,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-31","baselineEnd":"2026-10-14","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":26.4,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","brierScore":0.1225,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-25T00:04:28.945Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":25,\"learnedBiasC\":1.1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":6,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":25.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":25,"learnedBiasC":1.1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":6,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":25.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1jtpdxx","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"cairo","targetLabel":"Cairo","region":"North Africa","question":"Will Cairo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 19, 2026 reach at least 32.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","targetDate":"2026-10-19","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":32.6,"rawForecastC":27.3,"adjustedForecastC":27.2,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-30","baselineEnd":"2026-10-13","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":27,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":27.3,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":5,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":32.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":27.3,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":5,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":32.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-o163p7","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"delhi","targetLabel":"Delhi","region":"South Asia","question":"Will Delhi's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 19, 2026 reach at least 34.9°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","targetDate":"2026-10-19","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":34.9,"rawForecastC":29.7,"adjustedForecastC":29.9,"learnedBiasC":0.2,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-30","baselineEnd":"2026-10-13","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":29.8,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":29.7,\"learnedBiasC\":0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":5,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":34.9,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":29.7,"learnedBiasC":0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":5,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":34.9,"publicationLock":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-197h637","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"houston","targetLabel":"Houston","region":"North America","question":"Will Houston's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 19, 2026 reach at least 33.5°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","targetDate":"2026-10-19","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":33.5,"rawForecastC":26.5,"adjustedForecastC":26.2,"learnedBiasC":-0.3,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-30","baselineEnd":"2026-10-13","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":26.6,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":26.5,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.3,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":5,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.5,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":26.5,"learnedBiasC":-0.3,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":5,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.5,"publicationLock":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1xoz13n","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"lagos","targetLabel":"Lagos","region":"West Africa","question":"Will Lagos's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 19, 2026 reach at least 29.2°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","targetDate":"2026-10-19","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z","probability":79,"thresholdC":29.2,"rawForecastC":29.7,"adjustedForecastC":30.3,"learnedBiasC":0.6,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-30","baselineEnd":"2026-10-13","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":30.8,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","brierScore":0.0441,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":29.7,\"learnedBiasC\":0.6,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":5,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":29.2,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":29.7,"learnedBiasC":0.6,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":5,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":29.2,"publicationLock":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-14jjcc2","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"madrid","targetLabel":"Madrid","region":"Europe","question":"Will Madrid's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 19, 2026 reach at least 31.5°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","targetDate":"2026-10-19","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":31.5,"rawForecastC":12.6,"adjustedForecastC":13,"learnedBiasC":0.4,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-30","baselineEnd":"2026-10-13","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":14.3,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":12.6,\"learnedBiasC\":0.4,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":5,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":31.5,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":12.6,"learnedBiasC":0.4,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":5,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":31.5,"publicationLock":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-5j6p36","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"mexico-city","targetLabel":"Mexico City","region":"North America","question":"Will Mexico City's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 19, 2026 reach at least 24.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","targetDate":"2026-10-19","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":24.7,"rawForecastC":22.6,"adjustedForecastC":22,"learnedBiasC":-0.6,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-30","baselineEnd":"2026-10-13","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":21.4,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":22.6,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.6,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":5,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":24.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":22.6,"learnedBiasC":-0.6,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":5,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":24.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1m4ofzk","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"phoenix","targetLabel":"Phoenix","region":"North America","question":"Will Phoenix's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 19, 2026 reach at least 38.1°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","targetDate":"2026-10-19","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":38.1,"rawForecastC":29,"adjustedForecastC":29,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-30","baselineEnd":"2026-10-13","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":30.1,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":29,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":5,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":38.1,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":29,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":5,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":38.1,"publicationLock":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1a66lks","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sao-paulo","targetLabel":"São Paulo","region":"South America","question":"Will São Paulo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 19, 2026 reach at least 28.9°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","targetDate":"2026-10-19","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":28.9,"rawForecastC":22.6,"adjustedForecastC":22.5,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-30","baselineEnd":"2026-10-13","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":22.3,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":22.6,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":5,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":28.9,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":22.6,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":5,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":28.9,"publicationLock":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-wbozk6","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"shanghai","targetLabel":"Shanghai","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Shanghai's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 19, 2026 reach at least 30.0°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","targetDate":"2026-10-19","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":30,"rawForecastC":25.5,"adjustedForecastC":25.7,"learnedBiasC":0.2,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-30","baselineEnd":"2026-10-13","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":24.9,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":25.5,\"learnedBiasC\":0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":5,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":30,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":25.5,"learnedBiasC":0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":5,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":30,"publicationLock":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-18h53e3","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"singapore","targetLabel":"Singapore","region":"Southeast Asia","question":"Will Singapore's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 19, 2026 reach at least 33.3°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","targetDate":"2026-10-19","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z","probability":53,"thresholdC":33.3,"rawForecastC":31.7,"adjustedForecastC":33.4,"learnedBiasC":1.7,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-30","baselineEnd":"2026-10-13","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":33.4,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","brierScore":0.2209,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":31.7,\"learnedBiasC\":1.7,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":5,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.3,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":31.7,"learnedBiasC":1.7,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":5,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.3,"publicationLock":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1xinvah","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sydney","targetLabel":"Sydney","region":"Oceania","question":"Will Sydney's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 19, 2026 reach at least 26.4°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","targetDate":"2026-10-19","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":26.4,"rawForecastC":21.1,"adjustedForecastC":20.8,"learnedBiasC":-0.3,"uncertaintyC":2.2,"baselineStart":"2026-08-30","baselineEnd":"2026-10-13","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":21.3,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":21.1,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.3,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":5,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.2,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":26.4,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":21.1,"learnedBiasC":-0.3,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":5,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":2.2,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":26.4,"publicationLock":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1os8f9b","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"tokyo","targetLabel":"Tokyo","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Tokyo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 19, 2026 reach at least 26.0°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","targetDate":"2026-10-19","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z","probability":67,"thresholdC":26,"rawForecastC":25.5,"adjustedForecastC":26.6,"learnedBiasC":1.1,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-30","baselineEnd":"2026-10-13","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":27.1,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","brierScore":0.1089,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-24T00:05:24.439Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":25.5,\"learnedBiasC\":1.1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":5,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":26,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":25.5,"learnedBiasC":1.1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":5,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":26,"publicationLock":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1jjps8y","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"cairo","targetLabel":"Cairo","region":"North Africa","question":"Will Cairo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 18, 2026 reach at least 33.1°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-17T00:45:47.145Z","targetDate":"2026-10-18","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-23T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":33.1,"rawForecastC":28.7,"adjustedForecastC":28.6,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-29","baselineEnd":"2026-10-12","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":30,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":28.7,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":5,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.1,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-17T00:45:47.145Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":28.7,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":5,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.1,"publicationLock":"2026-10-17T00:45:47.145Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-nr6i08","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"delhi","targetLabel":"Delhi","region":"South Asia","question":"Will Delhi's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 18, 2026 reach at least 34.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-17T00:45:47.145Z","targetDate":"2026-10-18","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-23T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":34.7,"rawForecastC":29.1,"adjustedForecastC":29.3,"learnedBiasC":0.2,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-29","baselineEnd":"2026-10-12","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":29.4,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":29.1,\"learnedBiasC\":0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":5,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":34.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-17T00:45:47.145Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":29.1,"learnedBiasC":0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":5,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":34.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-17T00:45:47.145Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-18xhke8","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"houston","targetLabel":"Houston","region":"North America","question":"Will Houston's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 18, 2026 reach at least 33.5°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-17T00:45:47.145Z","targetDate":"2026-10-18","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-23T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":33.5,"rawForecastC":24,"adjustedForecastC":23.7,"learnedBiasC":-0.3,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-29","baselineEnd":"2026-10-12","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":23.6,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":24,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.3,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":5,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.5,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-17T00:45:47.145Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":24,"learnedBiasC":-0.3,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":5,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.5,"publicationLock":"2026-10-17T00:45:47.145Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1xezfeo","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"lagos","targetLabel":"Lagos","region":"West Africa","question":"Will Lagos's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 18, 2026 reach at least 29.0°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-17T00:45:47.145Z","targetDate":"2026-10-18","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-23T12:00:00.000Z","probability":67,"thresholdC":29,"rawForecastC":29,"adjustedForecastC":29.6,"learnedBiasC":0.6,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-29","baselineEnd":"2026-10-12","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":30,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","brierScore":0.1089,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":29,\"learnedBiasC\":0.6,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":5,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":29,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-17T00:45:47.145Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":29,"learnedBiasC":0.6,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":5,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":29,"publicationLock":"2026-10-17T00:45:47.145Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-14tiy11","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"madrid","targetLabel":"Madrid","region":"Europe","question":"Will Madrid's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 18, 2026 reach at least 32.1°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-17T00:45:47.145Z","targetDate":"2026-10-18","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-23T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":32.1,"rawForecastC":14.2,"adjustedForecastC":14.6,"learnedBiasC":0.4,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-29","baselineEnd":"2026-10-12","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":13.5,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":14.2,\"learnedBiasC\":0.4,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":5,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":32.1,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-17T00:45:47.145Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":14.2,"learnedBiasC":0.4,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":5,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":32.1,"publicationLock":"2026-10-17T00:45:47.145Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-5t6as5","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"mexico-city","targetLabel":"Mexico City","region":"North America","question":"Will Mexico City's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 18, 2026 reach at least 