{"generatedAt":"2026-09-14T08:31:00.436Z","schemaVersion":"WP-STRAITS-1.0","publication":{"manifestId":"pm-49807231bb1e9d90009eb57d7fd5575c66b837da","generation":4215,"publishedAt":"2026-09-14T08:19:26.569Z","dataCutoff":"2026-06-30T23:59:59.000Z"},"sourceSnapshot":{"family":"operations","candidateKeys":["operations:north-america","operations:europe","operations:east-asia","operations:middle-east","operations:africa","operations:oceania"],"portwatch":{"status":"selected","key":"operations:north-america","dataAsOf":"2026-09-06","retrievedAt":"2026-09-14T08:19:06.243Z","publishedAt":"2026-09-14T08:19:06.243Z","records":13},"marad":{"status":"unavailable","key":null,"dataAsOf":null,"retrievedAt":null,"publishedAt":null,"records":0},"reason":"The global maritime resolver independently selects the newest complete PortWatch and valid MARAD receipts from the manifest-pinned regional members; aircraft and vessel positions remain regional."},"status":"current","method":"Only a complete, structurally valid current collection of all 13 tracked PortWatch passages is published. If no regional member passes, current passage evidence is withheld instead of combining partial or stale rows. A latest-available score is a traffic-deviation beta; unmeasured components remain null.","count":13,"straits":[{"id":"chokepoint7","name":"Cape of Good Hope","latitude":-34.9273,"longitude":20.8827,"stress":9,"status":"normal","currentStress":9,"currentStatus":"normal","recordedStress":9,"recordedStatus":"normal","confidence":"low-to-moderate","dataQuality":"usable","freshness":"latest-available","observedAt":"2026-09-06","dataAgeDays":8.4,"scoreMovement":"not-yet-measured","scoreMethod":"traffic-deviation-beta","baseline":89,"sevenDayAverage":78.6,"currentDeviationPct":-14.4,"recordedDeviationPct":-14.4,"latestRecordedTransits":80,"exposure":83,"commoditiesAndChannels":"Suez diversion route and vessel availability","householdImplications":"Longer delivery times and higher freight costs","components":[{"id":"traffic-deviation","label":"Traffic deviation","state":"observed","score":9,"detail":"The recorded seven-day average is 14.4% below the prior comparison period."},{"id":"flow-ratio","label":"Latest flow versus baseline","state":"observed","score":10,"detail":"Latest recorded flow is 0.90 times the historical baseline."},{"id":"maritime-advisories","label":"Official maritime advisories","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"Current MARAD advisory evidence is unavailable, so WorldPredicta is not treating silence as proof that the route is risk-free."},{"id":"data-freshness","label":"Data freshness","state":"observed","score":85,"detail":"The latest traffic observation is approximately 8.4 days old."},{"id":"congestion","label":"Congestion","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"security-exposure","label":"Security exposure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"conflict-exposure","label":"Conflict exposure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"port-closures","label":"Port or passage closures","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"weather","label":"Weather disruption","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance or freight pressure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"corroborated-news","label":"Recent corroborated news","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"source-agreement","label":"Independent source agreement","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."}],"supportingEvidence":["Recorded seven-day traffic deviation: -14.4%.","Normal comparison baseline: 89.0 recorded transits.","Current seven-day average: 78.6 recorded transits."],"contradictingEvidence":[],"whatCouldHappenNext":["If the deviation persists, pressure may spread through suez diversion route and vessel availability.","A short-lived change may reverse without becoming a sustained disruption."],"whatCouldImproveIt":["Recorded traffic returns toward its comparison range.","Current restrictions or advisories are withdrawn.","Independent verified sources show normal passage."],"whatCouldWorsenIt":["Recorded transit declines move farther from the comparison range.","A verified closure, restriction, attack, or port disruption is reported.","Verified freight or