{"schemaVersion":"WP-SCENARIO-API-1.0","engineVersion":"WP-SCENARIO-RULES-1.0","classification":"deterministic_counterfactual_scenario","title":"User-set causal scenario","truthLabels":{"scenarioNotForecast":"This is a scenario, not a forecast.","probability":"No probability or likelihood is calculated.","advice":"This is general research, not financial, investment, or household advice.","liveData":"No live or current-condition data is used."},"referenceCase":{"label":"No additional shock","inputs":{"energy":0,"food":0,"rates":0,"shipping":0,"unemployment":0,"conflict":0},"explanation":"Results compare the selected shocks with the same unspecified starting point and all six controls set to unchanged."},"counterfactual":{"comparison":"Selected scenario versus an otherwise identical reference case with no additional shocks.","changedInputs":[]},"inputScale":{"minimum":-2,"maximum":2,"meaning":"Ordinal scenario bands only. They are not percentages, prices, rate points, or measured changes."},"inputs":[{"key":"energy","label":"Energy costs","question":"What if fuel, power, and heating costs move?","lowPole":"Costs fall","highPole":"Costs rise","selectedLevel":0,"selectedLabel":"No additional change"},{"key":"food","label":"Food costs","question":"What if staple and grocery costs move?","lowPole":"Costs fall","highPole":"Costs rise","selectedLevel":0,"selectedLabel":"No additional change"},{"key":"rates","label":"Interest rates","question":"What if borrowing and policy rates move?","lowPole":"Rates fall","highPole":"Rates rise","selectedLevel":0,"selectedLabel":"No additional change"},{"key":"shipping","label":"Shipping disruption","question":"What if ports, routes, and delivery reliability change?","lowPole":"Routes ease","highPole":"Disruption rises","selectedLevel":0,"selectedLabel":"No additional change"},{"key":"unemployment","label":"Unemployment","question":"What if joblessness moves?","lowPole":"Joblessness falls","highPole":"Joblessness rises","selectedLevel":0,"selectedLabel":"No additional change"},{"key":"conflict","label":"Conflict and news intensity","question":"What if conflict-related disruption and attention change?","lowPole":"De-escalation","highPole":"Intensity rises","selectedLevel":0,"selectedLabel":"No additional change"}],"summary":{"activeShockCount":0,"conflictingOutcomeCount":0,"statement":"Reference case selected: no additional shock is applied, so every effect remains at little directional change.","headlineEffects":[{"id":"household-essentials","domain":"household","label":"Essentials cost pressure","directionLabel":"Little directional change","magnitude":"little","signalConflict":false},{"id":"household-borrowing","domain":"household","label":"Borrowing strain","directionLabel":"Little directional change","magnitude":"little","signalConflict":false},{"id":"household-jobs","domain":"household","label":"Job insecurity","directionLabel":"Little directional change","magnitude":"little","signalConflict":false}]},"causalGraph":{"interpretation":"Directed rule paths show possible transmission, not proven causation in a named place or time.","nodes":[],"edges":[]},"causalChains":[],"effects":{"household":[{"id":"household-essentials","domain":"household","label":"Essentials cost pressure","plainLanguage":"The share of a household budget absorbed by food, energy, and delivered goods.","direction":"little_change","directionLabel":"Little directional change","magnitude":"little","bandLabel":"Little directional change","signalConflict":false,"sensitivity":"low","sensitivityDetail":"Active rule paths do not pull this outcome in opposite directions.","contributingSignals":[],"modelDisagreement":{"label":"Rule-lens comparison (not trained models)","status":"not_applicable","detail":"No opposing active rule paths make a lens comparison material.","lenses":[{"id":"cost_pass_through","label":"Cost pass-through lens","description":"Gives more weight to energy, food, shipping, and conflict channels reaching prices quickly.","direction":"little_change","directionLabel":"Little directional change","magnitude":"little","bandLabel":"Little directional change"},{"id":"demand_response","label":"Demand-response lens","description":"Gives more weight to rates and unemployment cooling spending and hiring.","direction":"little_change","directionLabel":"Little directional change","magnitude":"little","bandLabel":"Little directional change"}]}},{"id":"household-borrowing","domain":"household","label":"Borrowing strain","plainLanguage":"Pressure from new loans, refinancing, and the ability to keep up with debt payments.","direction":"little_change","directionLabel":"Little directional change","magnitude":"little","bandLabel":"Little directional change","signalConflict":false,"sensitivity":"low","sensitivityDetail":"Active rule paths do not pull this outcome in opposite directions.","contributingSignals":[],"modelDisagreement":{"label":"Rule-lens comparison (not trained models)","status":"not_applicable","detail":"No opposing active rule paths make a lens comparison material.","lenses":[{"id":"cost_pass_through","label":"Cost pass-through lens","description":"Gives more weight to energy, food, shipping, and conflict channels reaching prices quickly.","direction":"little_change","directionLabel":"Little