24.5°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-17T00:45:47.145Z","targetDate":"2026-10-18","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-23T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":24.5,"rawForecastC":21.4,"adjustedForecastC":20.8,"learnedBiasC":-0.6,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-29","baselineEnd":"2026-10-12","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":22.5,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":21.4,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.6,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":5,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":24.5,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-17T00:45:47.145Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":21.4,"learnedBiasC":-0.6,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":5,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":24.5,"publicationLock":"2026-10-17T00:45:47.145Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1meo1oj","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"phoenix","targetLabel":"Phoenix","region":"North America","question":"Will Phoenix's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 18, 2026 reach at least 38.1°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-17T00:45:47.145Z","targetDate":"2026-10-18","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-23T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":38.1,"rawForecastC":28.4,"adjustedForecastC":28.4,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-29","baselineEnd":"2026-10-12","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":28.1,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":28.4,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":5,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":38.1,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-17T00:45:47.145Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":28.4,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":5,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":38.1,"publicationLock":"2026-10-17T00:45:47.145Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1ag679r","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sao-paulo","targetLabel":"São Paulo","region":"South America","question":"Will São Paulo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 18, 2026 reach at least 28.9°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-17T00:45:47.145Z","targetDate":"2026-10-18","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-23T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":28.9,"rawForecastC":24.4,"adjustedForecastC":24.3,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-29","baselineEnd":"2026-10-12","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":24.1,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":24.4,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":5,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":28.9,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-17T00:45:47.145Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":24.4,"learnedBiasC":-0.1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":5,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":28.9,"publicationLock":"2026-10-17T00:45:47.145Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-wlol95","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"shanghai","targetLabel":"Shanghai","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Shanghai's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 18, 2026 reach at least 30.0°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-17T00:45:47.145Z","targetDate":"2026-10-18","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-23T12:00:00.000Z","probability":95,"thresholdC":30,"rawForecastC":32.4,"adjustedForecastC":32.6,"learnedBiasC":0.2,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-29","baselineEnd":"2026-10-12","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":32.7,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":32.4,\"learnedBiasC\":0.2,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":5,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":30,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-17T00:45:47.145Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":32.4,"learnedBiasC":0.2,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":5,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":30,"publicationLock":"2026-10-17T00:45:47.145Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1875hp4","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"singapore","targetLabel":"Singapore","region":"Southeast Asia","question":"Will Singapore's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 18, 2026 reach at least 33.2°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-17T00:45:47.145Z","targetDate":"2026-10-18","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-23T12:00:00.000Z","probability":25,"thresholdC":33.2,"rawForecastC":30.6,"adjustedForecastC":32.3,"learnedBiasC":1.7,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-29","baselineEnd":"2026-10-12","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":33.2,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","brierScore":0.5625,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":30.6,\"learnedBiasC\":1.7,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":5,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.2,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-17T00:45:47.145Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":30.6,"learnedBiasC":1.7,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":5,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.2,"publicationLock":"2026-10-17T00:45:47.145Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1x8o9li","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sydney","targetLabel":"Sydney","region":"Oceania","question":"Will Sydney's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 18, 2026 reach at least 25.8°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-17T00:45:47.145Z","targetDate":"2026-10-18","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-23T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":25.8,"rawForecastC":19.7,"adjustedForecastC":19.4,"learnedBiasC":-0.3,"uncertaintyC":2.2,"baselineStart":"2026-08-29","baselineEnd":"2026-10-12","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":20.8,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":19.7,\"learnedBiasC\":-0.3,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":5,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.2,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":25.8,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-17T00:45:47.145Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":19.7,"learnedBiasC":-0.3,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":5,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":2.2,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":25.8,"publicationLock":"2026-10-17T00:45:47.145Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1oi8tkc","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"tokyo","targetLabel":"Tokyo","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Tokyo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 18, 2026 reach at least 26.4°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-17T00:45:47.145Z","targetDate":"2026-10-18","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-23T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":26.4,"rawForecastC":22.2,"adjustedForecastC":23.3,"learnedBiasC":1.1,"uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-29","baselineEnd":"2026-10-12","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":24.9,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-23T00:01:15.441Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":22.2,\"learnedBiasC\":1.1,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":5,\"learningState\":\"early-learning\",\"uncertaintyC\":1.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":26.4,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-17T00:45:47.145Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":22.2,"learnedBiasC":1.1,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":5,"learningState":"early-learning","uncertaintyC":1.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":26.4,"publicationLock":"2026-10-17T00:45:47.145Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1kdolbv","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"cairo","targetLabel":"Cairo","region":"North Africa","question":"Will Cairo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 17, 2026 reach at least 33.5°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","targetDate":"2026-10-17","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-22T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":33.5,"rawForecastC":28.7,"adjustedForecastC":28.7,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-28","baselineEnd":"2026-10-11","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":28.2,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-22T00:01:19.862Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-22T00:01:19.862Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":28.7,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":3,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.5,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":28.7,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":3,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.5,"publicationLock":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-nh6wb9","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"delhi","targetLabel":"Delhi","region":"South Asia","question":"Will Delhi's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 17, 2026 reach at least 34.9°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","targetDate":"2026-10-17","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-22T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":34.9,"rawForecastC":29,"adjustedForecastC":29,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-28","baselineEnd":"2026-10-11","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":29.2,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-22T00:01:19.862Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-22T00:01:19.862Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":29,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":3,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":34.9,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":29,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":3,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":34.9,"publicationLock":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1d3blst","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"houston","targetLabel":"Houston","region":"North America","question":"Will Houston's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 17, 2026 reach at least 33.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","targetDate":"2026-10-17","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-22T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":33.6,"rawForecastC":22.2,"adjustedForecastC":22.2,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-28","baselineEnd":"2026-10-11","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":21.5,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-22T00:01:19.862Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-22T00:01:19.862Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":22.2,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":3,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":22.2,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":3,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-2jpeu5","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"lagos","targetLabel":"Lagos","region":"West Africa","question":"Will Lagos's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 17, 2026 reach at least 29.0°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","targetDate":"2026-10-17","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-22T12:00:00.000Z","probability":62,"thresholdC":29,"rawForecastC":29.7,"adjustedForecastC":29.7,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-28","baselineEnd":"2026-10-11","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":30.2,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-22T00:01:19.862Z","brierScore":0.1444,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-22T00:01:19.862Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":29.7,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":3,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":29,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":29.7,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":3,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":29,"publicationLock":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-153ijq0","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"madrid","targetLabel":"Madrid","region":"Europe","question":"Will Madrid's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 17, 2026 reach at least 32.1°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","targetDate":"2026-10-17","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-22T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":32.1,"rawForecastC":22.3,"adjustedForecastC":22.3,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-28","baselineEnd":"2026-10-11","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":21.9,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-22T00:01:19.862Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-22T00:01:19.862Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":22.3,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":3,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":32.1,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":22.3,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":3,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":32.1,"publicationLock":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-635wh4","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"mexico-city","targetLabel":"Mexico City","region":"North America","question":"Will Mexico City's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 17, 2026 reach at least 24.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","targetDate":"2026-10-17","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-22T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":24.7,"rawForecastC":16.6,"adjustedForecastC":16.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-28","baselineEnd":"2026-10-11","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":18.4,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-22T00:01:19.862Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-22T00:01:19.862Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":16.6,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":3,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":24.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":16.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":3,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":24.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1q0ivp6","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"phoenix","targetLabel":"Phoenix","region":"North America","question":"Will Phoenix's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 17, 2026 reach at least 38.4°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","targetDate":"2026-10-17","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-22T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":38.4,"rawForecastC":28.8,"adjustedForecastC":28.8,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-28","baselineEnd":"2026-10-11","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":28.7,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-22T00:01:19.862Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-22T00:01:19.862Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":28.8,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":3,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":38.4,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":28.8,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":3,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":38.4,"publicationLock":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1bu47qm","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sao-paulo","targetLabel":"São Paulo","region":"South America","question":"Will São Paulo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 17, 2026 reach at least 28.9°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","targetDate":"2026-10-17","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-22T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":28.9,"rawForecastC":24.4,"adjustedForecastC":24.4,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-28","baselineEnd":"2026-10-11","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":21.8,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-22T00:01:19.862Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-22T00:01:19.862Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":24.4,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":3,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":28.9,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":24.4,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":3,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":28.9,"publicationLock":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-z3l0hw","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"shanghai","targetLabel":"Shanghai","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Shanghai's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 17, 2026 reach at least 30.2°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","targetDate":"2026-10-17","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-22T12:00:00.000Z","probability":25,"thresholdC":30.2,"rawForecastC":28.7,"adjustedForecastC":28.7,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-28","baselineEnd":"2026-10-11","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":29.5,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-22T00:01:19.862Z","brierScore":0.0625,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-22T00:01:19.862Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":28.7,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":3,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":30.2,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":28.7,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":3,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":30.2,"publicationLock":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-17x5w05","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"singapore","targetLabel":"Singapore","region":"Southeast Asia","question":"Will Singapore's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 17, 2026 reach at least 33.3°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","targetDate":"2026-10-17","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-22T12:00:00.000Z","probability":17,"thresholdC":33.3,"rawForecastC":31.1,"adjustedForecastC":31.1,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-28","baselineEnd":"2026-10-11","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":32,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-22T00:01:19.862Z","brierScore":0.0289,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-22T00:01:19.862Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":31.1,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":3,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.3,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":31.1,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":3,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.3,"publicationLock":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-19fu93","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sydney","targetLabel":"Sydney","region":"Oceania","question":"Will Sydney's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 17, 2026 reach at least 25.4°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","targetDate":"2026-10-17","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-22T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":25.4,"rawForecastC":19.6,"adjustedForecastC":19.