insurance pressure rises materially."],"unknowns":["Current traffic data alone does not establish why individual vessels changed route or timing.","Congestion, conflict, weather, port closure, insurance, and freight components are not yet measured in this beta score.","A current stress score is not a forecast of fuel or household prices."],"advisories":[],"history":[{"date":"2026-08-10","total":83},{"date":"2026-08-11","total":102},{"date":"2026-08-12","total":69},{"date":"2026-08-13","total":86},{"date":"2026-08-14","total":81},{"date":"2026-08-15","total":123},{"date":"2026-08-16","total":99},{"date":"2026-08-17","total":83},{"date":"2026-08-18","total":79},{"date":"2026-08-19","total":105},{"date":"2026-08-20","total":99},{"date":"2026-08-21","total":95},{"date":"2026-08-22","total":96},{"date":"2026-08-23","total":84},{"date":"2026-08-24","total":101},{"date":"2026-08-25","total":86},{"date":"2026-08-26","total":83},{"date":"2026-08-27","total":98},{"date":"2026-08-28","total":98},{"date":"2026-08-29","total":89},{"date":"2026-08-30","total":88},{"date":"2026-08-31","total":82},{"date":"2026-09-01","total":100},{"date":"2026-09-02","total":90},{"date":"2026-09-03","total":77},{"date":"2026-09-04","total":58},{"date":"2026-09-05","total":63},{"date":"2026-09-06","total":80}]},{"id":"chokepoint3","name":"Bosporus Strait","latitude":41.1693,"longitude":29.0915,"stress":8,"status":"normal","currentStress":8,"currentStatus":"normal","recordedStress":8,"recordedStatus":"normal","confidence":"low-to-moderate","dataQuality":"usable","freshness":"latest-available","observedAt":"2026-09-06","dataAgeDays":8.4,"scoreMovement":"not-yet-measured","scoreMethod":"traffic-deviation-beta","baseline":66,"sevenDayAverage":53.1,"currentDeviationPct":-13.3,"recordedDeviationPct":-13.3,"latestRecordedTransits":63,"exposure":78,"commoditiesAndChannels":"Black Sea grain, fuel and bulk cargo","householdImplications":"Bread, cooking oil and regional energy costs","components":[{"id":"traffic-deviation","label":"Traffic deviation","state":"observed","score":8,"detail":"The recorded seven-day average is 13.3% below the prior comparison period."},{"id":"flow-ratio","label":"Latest flow versus baseline","state":"observed","score":5,"detail":"Latest recorded flow is 0.95 times the historical baseline."},{"id":"maritime-advisories","label":"Official maritime advisories","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"Current MARAD advisory evidence is unavailable, so WorldPredicta is not treating silence as proof that the route is risk-free."},{"id":"data-freshness","label":"Data freshness","state":"observed","score":85,"detail":"The latest traffic observation is approximately 8.4 days old."},{"id":"congestion","label":"Congestion","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"security-exposure","label":"Security exposure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"conflict-exposure","label":"Conflict exposure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"port-closures","label":"Port or passage closures","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"weather","label":"Weather disruption","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance or freight pressure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"corroborated-news","label":"Recent corroborated news","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"source-agreement","label":"Independent source agreement","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."}],"supportingEvidence":["Recorded seven-day traffic deviation: -13.3%.","Normal comparison baseline: 66.0 recorded transits.","Current seven-day average: 53.1 recorded transits."],"contradictingEvidence":[],"whatCouldHappenNext":["If the deviation persists, pressure may spread through black sea grain, fuel and bulk cargo.","A short-lived change may reverse without becoming a sustained disruption."],"whatCouldImproveIt":["Recorded traffic returns toward its comparison range.","Current restrictions or advisories are withdrawn.","Independent verified sources show normal passage."],"whatCouldWorsenIt":["Recorded transit declines move farther from the comparison range.","A verified closure, restriction, attack, or port disruption is reported.","Verified freight or insurance pressure rises