directional change","magnitude":"little","bandLabel":"Little directional change"},{"id":"demand_response","label":"Demand-response lens","description":"Gives more weight to rates and unemployment cooling spending and hiring.","direction":"little_change","directionLabel":"Little directional change","magnitude":"little","bandLabel":"Little directional change"}]}},{"id":"household-jobs","domain":"household","label":"Job insecurity","plainLanguage":"Risk to household income from layoffs, reduced hours, or weaker hiring.","direction":"little_change","directionLabel":"Little directional change","magnitude":"little","bandLabel":"Little directional change","signalConflict":false,"sensitivity":"low","sensitivityDetail":"Active rule paths do not pull this outcome in opposite directions.","contributingSignals":[],"modelDisagreement":{"label":"Rule-lens comparison (not trained models)","status":"not_applicable","detail":"No opposing active rule paths make a lens comparison material.","lenses":[{"id":"cost_pass_through","label":"Cost pass-through lens","description":"Gives more weight to energy, food, shipping, and conflict channels reaching prices quickly.","direction":"little_change","directionLabel":"Little directional change","magnitude":"little","bandLabel":"Little directional change"},{"id":"demand_response","label":"Demand-response lens","description":"Gives more weight to rates and unemployment cooling spending and hiring.","direction":"little_change","directionLabel":"Little directional change","magnitude":"little","bandLabel":"Little directional change"}]}}],"market":[{"id":"market-inflation","domain":"market","label":"Inflation pressure","plainLanguage":"Qualitative pressure on broad prices, not an estimate of an inflation rate.","direction":"little_change","directionLabel":"Little directional change","magnitude":"little","bandLabel":"Little directional change","signalConflict":false,"sensitivity":"low","sensitivityDetail":"Active rule paths do not pull this outcome in opposite directions.","contributingSignals":[],"modelDisagreement":{"label":"Rule-lens comparison (not trained models)","status":"not_applicable","detail":"No opposing active rule paths make a lens comparison material.","lenses":[{"id":"cost_pass_through","label":"Cost pass-through lens","description":"Gives more weight to energy, food, shipping, and conflict channels reaching prices quickly.","direction":"little_change","directionLabel":"Little directional change","magnitude":"little","bandLabel":"Little directional change"},{"id":"demand_response","label":"Demand-response lens","description":"Gives more weight to rates and unemployment cooling spending and hiring.","direction":"little_change","directionLabel":"Little directional change","magnitude":"little","bandLabel":"Little directional change"}]}},{"id":"market-growth","domain":"market","label":"Growth momentum","plainLanguage":"Qualitative pressure on spending and output, not a GDP forecast.","direction":"little_change","directionLabel":"Little directional change","magnitude":"little","bandLabel":"Little directional change","signalConflict":false,"sensitivity":"low","sensitivityDetail":"Active rule paths do not pull this outcome in opposite directions.","contributingSignals":[],"modelDisagreement":{"label":"Rule-lens comparison (not trained models)","status":"not_applicable","detail":"No opposing active rule paths make a lens comparison material.","lenses":[{"id":"cost_pass_through","label":"Cost pass-through lens","description":"Gives more weight to energy, food, shipping, and conflict channels reaching prices quickly.","direction":"little_change","directionLabel":"Little directional change","magnitude":"little","bandLabel":"Little directional change"},{"id":"demand_response","label":"Demand-response lens","description":"Gives more weight to rates and unemployment cooling spending and hiring.","direction":"little_change","directionLabel":"Little directional change","magnitude":"little","bandLabel":"Little directional change"}]}},{"id":"market-volatility","domain":"market","label":"Market volatility pressure","plainLanguage":"Potential for wider price swings; this does not imply an asset return direction.","direction":"little_change","directionLabel":"Little directional change","magnitude":"little","bandLabel":"Little directional change","signalConflict":false,"sensitivity":"low","sensitivityDetail":"Active rule paths do not pull this outcome in opposite directions.","contributingSignals":[],"modelDisagreement":{"label":"Rule-lens comparison (not trained models)","status":"not_applicable","detail":"No opposing active rule paths make a lens comparison material.","lenses":[{"id":"cost_pass_through","label":"Cost pass-through lens","description":"Gives more weight to energy, food, shipping, and conflict channels reaching prices quickly.","direction":"little_change","directionLabel":"Little directional change","magnitude":"little","bandLabel":"Little directional change"},{"id":"demand_response","label":"Demand-response lens","description":"Gives more weight to rates and unemployment cooling spending and hiring.","direction":"little_change","directionLabel":"Little directional change","magnitude":"little","bandLabel":"Little directional