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-28","baselineEnd":"2026-10-11","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":19.4,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-22T00:01:19.862Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-22T00:01:19.862Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":19.6,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":3,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":25.4,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":19.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":3,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":25.4,"publicationLock":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1qg61f5","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"tokyo","targetLabel":"Tokyo","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Tokyo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 17, 2026 reach at least 26.5°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","targetDate":"2026-10-17","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-22T12:00:00.000Z","probability":16,"thresholdC":26.5,"rawForecastC":24.2,"adjustedForecastC":24.2,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-28","baselineEnd":"2026-10-11","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":26,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-22T00:01:19.862Z","brierScore":0.0256,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-22T00:01:19.862Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":24.2,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":3,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":26.5,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":24.2,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":3,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":26.5,"publicationLock":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1k3ozmw","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"cairo","targetLabel":"Cairo","region":"North Africa","question":"Will Cairo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 16, 2026 reach at least 33.8°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","targetDate":"2026-10-16","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":33.8,"rawForecastC":27.7,"adjustedForecastC":27.7,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-27","baselineEnd":"2026-10-10","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":28.1,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":27.7,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":2,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.8,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":27.7,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":2,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.8,"publicationLock":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-n77ama","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"delhi","targetLabel":"Delhi","region":"South Asia","question":"Will Delhi's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 16, 2026 reach at least 34.9°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","targetDate":"2026-10-16","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":34.9,"rawForecastC":29.6,"adjustedForecastC":29.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-27","baselineEnd":"2026-10-10","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":28.5,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":29.6,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":2,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":34.9,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":29.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":2,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":34.9,"publicationLock":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1ctc03u","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"houston","targetLabel":"Houston","region":"North America","question":"Will Houston's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 16, 2026 reach at least 33.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","targetDate":"2026-10-16","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":33.6,"rawForecastC":28.6,"adjustedForecastC":28.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-27","baselineEnd":"2026-10-10","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":28.3,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":28.6,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":2,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":28.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":2,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-29pt56","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"lagos","targetLabel":"Lagos","region":"West Africa","question":"Will Lagos's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 16, 2026 reach at least 29.0°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","targetDate":"2026-10-16","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z","probability":62,"thresholdC":29,"rawForecastC":29.7,"adjustedForecastC":29.7,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-27","baselineEnd":"2026-10-10","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":30.4,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","brierScore":0.1444,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":29.7,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":2,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":29,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":29.7,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":2,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":29,"publicationLock":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-15di5ez","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"madrid","targetLabel":"Madrid","region":"Europe","question":"Will Madrid's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 16, 2026 reach at least 32.1°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","targetDate":"2026-10-16","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":32.1,"rawForecastC":26.2,"adjustedForecastC":26.2,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-27","baselineEnd":"2026-10-10","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":25.5,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":26.2,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":2,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":32.1,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":26.2,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":2,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":32.1,"publicationLock":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-6d5i63","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"mexico-city","targetLabel":"Mexico City","region":"North America","question":"Will Mexico City's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 16, 2026 reach at least 24.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","targetDate":"2026-10-16","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z","probability":27,"thresholdC":24.7,"rawForecastC":23.3,"adjustedForecastC":23.3,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-27","baselineEnd":"2026-10-10","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":22,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","brierScore":0.0729,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":23.3,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":2,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":24.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":23.3,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":2,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":24.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1qaihe5","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"phoenix","targetLabel":"Phoenix","region":"North America","question":"Will Phoenix's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 16, 2026 reach at least 38.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","targetDate":"2026-10-16","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":38.6,"rawForecastC":30.9,"adjustedForecastC":30.9,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-27","baselineEnd":"2026-10-10","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":30.3,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":30.9,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":2,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":38.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":30.9,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":2,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":38.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1c43tfl","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sao-paulo","targetLabel":"São Paulo","region":"South America","question":"Will São Paulo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 16, 2026 reach at least 28.9°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","targetDate":"2026-10-16","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z","probability":9,"thresholdC":28.9,"rawForecastC":25.7,"adjustedForecastC":25.7,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-27","baselineEnd":"2026-10-10","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":25.6,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","brierScore":0.0081,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":25.7,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":2,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":28.9,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":25.7,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":2,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":28.9,"publicationLock":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-zdkm6v","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"shanghai","targetLabel":"Shanghai","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Shanghai's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 16, 2026 reach at least 30.2°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","targetDate":"2026-10-16","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z","probability":12,"thresholdC":30.2,"rawForecastC":27.5,"adjustedForecastC":27.5,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-27","baselineEnd":"2026-10-10","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":27.2,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","brierScore":0.0144,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":27.5,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":2,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":30.2,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":27.5,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":2,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":30.2,"publicationLock":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-17n6ab6","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"singapore","targetLabel":"Singapore","region":"Southeast Asia","question":"Will Singapore's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 16, 2026 reach at least 33.3°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","targetDate":"2026-10-16","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z","probability":15,"thresholdC":33.3,"rawForecastC":30.9,"adjustedForecastC":30.9,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-27","baselineEnd":"2026-10-10","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":33.4,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","brierScore":0.7225,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":30.9,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":2,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.3,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":30.9,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":2,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.3,"publicationLock":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-zg8k4","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sydney","targetLabel":"Sydney","region":"Oceania","question":"Will Sydney's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 16, 2026 reach at least 25.3°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","targetDate":"2026-10-16","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":25.3,"rawForecastC":18.1,"adjustedForecastC":18.1,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-27","baselineEnd":"2026-10-10","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":19.4,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":18.1,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":2,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":25.3,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":18.1,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":2,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":25.3,"publicationLock":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1q66fq6","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"tokyo","targetLabel":"Tokyo","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Tokyo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 16, 2026 reach at least 26.5°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","targetDate":"2026-10-16","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z","probability":48,"thresholdC":26.5,"rawForecastC":26.4,"adjustedForecastC":26.4,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-27","baselineEnd":"2026-10-10","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":27.8,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","brierScore":0.2704,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-21T00:00:07.371Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":26.4,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":2,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":26.5,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":26.4,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":2,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":26.5,"publicationLock":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1kxnspt","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"cairo","targetLabel":"Cairo","region":"North Africa","question":"Will Cairo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 15, 2026 reach at least 33.8°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-14T00:33:12.816Z","targetDate":"2026-10-15","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-20T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":33.8,"rawForecastC":28.3,"adjustedForecastC":28.3,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-26","baselineEnd":"2026-10-09","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":28.7,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":28.3,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":2,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.8,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-14T00:33:12.816Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":28.3,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":2,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.8,"publicationLock":"2026-10-14T00:33:12.816Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-mx7oxb","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"delhi","targetLabel":"Delhi","region":"South Asia","question":"Will Delhi's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 15, 2026 reach at least 34.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-14T00:33:12.816Z","targetDate":"2026-10-15","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-20T12:00:00.000Z","probability":6,"thresholdC":34.7,"rawForecastC":30.9,"adjustedForecastC":30.9,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-26","baselineEnd":"2026-10-09","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":25.3,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","brierScore":0.0036,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":30.9,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":2,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":34.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-14T00:33:12.816Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":30.9,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":2,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":34.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-14T00:33:12.816Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1cjceev","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"houston","targetLabel":"Houston","region":"North America","question":"Will Houston's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 15, 2026 reach at least 33.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-14T00:33:12.816Z","targetDate":"2026-10-15","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-20T12:00:00.000Z","probability":18,"thresholdC":33.6,"rawForecastC":31.5,"adjustedForecastC":31.5,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-26","baselineEnd":"2026-10-09","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":33.2,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","brierScore":0.0324,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":31.5,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":2,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-14T00:33:12.816Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":31.5,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":2,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-14T00:33:12.816Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1zq7g7","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"lagos","targetLabel":"Lagos","region":"West Africa","question":"Will Lagos's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 15, 2026 reach at least 28.8°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-14T00:33:12.816Z","targetDate":"2026-10-15","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-20T12:00:00.000Z","probability":64,"thresholdC":28.8,"rawForecastC":29.6,"adjustedForecastC":29.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-26","baselineEnd":"2026-10-09","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":29.7,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","brierScore":0.1296,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":29.6,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":2,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":28.8,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-14T00:33:12.816Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":29.