materially."],"unknowns":["Current traffic data alone does not establish why individual vessels changed route or timing.","Congestion, conflict, weather, port closure, insurance, and freight components are not yet measured in this beta score.","A current stress score is not a forecast of fuel or household prices."],"advisories":[],"history":[{"date":"2026-08-10","total":63},{"date":"2026-08-11","total":66},{"date":"2026-08-12","total":76},{"date":"2026-08-13","total":48},{"date":"2026-08-14","total":51},{"date":"2026-08-15","total":43},{"date":"2026-08-16","total":38},{"date":"2026-08-17","total":81},{"date":"2026-08-18","total":68},{"date":"2026-08-19","total":67},{"date":"2026-08-20","total":55},{"date":"2026-08-21","total":73},{"date":"2026-08-22","total":72},{"date":"2026-08-23","total":67},{"date":"2026-08-24","total":69},{"date":"2026-08-25","total":47},{"date":"2026-08-26","total":72},{"date":"2026-08-27","total":67},{"date":"2026-08-28","total":57},{"date":"2026-08-29","total":60},{"date":"2026-08-30","total":47},{"date":"2026-08-31","total":49},{"date":"2026-09-01","total":39},{"date":"2026-09-02","total":57},{"date":"2026-09-03","total":49},{"date":"2026-09-04","total":63},{"date":"2026-09-05","total":52},{"date":"2026-09-06","total":63}]},{"id":"chokepoint4","name":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait","latitude":12.7886,"longitude":43.3495,"stress":3,"status":"normal","currentStress":3,"currentStatus":"normal","recordedStress":3,"recordedStatus":"normal","confidence":"low-to-moderate","dataQuality":"usable","freshness":"latest-available","observedAt":"2026-09-06","dataAgeDays":8.4,"scoreMovement":"not-yet-measured","scoreMethod":"traffic-deviation-beta","baseline":29,"sevenDayAverage":25.4,"currentDeviationPct":-10.4,"recordedDeviationPct":-10.4,"latestRecordedTransits":23,"exposure":94,"commoditiesAndChannels":"Red Sea access, oil and Asia–Europe shipping","householdImplications":"Fuel, insurance and imported-goods prices","components":[{"id":"traffic-deviation","label":"Traffic deviation","state":"observed","score":3,"detail":"The recorded seven-day average is 10.4% below the prior comparison period."},{"id":"flow-ratio","label":"Latest flow versus baseline","state":"observed","score":21,"detail":"Latest recorded flow is 0.79 times the historical baseline."},{"id":"maritime-advisories","label":"Official maritime advisories","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"Current MARAD advisory evidence is unavailable, so WorldPredicta is not treating silence as proof that the route is risk-free."},{"id":"data-freshness","label":"Data freshness","state":"observed","score":85,"detail":"The latest traffic observation is approximately 8.4 days old."},{"id":"congestion","label":"Congestion","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"security-exposure","label":"Security exposure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"conflict-exposure","label":"Conflict exposure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"port-closures","label":"Port or passage closures","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"weather","label":"Weather disruption","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance or freight pressure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"corroborated-news","label":"Recent corroborated news","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"source-agreement","label":"Independent source agreement","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."}],"supportingEvidence":["Recorded seven-day traffic deviation: -10.4%.","Normal comparison baseline: 29.0 recorded transits.","Current seven-day average: 25.4 recorded transits."],"contradictingEvidence":[],"whatCouldHappenNext":["If the deviation persists, pressure may spread through red sea access, oil and asia–europe shipping.","A short-lived change may reverse without becoming a sustained disruption."],"whatCouldImproveIt":["Recorded traffic returns toward its comparison range.","Current restrictions or advisories are withdrawn.","Independent verified sources show normal passage."],"whatCouldWorsenIt":["Recorded transit declines move farther from the comparison range.","A verified closure, restriction, attack, or port disruption is reported.","Verified freight or insurance pressure