change"}]}}],"country":[{"id":"country-importer","domain":"country","label":"Net-importer pressure","plainLanguage":"A stylized country that imports much of its fuel, food, or traded goods; exporters can differ.","direction":"little_change","directionLabel":"Little directional change","magnitude":"little","bandLabel":"Little directional change","signalConflict":false,"sensitivity":"low","sensitivityDetail":"Active rule paths do not pull this outcome in opposite directions.","contributingSignals":[],"modelDisagreement":{"label":"Rule-lens comparison (not trained models)","status":"not_applicable","detail":"No opposing active rule paths make a lens comparison material.","lenses":[{"id":"cost_pass_through","label":"Cost pass-through lens","description":"Gives more weight to energy, food, shipping, and conflict channels reaching prices quickly.","direction":"little_change","directionLabel":"Little directional change","magnitude":"little","bandLabel":"Little directional change"},{"id":"demand_response","label":"Demand-response lens","description":"Gives more weight to rates and unemployment cooling spending and hiring.","direction":"little_change","directionLabel":"Little directional change","magnitude":"little","bandLabel":"Little directional change"}]}},{"id":"country-fiscal","domain":"country","label":"Public-budget strain","plainLanguage":"Pressure from debt service, support programs, subsidies, or weaker tax receipts.","direction":"little_change","directionLabel":"Little directional change","magnitude":"little","bandLabel":"Little directional change","signalConflict":false,"sensitivity":"low","sensitivityDetail":"Active rule paths do not pull this outcome in opposite directions.","contributingSignals":[],"modelDisagreement":{"label":"Rule-lens comparison (not trained models)","status":"not_applicable","detail":"No opposing active rule paths make a lens comparison material.","lenses":[{"id":"cost_pass_through","label":"Cost pass-through lens","description":"Gives more weight to energy, food, shipping, and conflict channels reaching prices quickly.","direction":"little_change","directionLabel":"Little directional change","magnitude":"little","bandLabel":"Little directional change"},{"id":"demand_response","label":"Demand-response lens","description":"Gives more weight to rates and unemployment cooling spending and hiring.","direction":"little_change","directionLabel":"Little directional change","magnitude":"little","bandLabel":"Little directional change"}]}},{"id":"country-trade","domain":"country","label":"Trade activity","plainLanguage":"Qualitative pressure on cross-border goods movement, not a country-specific trade estimate.","direction":"little_change","directionLabel":"Little directional change","magnitude":"little","bandLabel":"Little directional change","signalConflict":false,"sensitivity":"low","sensitivityDetail":"Active rule paths do not pull this outcome in opposite directions.","contributingSignals":[],"modelDisagreement":{"label":"Rule-lens comparison (not trained models)","status":"not_applicable","detail":"No opposing active rule paths make a lens comparison material.","lenses":[{"id":"cost_pass_through","label":"Cost pass-through lens","description":"Gives more weight to energy, food, shipping, and conflict channels reaching prices quickly.","direction":"little_change","directionLabel":"Little directional change","magnitude":"little","bandLabel":"Little directional change"},{"id":"demand_response","label":"Demand-response lens","description":"Gives more weight to rates and unemployment cooling spending and hiring.","direction":"little_change","directionLabel":"Little directional change","magnitude":"little","bandLabel":"Little directional change"}]}}]},"conflicts":{"label":"Signal conflict and sensitivity","explanation":"When active paths pull an outcome both ways, two explicit rule lenses test whether the qualitative result depends on weighting cost pass-through or demand response more heavily.","outcomes":[]},"assumptions":["Every control is a hypothetical change from an unspecified starting point; the engine does not assert today’s baseline.","Paths describe a broad transmission window from weeks to roughly 12 months, but the engine does not estimate timing.","All effects are ordinal direction and magnitude bands. Coefficients only organize declared rules; they are not fitted economic estimates.","Other conditions are held unchanged except for the six selected shocks and their displayed first-order paths.","Household effects describe a generic household; country effects describe stylized importer and public-budget channels, not a named country."],"evidenceLimitations":["No live feed, published payload, private account data, price series, or country baseline enters this calculation.","The rules have not been historically fitted, calibrated, or validated, so the output has no probability or confidence score.","Taxes, subsidies, exchange rates, wages, savings, fixed-rate debt, inventories, contracts, and local policy can weaken or reverse pass-through.","Market effects do not estimate asset prices, returns, valuation, timing, or suitability.","Second-order feedback, non-linear thresholds, and correlations between user-set shocks are intentionally bounded rather than guessed."]}