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":2,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":28.8,"publicationLock":"2026-10-14T00:33:12.816Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-15nhr3y","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"madrid","targetLabel":"Madrid","region":"Europe","question":"Will Madrid's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 15, 2026 reach at least 32.1°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-14T00:33:12.816Z","targetDate":"2026-10-15","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-20T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":32.1,"rawForecastC":25.8,"adjustedForecastC":25.8,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-26","baselineEnd":"2026-10-09","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":25.4,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":25.8,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":2,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":32.1,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-14T00:33:12.816Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":25.8,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":2,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":32.1,"publicationLock":"2026-10-14T00:33:12.816Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-6n53v2","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"mexico-city","targetLabel":"Mexico City","region":"North America","question":"Will Mexico City's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 15, 2026 reach at least 24.5°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-14T00:33:12.816Z","targetDate":"2026-10-15","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-20T12:00:00.000Z","probability":17,"thresholdC":24.5,"rawForecastC":22.3,"adjustedForecastC":22.3,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-26","baselineEnd":"2026-10-09","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":22.9,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","brierScore":0.0289,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":22.3,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":2,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":24.5,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-14T00:33:12.816Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":22.3,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":2,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":24.5,"publicationLock":"2026-10-14T00:33:12.816Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1pgjob8","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"phoenix","targetLabel":"Phoenix","region":"North America","question":"Will Phoenix's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 15, 2026 reach at least 38.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-14T00:33:12.816Z","targetDate":"2026-10-15","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-20T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":38.7,"rawForecastC":30.9,"adjustedForecastC":30.9,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-26","baselineEnd":"2026-10-09","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":30.6,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":30.9,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":2,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":38.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-14T00:33:12.816Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":30.9,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":2,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":38.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-14T00:33:12.816Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1ba50co","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sao-paulo","targetLabel":"São Paulo","region":"South America","question":"Will São Paulo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 15, 2026 reach at least 28.1°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-14T00:33:12.816Z","targetDate":"2026-10-15","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-20T12:00:00.000Z","probability":19,"thresholdC":28.1,"rawForecastC":26.1,"adjustedForecastC":26.1,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-26","baselineEnd":"2026-10-09","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":27.1,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","brierScore":0.0361,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":26.1,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":2,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":28.1,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-14T00:33:12.816Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":26.1,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":2,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":28.1,"publicationLock":"2026-10-14T00:33:12.816Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-znk7vu","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"shanghai","targetLabel":"Shanghai","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Shanghai's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 15, 2026 reach at least 30.2°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-14T00:33:12.816Z","targetDate":"2026-10-15","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-20T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":30.2,"rawForecastC":24.6,"adjustedForecastC":24.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-26","baselineEnd":"2026-10-09","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":25,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":24.6,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":2,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":30.2,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-14T00:33:12.816Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":24.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":2,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":30.2,"publicationLock":"2026-10-14T00:33:12.816Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-17d6om7","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"singapore","targetLabel":"Singapore","region":"Southeast Asia","question":"Will Singapore's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 15, 2026 reach at least 33.2°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-14T00:33:12.816Z","targetDate":"2026-10-15","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-20T12:00:00.000Z","probability":43,"thresholdC":33.2,"rawForecastC":32.8,"adjustedForecastC":32.8,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-26","baselineEnd":"2026-10-09","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":30.7,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","brierScore":0.1849,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":32.8,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":2,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.2,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-14T00:33:12.816Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":32.8,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":2,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.2,"publicationLock":"2026-10-14T00:33:12.816Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1tf1n1","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sydney","targetLabel":"Sydney","region":"Oceania","question":"Will Sydney's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 15, 2026 reach at least 23.9°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-14T00:33:12.816Z","targetDate":"2026-10-15","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-20T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":23.9,"rawForecastC":18.2,"adjustedForecastC":18.2,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-26","baselineEnd":"2026-10-09","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":18.4,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":18.2,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":2,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":23.9,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-14T00:33:12.816Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":18.2,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":2,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":23.9,"publicationLock":"2026-10-14T00:33:12.816Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1pw6u17","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"tokyo","targetLabel":"Tokyo","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Tokyo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 15, 2026 reach at least 26.4°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-14T00:33:12.816Z","targetDate":"2026-10-15","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-20T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":26.4,"rawForecastC":22.3,"adjustedForecastC":22.3,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-26","baselineEnd":"2026-10-09","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":23.1,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-20T00:15:32.144Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":22.3,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":2,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":26.4,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-14T00:33:12.816Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":22.3,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":2,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":26.4,"publicationLock":"2026-10-14T00:33:12.816Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1kno70u","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"cairo","targetLabel":"Cairo","region":"North Africa","question":"Will Cairo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 14, 2026 reach at least 34.0°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","targetDate":"2026-10-14","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-19T12:00:00.000Z","probability":20,"thresholdC":34,"rawForecastC":32.1,"adjustedForecastC":32.1,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-25","baselineEnd":"2026-10-08","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":33.1,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","brierScore":0.04,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":32.1,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":34,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":32.1,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":34,"publicationLock":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-mn838c","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"delhi","targetLabel":"Delhi","region":"South Asia","question":"Will Delhi's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 14, 2026 reach at least 34.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","targetDate":"2026-10-14","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-19T12:00:00.000Z","probability":12,"thresholdC":34.7,"rawForecastC":32,"adjustedForecastC":32,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-25","baselineEnd":"2026-10-08","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":32.1,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","brierScore":0.0144,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":32,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":34.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":32,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":34.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1c9cspw","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"houston","targetLabel":"Houston","region":"North America","question":"Will Houston's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 14, 2026 reach at least 33.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","targetDate":"2026-10-14","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-19T12:00:00.000Z","probability":33,"thresholdC":33.6,"rawForecastC":32.6,"adjustedForecastC":32.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-25","baselineEnd":"2026-10-08","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":32,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","brierScore":0.1089,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":32.6,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":32.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1pqlr8","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"lagos","targetLabel":"Lagos","region":"West Africa","question":"Will Lagos's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 14, 2026 reach at least 28.8°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","targetDate":"2026-10-14","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-19T12:00:00.000Z","probability":52,"thresholdC":28.8,"rawForecastC":28.9,"adjustedForecastC":28.9,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-25","baselineEnd":"2026-10-08","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":29.1,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","brierScore":0.2304,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":28.9,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":28.8,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":28.9,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":28.8,"publicationLock":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-15xhcsx","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"madrid","targetLabel":"Madrid","region":"Europe","question":"Will Madrid's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 14, 2026 reach at least 32.1°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","targetDate":"2026-10-14","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-19T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":32.1,"rawForecastC":25.9,"adjustedForecastC":25.9,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-25","baselineEnd":"2026-10-08","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":26.7,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":25.9,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":32.1,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":25.9,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":32.1,"publicationLock":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-6x4pk1","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"mexico-city","targetLabel":"Mexico City","region":"North America","question":"Will Mexico City's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 14, 2026 reach at least 24.5°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","targetDate":"2026-10-14","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-19T12:00:00.000Z","probability":34,"thresholdC":24.5,"rawForecastC":23.6,"adjustedForecastC":23.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-25","baselineEnd":"2026-10-08","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":24.1,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","brierScore":0.1156,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":23.6,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":24.5,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":23.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":24.5,"publicationLock":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1pqja07","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"phoenix","targetLabel":"Phoenix","region":"North America","question":"Will Phoenix's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 14, 2026 reach at least 38.8°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","targetDate":"2026-10-14","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-19T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":38.8,"rawForecastC":26,"adjustedForecastC":26,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-25","baselineEnd":"2026-10-08","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":25,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":26,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":38.8,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":26,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":38.8,"publicationLock":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1bk4m1n","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sao-paulo","targetLabel":"São Paulo","region":"South America","question":"Will São Paulo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 14, 2026 reach at least 26.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","targetDate":"2026-10-14","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-19T12:00:00.000Z","probability":62,"thresholdC":26.7,"rawForecastC":27.4,"adjustedForecastC":27.4,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-25","baselineEnd":"2026-10-08","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":27.3,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","brierScore":0.1444,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":27.4,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":26.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":27.4,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":26.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-zxjtkt","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"shanghai","targetLabel":"Shanghai","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Shanghai's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 14, 2026 reach at least 30.2°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","targetDate":"2026-10-14","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-19T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":30.2,"rawForecastC":24.6,"adjustedForecastC":24.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-25","baselineEnd":"2026-10-08","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":24.2,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":24.6,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":30.2,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":24.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":30.2,"publicationLock":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-17372x8","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"singapore","targetLabel":"Singapore","region":"Southeast Asia","question":"Will Singapore's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 14, 2026 reach at least 33.2°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","targetDate":"2026-10-14","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-19T12:00:00.000Z","probability":27,"thresholdC":33.2,"rawForecastC":31.8,"adjustedForecastC":31.8,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-25","baselineEnd":"2026-10-08","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":33.2,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","brierScore":0.5329,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":31.8,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.2,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":31.8,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.2,"publicationLock":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1jffy2","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sydney","targetLabel":"Sydney","region":"Oceania","question":"Will Sydney's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 14, 2026 reach at least 23.9°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","targetDate":"2026-10-14","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-19T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":23.9,"rawForecastC":16.7,"adjustedForecastC":16.7,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-25","baselineEnd":"2026-10-08","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":16.2,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":16.7,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":23.9,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":16.7,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":23.9,"publicationLock":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1pm78c8","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"tokyo","targetLabel":"Tokyo","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Tokyo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 14, 2026 reach at least 26.