rises materially."],"unknowns":["Current traffic data alone does not establish why individual vessels changed route or timing.","Congestion, conflict, weather, port closure, insurance, and freight components are not yet measured in this beta score.","A current stress score is not a forecast of fuel or household prices."],"advisories":[],"history":[{"date":"2026-08-10","total":29},{"date":"2026-08-11","total":25},{"date":"2026-08-12","total":25},{"date":"2026-08-13","total":20},{"date":"2026-08-14","total":31},{"date":"2026-08-15","total":40},{"date":"2026-08-16","total":36},{"date":"2026-08-17","total":29},{"date":"2026-08-18","total":32},{"date":"2026-08-19","total":33},{"date":"2026-08-20","total":29},{"date":"2026-08-21","total":21},{"date":"2026-08-22","total":33},{"date":"2026-08-23","total":29},{"date":"2026-08-24","total":36},{"date":"2026-08-25","total":25},{"date":"2026-08-26","total":26},{"date":"2026-08-27","total":21},{"date":"2026-08-28","total":27},{"date":"2026-08-29","total":20},{"date":"2026-08-30","total":29},{"date":"2026-08-31","total":24},{"date":"2026-09-01","total":19},{"date":"2026-09-02","total":38},{"date":"2026-09-03","total":24},{"date":"2026-09-04","total":32},{"date":"2026-09-05","total":18},{"date":"2026-09-06","total":23}]},{"id":"chokepoint8","name":"Gibraltar Strait","latitude":35.9423,"longitude":-5.7549,"stress":3,"status":"normal","currentStress":3,"currentStatus":"normal","recordedStress":3,"recordedStatus":"normal","confidence":"low-to-moderate","dataQuality":"usable","freshness":"latest-available","observedAt":"2026-09-06","dataAgeDays":8.4,"scoreMovement":"not-yet-measured","scoreMethod":"traffic-deviation-beta","baseline":125,"sevenDayAverage":139.3,"currentDeviationPct":9.8,"recordedDeviationPct":9.8,"latestRecordedTransits":142,"exposure":76,"commoditiesAndChannels":"Atlantic–Mediterranean energy and trade","householdImplications":"European fuel and imported-goods availability","components":[{"id":"traffic-deviation","label":"Traffic deviation","state":"observed","score":3,"detail":"The recorded seven-day average is 9.8% above the prior comparison period."},{"id":"flow-ratio","label":"Latest flow versus baseline","state":"observed","score":14,"detail":"Latest recorded flow is 1.14 times the historical baseline."},{"id":"maritime-advisories","label":"Official maritime advisories","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"Current MARAD advisory evidence is unavailable, so WorldPredicta is not treating silence as proof that the route is risk-free."},{"id":"data-freshness","label":"Data freshness","state":"observed","score":85,"detail":"The latest traffic observation is approximately 8.4 days old."},{"id":"congestion","label":"Congestion","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"security-exposure","label":"Security exposure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"conflict-exposure","label":"Conflict exposure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"port-closures","label":"Port or passage closures","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"weather","label":"Weather disruption","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance or freight pressure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"corroborated-news","label":"Recent corroborated news","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"source-agreement","label":"Independent source agreement","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."}],"supportingEvidence":["Recorded seven-day traffic deviation: 9.8%.","Normal comparison baseline: 125.0 recorded transits.","Current seven-day average: 139.3 recorded transits."],"contradictingEvidence":["Recorded traffic remains close to its prior comparison range."],"whatCouldHappenNext":["If the deviation persists, pressure may spread through atlantic–mediterranean energy and trade.","A short-lived change may reverse without becoming a sustained disruption."],"whatCouldImproveIt":["Recorded traffic returns toward its comparison range.","Current restrictions or advisories are withdrawn.","Independent verified sources show normal passage."],"whatCouldWorsenIt":["Recorded transit declines move farther from the comparison range.","A verified closure, restriction, attack, or port disruption is reported.","Verified