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","targetDate":"2026-10-14","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-19T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":26.6,"rawForecastC":22.4,"adjustedForecastC":22.4,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-25","baselineEnd":"2026-10-08","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":26.2,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-19T00:08:43.976Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":22.4,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":26.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":22.4,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":26.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1lhn03r","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"cairo","targetLabel":"Cairo","region":"North Africa","question":"Will Cairo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 13, 2026 reach at least 34.5°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-12T00:02:49.847Z","targetDate":"2026-10-13","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z","probability":9,"thresholdC":34.5,"rawForecastC":31.3,"adjustedForecastC":31.3,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-24","baselineEnd":"2026-10-07","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":30.7,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","brierScore":0.0081,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":31.3,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":34.5,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-12T00:02:49.847Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":31.3,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":34.5,"publicationLock":"2026-10-12T00:02:49.847Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-md8hjd","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"delhi","targetLabel":"Delhi","region":"South Asia","question":"Will Delhi's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 13, 2026 reach at least 34.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-12T00:02:49.847Z","targetDate":"2026-10-13","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z","probability":16,"thresholdC":34.7,"rawForecastC":32.4,"adjustedForecastC":32.4,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-24","baselineEnd":"2026-10-07","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":31.1,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","brierScore":0.0256,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":32.4,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":34.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-12T00:02:49.847Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":32.4,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":34.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-12T00:02:49.847Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1bzd70x","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"houston","targetLabel":"Houston","region":"North America","question":"Will Houston's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 13, 2026 reach at least 33.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-12T00:02:49.847Z","targetDate":"2026-10-13","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z","probability":43,"thresholdC":33.6,"rawForecastC":33.2,"adjustedForecastC":33.2,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-24","baselineEnd":"2026-10-07","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":32.8,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","brierScore":0.1849,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":33.2,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-12T00:02:49.847Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":33.2,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-12T00:02:49.847Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1fr029","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"lagos","targetLabel":"Lagos","region":"West Africa","question":"Will Lagos's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 13, 2026 reach at least 28.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-12T00:02:49.847Z","targetDate":"2026-10-13","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z","probability":41,"thresholdC":28.7,"rawForecastC":28.2,"adjustedForecastC":28.2,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-24","baselineEnd":"2026-10-07","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":29,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","brierScore":0.3481,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":28.2,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":28.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-12T00:02:49.847Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":28.2,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":28.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-12T00:02:49.847Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-167gyhw","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"madrid","targetLabel":"Madrid","region":"Europe","question":"Will Madrid's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 13, 2026 reach at least 32.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-12T00:02:49.847Z","targetDate":"2026-10-13","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":32.7,"rawForecastC":27.6,"adjustedForecastC":27.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-24","baselineEnd":"2026-10-07","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":27.8,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":27.6,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":32.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-12T00:02:49.847Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":27.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":32.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-12T00:02:49.847Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-774b90","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"mexico-city","targetLabel":"Mexico City","region":"North America","question":"Will Mexico City's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 13, 2026 reach at least 24.5°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-12T00:02:49.847Z","targetDate":"2026-10-13","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z","probability":30,"thresholdC":24.5,"rawForecastC":23.3,"adjustedForecastC":23.3,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-24","baselineEnd":"2026-10-07","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":24,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","brierScore":0.09,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":23.3,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":24.5,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-12T00:02:49.847Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":23.3,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":24.5,"publicationLock":"2026-10-12T00:02:49.847Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1owkgxa","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"phoenix","targetLabel":"Phoenix","region":"North America","question":"Will Phoenix's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 13, 2026 reach at least 39.1°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-12T00:02:49.847Z","targetDate":"2026-10-13","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":39.1,"rawForecastC":26.9,"adjustedForecastC":26.9,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-24","baselineEnd":"2026-10-07","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":25.6,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":26.9,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":39.1,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-12T00:02:49.847Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":26.9,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":39.1,"publicationLock":"2026-10-12T00:02:49.847Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1cy2mii","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sao-paulo","targetLabel":"São Paulo","region":"South America","question":"Will São Paulo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 13, 2026 reach at least 26.4°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-12T00:02:49.847Z","targetDate":"2026-10-13","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z","probability":62,"thresholdC":26.4,"rawForecastC":27.1,"adjustedForecastC":27.1,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-24","baselineEnd":"2026-10-07","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":23.5,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","brierScore":0.3844,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":27.1,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":26.4,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-12T00:02:49.847Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":27.1,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":26.4,"publicationLock":"2026-10-12T00:02:49.847Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-xzmlq0","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"shanghai","targetLabel":"Shanghai","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Shanghai's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 13, 2026 reach at least 30.5°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-12T00:02:49.847Z","targetDate":"2026-10-13","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":30.5,"rawForecastC":26.3,"adjustedForecastC":26.3,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-24","baselineEnd":"2026-10-07","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":27.2,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":26.3,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":30.5,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-12T00:02:49.847Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":26.3,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":30.5,"publicationLock":"2026-10-12T00:02:49.847Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-16t7h89","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"singapore","targetLabel":"Singapore","region":"Southeast Asia","question":"Will Singapore's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 13, 2026 reach at least 33.2°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-12T00:02:49.847Z","targetDate":"2026-10-13","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z","probability":17,"thresholdC":33.2,"rawForecastC":31,"adjustedForecastC":31,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-24","baselineEnd":"2026-10-07","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":31,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","brierScore":0.0289,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":31,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.2,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-12T00:02:49.847Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":31,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.2,"publicationLock":"2026-10-12T00:02:49.847Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-5hfh7","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sydney","targetLabel":"Sydney","region":"Oceania","question":"Will Sydney's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 13, 2026 reach at least 23.9°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-12T00:02:49.847Z","targetDate":"2026-10-13","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":23.9,"rawForecastC":19.7,"adjustedForecastC":19.7,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-24","baselineEnd":"2026-10-07","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":19.8,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":19.7,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":23.9,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-12T00:02:49.847Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":19.7,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":23.9,"publicationLock":"2026-10-12T00:02:49.847Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1rk4g71","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"tokyo","targetLabel":"Tokyo","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Tokyo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 13, 2026 reach at least 26.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-12T00:02:49.847Z","targetDate":"2026-10-13","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z","probability":21,"thresholdC":26.6,"rawForecastC":24.8,"adjustedForecastC":24.8,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-24","baselineEnd":"2026-10-07","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":25.8,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","brierScore":0.0441,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-18T00:15:46.157Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":24.8,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":26.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-12T00:02:49.847Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":24.8,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":26.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-12T00:02:49.847Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1l7nees","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"cairo","targetLabel":"Cairo","region":"North Africa","question":"Will Cairo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 12, 2026 reach at least 35.5°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-11T00:16:18.844Z","targetDate":"2026-10-12","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":35.5,"rawForecastC":30.6,"adjustedForecastC":30.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-23","baselineEnd":"2026-10-06","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":30.8,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-17T00:32:50.854Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-17T00:32:50.854Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":30.6,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":35.5,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-11T00:16:18.844Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":30.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":35.5,"publicationLock":"2026-10-11T00:16:18.844Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-m38vue","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"delhi","targetLabel":"Delhi","region":"South Asia","question":"Will Delhi's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 12, 2026 reach at least 34.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-11T00:16:18.844Z","targetDate":"2026-10-12","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z","probability":31,"thresholdC":34.6,"rawForecastC":33.5,"adjustedForecastC":33.5,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-23","baselineEnd":"2026-10-06","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":29,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-17T00:32:50.854Z","brierScore":0.0961,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-17T00:32:50.854Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":33.5,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":34.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-11T00:16:18.844Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":33.5,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":34.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-11T00:16:18.844Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1bpdlby","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"houston","targetLabel":"Houston","region":"North America","question":"Will Houston's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 12, 2026 reach at least 33.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-11T00:16:18.844Z","targetDate":"2026-10-12","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z","probability":16,"thresholdC":33.6,"rawForecastC":31.3,"adjustedForecastC":31.3,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-23","baselineEnd":"2026-10-06","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":31.6,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-17T00:32:50.854Z","brierScore":0.0256,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-17T00:32:50.854Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":31.3,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-11T00:16:18.844Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":31.3,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-11T00:16:18.844Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-15reda","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"lagos","targetLabel":"Lagos","region":"West Africa","question":"Will Lagos's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 12, 2026 reach at least 28.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-11T00:16:18.844Z","targetDate":"2026-10-12","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z","probability":54,"thresholdC":28.7,"rawForecastC":28.9,"adjustedForecastC":28.9,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-23","baselineEnd":"2026-10-06","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":29.5,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-17T00:32:50.854Z","brierScore":0.2116,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-17T00:32:50.854Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":28.9,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":28.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-11T00:16:18.844Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":28.9,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":28.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-11T00:16:18.844Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-16hgk6v","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"madrid","targetLabel":"Madrid","region":"Europe","question":"Will Madrid's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 12, 2026 reach at least 33.2°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-11T00:16:18.844Z","targetDate":"2026-10-12","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":33.2,"rawForecastC":25.3,"adjustedForecastC":25.3,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-23","baselineEnd":"2026-10-06","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":25.9,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-17T00:32:50.854Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-17T00:32:50.854Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":25.3,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.2,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-11T00:16:18.844Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":25.3,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.2,"publicationLock":"2026-10-11T00:16:18.844Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-7h3wxz","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"mexico-city","targetLabel":"Mexico City","region":"North America","question":"Will Mexico City's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 12, 2026 reach at least 24.5°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-11T00:16:18.844Z","targetDate":"2026-10-12","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z","probability":20,"thresholdC":24.5,"rawForecastC":22.6,"adjustedForecastC":22.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-23","baselineEnd":"2026-10-06","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":23.8,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-17T00:32:50.854Z","brierScore":0.04,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-17T00:32:50.854Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":22.6,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":24.5,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-11T00:16:18.844Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":22.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":24.5,"publicationLock":"2026-10-11T00:16:18.844Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1p6k2m9","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"phoenix","targetLabel":"Phoenix","region":"North America","question":"Will Phoenix's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 12, 2026 reach at least 39.5°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-11T00:16:18.844Z","targetDate":"2026-10-12","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":39.5,"rawForecastC":29.4,"adjustedForecastC":29.4,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-23","baselineEnd":"2026-10-06","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":28.3,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-17T00:32:50.854Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-17T00:32:50.854Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":29.4,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":39.5,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-11T00:16:18.844Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":29.4,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":39.5,"publicationLock":"2026-10-11T00:16:18.844Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1d8287h","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sao-paulo","targetLabel":"São Paulo","region":"South America","question":"Will São Paulo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 12, 2026 reach at least 26.4°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-11T00:16:18.844Z","targetDate":"2026-10-12","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z","probability":61,"thresholdC":26.4,"rawForecastC":27,"adjustedForecastC":27,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-23","baselineEnd":"2026-10-06","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":24.8,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-17T00:32:50.854Z","brierScore":0.3721,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-17T00:32:50.854Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":27,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":26.4,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-11T00:16:18.844Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":27,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":26.4,"publicationLock":"2026-10-11T00:16:18.844Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-y9m7ez","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"shanghai","targetLabel":"Shanghai","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Shanghai's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 12, 2026 reach at least 30.5°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-11T00:16:18.844Z","targetDate":"2026-10-12","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":30.5,"rawForecastC":26,"adjustedForecastC":26,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-23","baselineEnd":"2026-10-06","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":25.3,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-17T00:32:50.854Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-17T00:32:50.854Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":26,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":30.5,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-11T00:16:18.844Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":26,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":30.5,"publicationLock":"2026-10-11T00:16:18.844Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-16j7vja","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"singapore","targetLabel":"Singapore","region":"Southeast Asia","question":"Will Singapore's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 12, 2026 reach at least 33.2°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-11T00:16:18.844Z","targetDate":"2026-10-12","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z","probability":10,"thresholdC":33.2,"rawForecastC":30.1,"adjustedForecastC":30.1,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-23","baselineEnd":"2026-10-06","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":32.4,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-17T00:32:50.854Z","brierScore":0.01,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-17T00:32:50.854Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":30.1,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.2,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-11T00:16:18.844Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":30.1,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.2,"publicationLock":"2026-10-11T00:16:18.844Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1ywlvrc","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sydney","targetLabel":"Sydney","region":"Oceania","question":"Will Sydney's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 12, 2026 reach at least 23.9°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-11T00:16:18.844Z","targetDate":"2026-10-12","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z","probability":95,"thresholdC":23.9,"rawForecastC":33.2,"adjustedForecastC":33.2,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-23","baselineEnd":"2026-10-06","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":32.8,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-17T00:32:50.854Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-17T00:32:50.854Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":33.2,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":23.9,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-11T00:16:18.844Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":33.2,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":23.9,"publicationLock":"2026-10-11T00:16:18.844Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1ra4ui2","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"tokyo","targetLabel":"Tokyo","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Tokyo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 12, 2026 reach at least 26.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-11T00:16:18.844Z","targetDate":"2026-10-12","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z","probability":15,"thresholdC":26.6,"rawForecastC":24.2,"adjustedForecastC":24.2,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-23","baselineEnd":"2026-10-06","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":26,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-17T00:32:50.854Z","brierScore":0.0225,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-17T00:32:50.854Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":24.2,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":26.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-11T00:16:18.844Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":24.2,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":26.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-11T00:16:18.844Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1m1m7hp","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"cairo","targetLabel":"Cairo","region":"North Africa","question":"Will Cairo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 11, 2026 reach at least 36.2°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-10T00:15:54.700Z","targetDate":"2026-10-11","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":36.2,"rawForecastC":30.2,"adjustedForecastC":30.2,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-22","baselineEnd":"2026-10-05","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":29.2,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":30.2,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":36.2,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-10T00:15:54.700Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":30.2,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":36.2,"publicationLock":"2026-10-10T00:15:54.700Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-lt9a5f","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"delhi","targetLabel":"Delhi","region":"South Asia","question":"Will Delhi's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 11, 2026 reach at least 34.5°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-10T00:15:54.700Z","targetDate":"2026-10-11","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":34.5,"rawForecastC":29.3,"adjustedForecastC":29.3,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-22","baselineEnd":"2026-10-05","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":29.8,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":29.3,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":34.5,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-10T00:15:54.700Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":29.3,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":34.5,"publicationLock":"2026-10-10T00:15:54.700Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1bfdzmz","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"houston","targetLabel":"Houston","region":"North America","question":"Will Houston's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 11, 2026 reach at least 33.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-10T00:15:54.700Z","targetDate":"2026-10-11","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z","probability":28,"thresholdC":33.6,"rawForecastC":32.3,"adjustedForecastC":32.3,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-22","baselineEnd":"2026-10-05","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":32.1,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","brierScore":0.0784,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":32.3,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-10T00:15:54.700Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":32.3,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-10T00:15:54.700Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-vrsob","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"lagos","targetLabel":"Lagos","region":"West Africa","question":"Will Lagos's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 11, 2026 reach at least 28.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-10T00:15:54.700Z","targetDate":"2026-10-11","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z","probability":61,"thresholdC":28.7,"rawForecastC":29.3,"adjustedForecastC":29.3,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-22","baselineEnd":"2026-10-05","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":30,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","brierScore":0.1521,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":29.3,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":28.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-10T00:15:54.700Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":29.3,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":28.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-10T00:15:54.700Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-16rg5vu","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"madrid","targetLabel":"Madrid","region":"Europe","question":"Will Madrid's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 11, 2026 reach at least 33.4°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-10T00:15:54.700Z","targetDate":"2026-10-11","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":33.4,"rawForecastC":23.2,"adjustedForecastC":23.2,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-22","baselineEnd":"2026-10-05","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":24.8,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":23.2,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.4,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-10T00:15:54.700Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":23.2,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.4,"publicationLock":"2026-10-10T00:15:54.700Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-7r3imy","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"mexico-city","targetLabel":"Mexico City","region":"North America","question":"Will Mexico City's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 11, 2026 reach at least 24.5°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-10T00:15:54.700Z","targetDate":"2026-10-11","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z","probability":7,"thresholdC":24.5,"rawForecastC":21,"adjustedForecastC":21,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-22","baselineEnd":"2026-10-05","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":21.7,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","brierScore":0.0049,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":21,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":24.5,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-10T00:15:54.700Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":21,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":24.5,"publicationLock":"2026-10-10T00:15:54.700Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1ocl9jc","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"phoenix","targetLabel":"Phoenix","region":"North America","question":"Will Phoenix's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 11, 2026 reach at least 39.8°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-10T00:15:54.700Z","targetDate":"2026-10-11","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":39.8,"rawForecastC":30,"adjustedForecastC":30,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-22","baselineEnd":"2026-10-05","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":30.2,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":30,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":39.8,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-10T00:15:54.700Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":30,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":39.8,"publicationLock":"2026-10-10T00:15:54.700Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1ce3f4k","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sao-paulo","targetLabel":"São Paulo","region":"South America","question":"Will São Paulo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 11, 2026 reach at least 26.4°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-10T00:15:54.700Z","targetDate":"2026-10-11","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z","probability":41,"thresholdC":26.4,"rawForecastC":25.9,"adjustedForecastC":25.9,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-22","baselineEnd":"2026-10-05","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":25.5,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","brierScore":0.1681,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":25.9,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":26.4,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-10T00:15:54.700Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":25.9,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":26.4,"publicationLock":"2026-10-10T00:15:54.700Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-yjlt3y","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"shanghai","targetLabel":"Shanghai","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Shanghai's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 11, 2026 reach at least 30.5°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-10T00:15:54.700Z","targetDate":"2026-10-11","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":30.5,"rawForecastC":25.5,"adjustedForecastC":25.5,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-22","baselineEnd":"2026-10-05","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":26,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":25.5,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":30.5,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-10T00:15:54.700Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":25.5,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":30.5,"publicationLock":"2026-10-10T00:15:54.700Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-16989ub","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"singapore","targetLabel":"Singapore","region":"Southeast Asia","question":"Will Singapore's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 11, 2026 reach at least 33.2°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-10T00:15:54.700Z","targetDate":"2026-10-11","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z","probability":7,"thresholdC":33.2,"rawForecastC":29.6,"adjustedForecastC":29.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-22","baselineEnd":"2026-10-05","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":31.6,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","brierScore":0.0049,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":29.6,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.2,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-10T00:15:54.700Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":29.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.2,"publicationLock":"2026-10-10T00:15:54.700Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-pgmv5","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sydney","targetLabel":"Sydney","region":"Oceania","question":"Will Sydney's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 11, 2026 reach at least 23.8°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-10T00:15:54.700Z","targetDate":"2026-10-11","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z","probability":88,"thresholdC":23.8,"rawForecastC":26.6,"adjustedForecastC":26.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-22","baselineEnd":"2026-10-05","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":29.7,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","brierScore":0.0144,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":26.6,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":23.8,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-10T00:15:54.700Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":26.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":23.8,"publicationLock":"2026-10-10T00:15:54.700Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1r058t3","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"tokyo","targetLabel":"Tokyo","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Tokyo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 11, 2026 reach at least 26.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-10T00:15:54.700Z","targetDate":"2026-10-11","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z","probability":30,"thresholdC":26.6,"rawForecastC":25.4,"adjustedForecastC":25.4,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-22","baselineEnd":"2026-10-05","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":27.5,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","brierScore":0.49,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-16T00:00:44.379Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":25.4,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":26.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-10T00:15:54.700Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":25.4,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":26.