freight or insurance pressure rises materially."],"unknowns":["Current traffic data alone does not establish why individual vessels changed route or timing.","Congestion, conflict, weather, port closure, insurance, and freight components are not yet measured in this beta score.","A current stress score is not a forecast of fuel or household prices."],"advisories":[],"history":[{"date":"2026-08-10","total":118},{"date":"2026-08-11","total":129},{"date":"2026-08-12","total":136},{"date":"2026-08-13","total":138},{"date":"2026-08-14","total":125},{"date":"2026-08-15","total":120},{"date":"2026-08-16","total":150},{"date":"2026-08-17","total":130},{"date":"2026-08-18","total":121},{"date":"2026-08-19","total":123},{"date":"2026-08-20","total":128},{"date":"2026-08-21","total":118},{"date":"2026-08-22","total":124},{"date":"2026-08-23","total":119},{"date":"2026-08-24","total":134},{"date":"2026-08-25","total":126},{"date":"2026-08-26","total":123},{"date":"2026-08-27","total":120},{"date":"2026-08-28","total":127},{"date":"2026-08-29","total":133},{"date":"2026-08-30","total":123},{"date":"2026-08-31","total":135},{"date":"2026-09-01","total":140},{"date":"2026-09-02","total":146},{"date":"2026-09-03","total":129},{"date":"2026-09-04","total":139},{"date":"2026-09-05","total":144},{"date":"2026-09-06","total":142}]},{"id":"chokepoint9","name":"Dover Strait","latitude":51.0302,"longitude":1.5058,"stress":0,"status":"normal","currentStress":0,"currentStatus":"normal","recordedStress":0,"recordedStatus":"normal","confidence":"low-to-moderate","dataQuality":"usable","freshness":"latest-available","observedAt":"2026-09-06","dataAgeDays":8.4,"scoreMovement":"not-yet-measured","scoreMethod":"traffic-deviation-beta","baseline":154,"sevenDayAverage":159.1,"currentDeviationPct":3.9,"recordedDeviationPct":3.9,"latestRecordedTransits":180,"exposure":72,"commoditiesAndChannels":"Northern European short-sea freight","householdImplications":"Groceries, parcels and regional delivery times","components":[{"id":"traffic-deviation","label":"Traffic deviation","state":"observed","score":0,"detail":"The recorded seven-day average is 3.9% above the prior comparison period."},{"id":"flow-ratio","label":"Latest flow versus baseline","state":"observed","score":17,"detail":"Latest recorded flow is 1.17 times the historical baseline."},{"id":"maritime-advisories","label":"Official maritime advisories","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"Current MARAD advisory evidence is unavailable, so WorldPredicta is not treating silence as proof that the route is risk-free."},{"id":"data-freshness","label":"Data freshness","state":"observed","score":85,"detail":"The latest traffic observation is approximately 8.4 days old."},{"id":"congestion","label":"Congestion","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"security-exposure","label":"Security exposure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"conflict-exposure","label":"Conflict exposure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"port-closures","label":"Port or passage closures","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"weather","label":"Weather disruption","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance or freight pressure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"corroborated-news","label":"Recent corroborated news","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"source-agreement","label":"Independent source agreement","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."}],"supportingEvidence":["Recorded seven-day traffic deviation: 3.9%.","Normal comparison baseline: 154.0 recorded transits.","Current seven-day average: 159.1 recorded transits."],"contradictingEvidence":["Recorded traffic remains close to its prior comparison range."],"whatCouldHappenNext":["If the deviation persists, pressure may spread through northern european short-sea freight.","A short-lived change may reverse without becoming a sustained disruption."],"whatCouldImproveIt":["Recorded traffic returns toward its comparison range.","Current restrictions or advisories are withdrawn.","Independent verified sources show normal passage."],"whatCouldWorsenIt":["Recorded transit declines move farther from the comparison range.","A verified closure, restriction, attack, or