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-10T00:15:54.700Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1lrmlsq","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"cairo","targetLabel":"Cairo","region":"North Africa","question":"Will Cairo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 10, 2026 reach at least 36.3°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-09T00:02:26.003Z","targetDate":"2026-10-10","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-15T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":36.3,"rawForecastC":30.1,"adjustedForecastC":30.1,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-21","baselineEnd":"2026-10-04","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":30.4,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":30.1,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":36.3,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-09T00:02:26.003Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":30.1,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":36.3,"publicationLock":"2026-10-09T00:02:26.003Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-lj9ogg","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"delhi","targetLabel":"Delhi","region":"South Asia","question":"Will Delhi's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 10, 2026 reach at least 34.2°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-09T00:02:26.003Z","targetDate":"2026-10-10","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-15T12:00:00.000Z","probability":13,"thresholdC":34.2,"rawForecastC":31.6,"adjustedForecastC":31.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-21","baselineEnd":"2026-10-04","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":33.2,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","brierScore":0.0169,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":31.6,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":34.2,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-09T00:02:26.003Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":31.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":34.2,"publicationLock":"2026-10-09T00:02:26.003Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1b5edy0","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"houston","targetLabel":"Houston","region":"North America","question":"Will Houston's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 10, 2026 reach at least 33.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-09T00:02:26.003Z","targetDate":"2026-10-10","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-15T12:00:00.000Z","probability":27,"thresholdC":33.6,"rawForecastC":32.2,"adjustedForecastC":32.2,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-21","baselineEnd":"2026-10-04","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":30.7,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","brierScore":0.0729,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":32.2,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-09T00:02:26.003Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":32.2,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-09T00:02:26.003Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-ls6zc","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"lagos","targetLabel":"Lagos","region":"West Africa","question":"Will Lagos's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 10, 2026 reach at least 28.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-09T00:02:26.003Z","targetDate":"2026-10-10","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-15T12:00:00.000Z","probability":52,"thresholdC":28.7,"rawForecastC":28.8,"adjustedForecastC":28.8,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-21","baselineEnd":"2026-10-04","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":30.1,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","brierScore":0.2304,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":28.8,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":28.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-09T00:02:26.003Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":28.8,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":28.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-09T00:02:26.003Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-171frkt","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"madrid","targetLabel":"Madrid","region":"Europe","question":"Will Madrid's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 10, 2026 reach at least 33.9°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-09T00:02:26.003Z","targetDate":"2026-10-10","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-15T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":33.9,"rawForecastC":23.2,"adjustedForecastC":23.2,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-21","baselineEnd":"2026-10-04","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":23.8,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":23.2,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.9,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-09T00:02:26.003Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":23.2,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.9,"publicationLock":"2026-10-09T00:02:26.003Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-8134bx","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"mexico-city","targetLabel":"Mexico City","region":"North America","question":"Will Mexico City's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 10, 2026 reach at least 24.5°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-09T00:02:26.003Z","targetDate":"2026-10-10","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-15T12:00:00.000Z","probability":8,"thresholdC":24.5,"rawForecastC":21.2,"adjustedForecastC":21.2,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-21","baselineEnd":"2026-10-04","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":20.1,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","brierScore":0.0064,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":21.2,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":24.5,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-09T00:02:26.003Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":21.2,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":24.5,"publicationLock":"2026-10-09T00:02:26.003Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1omkv8b","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"phoenix","targetLabel":"Phoenix","region":"North America","question":"Will Phoenix's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 10, 2026 reach at least 39.8°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-09T00:02:26.003Z","targetDate":"2026-10-10","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-15T12:00:00.000Z","probability":17,"thresholdC":39.8,"rawForecastC":37.6,"adjustedForecastC":37.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-21","baselineEnd":"2026-10-04","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":37.5,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","brierScore":0.0289,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":37.6,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":39.8,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-09T00:02:26.003Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":37.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":39.8,"publicationLock":"2026-10-09T00:02:26.003Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1co30tj","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sao-paulo","targetLabel":"São Paulo","region":"South America","question":"Will São Paulo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 10, 2026 reach at least 26.4°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-09T00:02:26.003Z","targetDate":"2026-10-10","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-15T12:00:00.000Z","probability":93,"thresholdC":26.4,"rawForecastC":29.9,"adjustedForecastC":29.9,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-21","baselineEnd":"2026-10-04","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":29,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","brierScore":0.0049,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":29.9,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":26.4,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-09T00:02:26.003Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":29.9,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":26.4,"publicationLock":"2026-10-09T00:02:26.003Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-ytlesx","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"shanghai","targetLabel":"Shanghai","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Shanghai's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 10, 2026 reach at least 30.5°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-09T00:02:26.003Z","targetDate":"2026-10-10","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-15T12:00:00.000Z","probability":6,"thresholdC":30.5,"rawForecastC":26.7,"adjustedForecastC":26.7,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-21","baselineEnd":"2026-10-04","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":25.8,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","brierScore":0.0036,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":26.7,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":30.5,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-09T00:02:26.003Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":26.7,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":30.5,"publicationLock":"2026-10-09T00:02:26.003Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-15z8o5c","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"singapore","targetLabel":"Singapore","region":"Southeast Asia","question":"Will Singapore's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 10, 2026 reach at least 33.2°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-09T00:02:26.003Z","targetDate":"2026-10-10","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-15T12:00:00.000Z","probability":9,"thresholdC":33.2,"rawForecastC":30,"adjustedForecastC":30,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-21","baselineEnd":"2026-10-04","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":33.2,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","brierScore":0.8281,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":30,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.2,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-09T00:02:26.003Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":30,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.2,"publicationLock":"2026-10-09T00:02:26.003Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-fh166","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sydney","targetLabel":"Sydney","region":"Oceania","question":"Will Sydney's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 10, 2026 reach at least 23.9°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-09T00:02:26.003Z","targetDate":"2026-10-10","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-15T12:00:00.000Z","probability":95,"thresholdC":23.9,"rawForecastC":30.5,"adjustedForecastC":30.5,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-21","baselineEnd":"2026-10-04","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":26.7,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":30.5,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":23.9,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-09T00:02:26.003Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":30.5,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":23.9,"publicationLock":"2026-10-09T00:02:26.003Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1qq5n44","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"tokyo","targetLabel":"Tokyo","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Tokyo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 10, 2026 reach at least 26.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-09T00:02:26.003Z","targetDate":"2026-10-10","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-15T12:00:00.000Z","probability":20,"thresholdC":26.6,"rawForecastC":24.7,"adjustedForecastC":24.7,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-21","baselineEnd":"2026-10-04","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":25.4,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","brierScore":0.04,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-15T00:00:52.539Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":24.7,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":26.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-09T00:02:26.003Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":24.7,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":26.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-09T00:02:26.003Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1ghxb48","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"cairo","targetLabel":"Cairo","region":"North Africa","question":"Will Cairo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 9, 2026 reach at least 36.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-08T00:06:41.105Z","targetDate":"2026-10-09","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-14T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":36.7,"rawForecastC":30.2,"adjustedForecastC":30.2,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-20","baselineEnd":"2026-10-03","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":30.4,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-14T00:01:54.572Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-14T00:01:54.572Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":30.2,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":36.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-08T00:06:41.105Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":30.2,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":36.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-08T00:06:41.105Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-p57nz2","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"delhi","targetLabel":"Delhi","region":"South Asia","question":"Will Delhi's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 9, 2026 reach at least 33.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-08T00:06:41.105Z","targetDate":"2026-10-09","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-14T12:00:00.000Z","probability":16,"thresholdC":33.7,"rawForecastC":31.4,"adjustedForecastC":31.4,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-20","baselineEnd":"2026-10-03","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":34.1,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-14T00:01:54.572Z","brierScore":0.7056,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-14T00:01:54.572Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":31.4,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-08T00:06:41.105Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":31.4,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-08T00:06:41.105Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-aszt6e","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"houston","targetLabel":"Houston","region":"North America","question":"Will Houston's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 9, 2026 reach at least 33.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-08T00:06:41.105Z","targetDate":"2026-10-09","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-14T12:00:00.000Z","probability":33,"thresholdC":33.6,"rawForecastC":32.6,"adjustedForecastC":32.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-20","baselineEnd":"2026-10-03","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":33.7,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-14T00:01:54.572Z","brierScore":0.4489,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-14T00:01:54.572Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":32.6,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-08T00:06:41.105Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":32.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-08T00:06:41.105Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-zaho6u","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"lagos","targetLabel":"Lagos","region":"West Africa","question":"Will Lagos's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 9, 2026 reach at least 28.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-08T00:06:41.105Z","targetDate":"2026-10-09","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-14T12:00:00.000Z","probability":54,"thresholdC":28.7,"rawForecastC":28.9,"adjustedForecastC":28.9,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-20","baselineEnd":"2026-10-03","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":28.9,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-14T00:01:54.572Z","brierScore":0.2116,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-14T00:01:54.572Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":28.9,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":28.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-08T00:06:41.105Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":28.9,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":28.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-08T00:06:41.105Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-13fhs27","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"madrid","targetLabel":"Madrid","region":"Europe","question":"Will Madrid's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 9, 2026 reach at least 34.0°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-08T00:06:41.105Z","targetDate":"2026-10-09","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-14T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":34,"rawForecastC":19.8,"adjustedForecastC":19.8,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-20","baselineEnd":"2026-10-03","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":19.6,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-14T00:01:54.572Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-14T00:01:54.572Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":19.8,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":34,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-08T00:06:41.105Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":19.8,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":34,"publicationLock":"2026-10-08T00:06:41.105Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-13xo1zz","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"mexico-city","targetLabel":"Mexico City","region":"North America","question":"Will Mexico City's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 9, 2026 reach at least 24.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-08T00:06:41.105Z","targetDate":"2026-10-09","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-14T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":24.6,"rawForecastC":20.1,"adjustedForecastC":20.1,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-20","baselineEnd":"2026-10-03","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":18.5,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-14T00:01:54.572Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-14T00:01:54.572Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":20.1,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":24.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-08T00:06:41.105Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":20.1,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":24.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-08T00:06:41.105Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1pggit9","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"phoenix","targetLabel":"Phoenix","region":"North America","question":"Will Phoenix's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 9, 2026 reach at least 39.8°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-08T00:06:41.105Z","targetDate":"2026-10-09","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-14T12:00:00.000Z","probability":27,"thresholdC":39.8,"rawForecastC":38.4,"adjustedForecastC":38.4,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-20","baselineEnd":"2026-10-03","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":38.2,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-14T00:01:54.572Z","brierScore":0.0729,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-14T00:01:54.572Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":38.4,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":39.8,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-08T00:06:41.105Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":38.4,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":39.8,"publicationLock":"2026-10-08T00:06:41.105Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-19251ax","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sao-paulo","targetLabel":"São Paulo","region":"South America","question":"Will São Paulo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 9, 2026 reach at least 26.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-08T00:06:41.105Z","targetDate":"2026-10-09","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-14T12:00:00.000Z","probability":92,"thresholdC":26.7,"rawForecastC":30,"adjustedForecastC":30,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-20","baselineEnd":"2026-10-03","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":32.2,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-14T00:01:54.572Z","brierScore":0.0064,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-14T00:01:54.572Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":30,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":26.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-08T00:06:41.105Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":30,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":26.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-08T00:06:41.105Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-v7nfab","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"shanghai","targetLabel":"Shanghai","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Shanghai's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 9, 2026 reach at least 30.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-08T00:06:41.105Z","targetDate":"2026-10-09","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-14T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":30.6,"rawForecastC":24.9,"adjustedForecastC":24.9,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-20","baselineEnd":"2026-10-03","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":26.1,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-14T00:01:54.572Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-14T00:01:54.572Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":24.9,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":30.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-08T00:06:41.105Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":24.9,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":30.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-08T00:06:41.105Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-a2nqha","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"singapore","targetLabel":"Singapore","region":"Southeast Asia","question":"Will Singapore's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 9, 2026 reach at least 33.0°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-08T00:06:41.105Z","targetDate":"2026-10-09","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-14T12:00:00.000Z","probability":38,"thresholdC":33,"rawForecastC":32.3,"adjustedForecastC":32.3,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-20","baselineEnd":"2026-10-03","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":33.2,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-14T00:01:54.572Z","brierScore":0.3844,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-14T00:01:54.572Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":32.3,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-08T00:06:41.105Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":32.3,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33,"publicationLock":"2026-10-08T00:06:41.105Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1ympfkc","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sydney","targetLabel":"Sydney","region":"Oceania","question":"Will Sydney's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 9, 2026 reach at least 23.9°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-08T00:06:41.105Z","targetDate":"2026-10-09","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-14T12:00:00.000Z","probability":14,"thresholdC":23.9,"rawForecastC":21.4,"adjustedForecastC":21.4,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-20","baselineEnd":"2026-10-03","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":20.8,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-14T00:01:54.572Z","brierScore":0.0196,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-14T00:01:54.572Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":21.4,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":23.9,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-08T00:06:41.105Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":21.4,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":23.9,"publicationLock":"2026-10-08T00:06:41.105Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1pw9zj6","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"tokyo","targetLabel":"Tokyo","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Tokyo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 9, 2026 reach at least 26.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-08T00:06:41.105Z","targetDate":"2026-10-09","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-14T12:00:00.000Z","probability":17,"thresholdC":26.6,"rawForecastC":24.4,"adjustedForecastC":24.4,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-20","baselineEnd":"2026-10-03","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":25.2,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-14T00:01:54.572Z","brierScore":0.0289,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-14T00:01:54.572Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":24.4,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":26.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-08T00:06:41.105Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":24.4,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":26.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-08T00:06:41.105Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1grwwt7","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"cairo","targetLabel":"Cairo","region":"North Africa","question":"Will Cairo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 8, 2026 reach at least 36.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-07T00:01:30.945Z","targetDate":"2026-10-08","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":36.7,"rawForecastC":30.8,"adjustedForecastC":30.8,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-19","baselineEnd":"2026-10-02","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":30.7,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":30.8,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":36.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-07T00:01:30.945Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":30.8,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":36.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-07T00:01:30.945Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-pf79o1","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"delhi","targetLabel":"Delhi","region":"South Asia","question":"Will Delhi's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 8, 2026 reach at least 33.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-07T00:01:30.945Z","targetDate":"2026-10-08","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z","probability":38,"thresholdC":33.7,"rawForecastC":33,"adjustedForecastC":33,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-19","baselineEnd":"2026-10-02","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":33.5,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","brierScore":0.1444,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":33,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-07T00:01:30.945Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":33,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-07T00:01:30.945Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-b2zevd","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"houston","targetLabel":"Houston","region":"North America","question":"Will Houston's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 8, 2026 reach at least 33.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-07T00:01:30.945Z","targetDate":"2026-10-08","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z","probability":48,"thresholdC":33.6,"rawForecastC":33.5,"adjustedForecastC":33.5,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-19","baselineEnd":"2026-10-02","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":32.3,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","brierScore":0.2304,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":33.5,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-07T00:01:30.945Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":33.5,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-07T00:01:30.945Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-zkh9vt","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"lagos","targetLabel":"Lagos","region":"West Africa","question":"Will Lagos's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 8, 2026 reach at least 28.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-07T00:01:30.945Z","targetDate":"2026-10-08","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z","probability":45,"thresholdC":28.7,"rawForecastC":28.4,"adjustedForecastC":28.4,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-19","baselineEnd":"2026-10-02","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":29,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","brierScore":0.3025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":28.4,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":28.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-07T00:01:30.945Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":28.4,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":28.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-07T00:01:30.945Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-135i6d8","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"madrid","targetLabel":"Madrid","region":"Europe","question":"Will Madrid's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 8, 2026 reach at least 34.2°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-07T00:01:30.945Z","targetDate":"2026-10-08","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":34.2,"rawForecastC":20.6,"adjustedForecastC":20.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-19","baselineEnd":"2026-10-02","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":20.2,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":20.6,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":34.2,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-07T00:01:30.945Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":20.6,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":34.2,"publicationLock":"2026-10-07T00:01:30.945Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-13nogb0","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"mexico-city","targetLabel":"Mexico City","region":"North America","question":"Will Mexico City's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 8, 2026 reach at least 24.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-07T00:01:30.945Z","targetDate":"2026-10-08","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z","probability":18,"thresholdC":24.6,"rawForecastC":22.5,"adjustedForecastC":22.5,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-19","baselineEnd":"2026-10-02","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":20.2,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","brierScore":0.0324,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":22.5,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":24.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-07T00:01:30.945Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":22.5,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":24.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-07T00:01:30.945Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1p6gx4a","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"phoenix","targetLabel":"Phoenix","region":"North America","question":"Will Phoenix's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 8, 2026 reach at least 39.8°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-07T00:01:30.945Z","targetDate":"2026-10-08","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z","probability":19,"thresholdC":39.8,"rawForecastC":37.8,"adjustedForecastC":37.8,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-19","baselineEnd":"2026-10-02","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":38.8,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","brierScore":0.0361,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":37.8,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":39.8,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-07T00:01:30.945Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":37.8,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":39.8,"publicationLock":"2026-10-07T00:01:30.945Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-18s5fly","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sao-paulo","targetLabel":"São Paulo","region":"South America","question":"Will São Paulo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 8, 2026 reach at least 26.7°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-07T00:01:30.945Z","targetDate":"2026-10-08","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z","probability":87,"thresholdC":26.7,"rawForecastC":29.3,"adjustedForecastC":29.3,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-19","baselineEnd":"2026-10-02","status":"occurred","outcome":1,"observedValueC":30,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","brierScore":0.0169,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":29.3,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":26.7,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-07T00:01:30.945Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":29.3,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":26.7,"publicationLock":"2026-10-07T00:01:30.945Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-uxntlc","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"shanghai","targetLabel":"Shanghai","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Shanghai's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 8, 2026 reach at least 30.6°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-07T00:01:30.945Z","targetDate":"2026-10-08","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":30.6,"rawForecastC":24.5,"adjustedForecastC":24.5,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-19","baselineEnd":"2026-10-02","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":25.2,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":24.5,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":30.6,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-07T00:01:30.945Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":24.5,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":30.6,"publicationLock":"2026-10-07T00:01:30.945Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-acnc69","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"singapore","targetLabel":"Singapore","region":"Southeast Asia","question":"Will Singapore's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 8, 2026 reach at least 33.0°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-07T00:01:30.945Z","targetDate":"2026-10-08","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z","probability":36,"thresholdC":33,"rawForecastC":32.2,"adjustedForecastC":32.2,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-19","baselineEnd":"2026-10-02","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":32.5,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","brierScore":0.1296,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":32.2,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":33,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-07T00:01:30.945Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":32.2,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":33,"publicationLock":"2026-10-07T00:01:30.945Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1ywp19b","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"sydney","targetLabel":"Sydney","region":"Oceania","question":"Will Sydney's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 8, 2026 reach at least 25.0°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-07T00:01:30.945Z","targetDate":"2026-10-08","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z","probability":5,"thresholdC":25,"rawForecastC":17.5,"adjustedForecastC":17.5,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-19","baselineEnd":"2026-10-02","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":17.8,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","brierScore":0.0025,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":17.5,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":25,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-07T00:01:30.945Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":17.5,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":25,"publicationLock":"2026-10-07T00:01:30.945Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}},{"id":"aft-1q69l85","schemaVersion":"WP-ADAPTIVE-FORECAST-1.0","modelVersion":"WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1","kind":"daily-temperature-threshold","targetKey":"tokyo","targetLabel":"Tokyo","region":"East Asia","question":"Will Tokyo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 8, 2026 reach at least 27.1°C?","issuedAt":"2026-10-07T00:01:30.945Z","targetDate":"2026-10-08","resolvesAfter":"2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z","probability":9,"thresholdC":27.1,"rawForecastC":23.9,"adjustedForecastC":23.9,"learnedBiasC":0,"uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStart":"2026-08-19","baselineEnd":"2026-10-02","status":"did-not-occur","outcome":0,"observedValueC":23.9,"resolvedAt":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","brierScore":0.0081,"sourceName":"Open-Meteo","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","resolutionSourceName":"Open-Meteo Historical Weather API","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/historical-weather-api","resolutionRetrievedAt":"2026-10-13T00:15:12.184Z","inputsJson":"{\"providerForecastC\":23.9,\"learnedBiasC\":0,\"learnedFromResolvedTrials\":0,\"learningState\":\"warming\",\"uncertaintyC\":2.5,\"baselineStatistic\":\"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature\",\"baselineObservationCount\":30,\"thresholdC\":27.1,\"publicationLock\":\"2026-10-07T00:01:30.945Z\",\"resolutionRule\":\"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.\"}","inputs":{"providerForecastC":23.9,"learnedBiasC":0,"learnedFromResolvedTrials":0,"learningState":"warming","uncertaintyC":2.5,"baselineStatistic":"Trailing 30-observation 75th percentile of daily maximum temperature","baselineObservationCount":30,"thresholdC":27.1,"publicationLock":"2026-10-07T00:01:30.945Z","resolutionRule":"YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance."}}]}