port disruption is reported.","Verified freight or insurance pressure rises materially."],"unknowns":["Current traffic data alone does not establish why individual vessels changed route or timing.","Congestion, conflict, weather, port closure, insurance, and freight components are not yet measured in this beta score.","A current stress score is not a forecast of fuel or household prices."],"advisories":[],"history":[{"date":"2026-08-10","total":135},{"date":"2026-08-11","total":155},{"date":"2026-08-12","total":140},{"date":"2026-08-13","total":157},{"date":"2026-08-14","total":155},{"date":"2026-08-15","total":181},{"date":"2026-08-16","total":158},{"date":"2026-08-17","total":144},{"date":"2026-08-18","total":130},{"date":"2026-08-19","total":160},{"date":"2026-08-20","total":127},{"date":"2026-08-21","total":150},{"date":"2026-08-22","total":178},{"date":"2026-08-23","total":154},{"date":"2026-08-24","total":152},{"date":"2026-08-25","total":147},{"date":"2026-08-26","total":158},{"date":"2026-08-27","total":171},{"date":"2026-08-28","total":165},{"date":"2026-08-29","total":152},{"date":"2026-08-30","total":147},{"date":"2026-08-31","total":126},{"date":"2026-09-01","total":172},{"date":"2026-09-02","total":146},{"date":"2026-09-03","total":155},{"date":"2026-09-04","total":142},{"date":"2026-09-05","total":193},{"date":"2026-09-06","total":180}]},{"id":"chokepoint28","name":"Kerch Strait","latitude":45.2668,"longitude":36.5439,"stress":null,"status":"unknown","currentStress":null,"currentStatus":"unknown","recordedStress":0,"recordedStatus":"normal","confidence":"low","dataQuality":"insufficient-volume","freshness":"latest-available","observedAt":"2026-09-06","dataAgeDays":8.4,"scoreMovement":"not-yet-measured","scoreMethod":"traffic-deviation-beta","baseline":0,"sevenDayAverage":0.1,"currentDeviationPct":null,"recordedDeviationPct":null,"latestRecordedTransits":0,"exposure":84,"commoditiesAndChannels":"Black Sea grain and regional logistics","householdImplications":"Grain, cooking oil and food inflation","components":[{"id":"traffic-deviation","label":"Traffic deviation","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"The traffic baseline is missing or below five daily transits, so a percentage change cannot support a disruption label."},{"id":"flow-ratio","label":"Latest flow versus baseline","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"No baseline ratio is available."},{"id":"maritime-advisories","label":"Official maritime advisories","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"Current MARAD advisory evidence is unavailable, so WorldPredicta is not treating silence as proof that the route is risk-free."},{"id":"data-freshness","label":"Data freshness","state":"observed","score":85,"detail":"The latest traffic observation is approximately 8.4 days old."},{"id":"congestion","label":"Congestion","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"security-exposure","label":"Security exposure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"conflict-exposure","label":"Conflict exposure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"port-closures","label":"Port or passage closures","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"weather","label":"Weather disruption","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance or freight pressure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"corroborated-news","label":"Recent corroborated news","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"source-agreement","label":"Independent source agreement","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."}],"supportingEvidence":["Normal comparison baseline: 0.0 recorded transits.","Current seven-day average: 0.1 recorded transits."],"contradictingEvidence":[],"whatCouldHappenNext":["If the deviation persists, pressure may spread through black sea grain and regional logistics.","A short-lived change may reverse without becoming a sustained disruption."],"whatCouldImproveIt":["Recorded traffic returns toward its comparison range.","Current restrictions or advisories are withdrawn.","Independent verified sources show normal passage."],"whatCouldWorsenIt":["Recorded transit declines move farther from the comparison range.","A verified closure, restriction, attack, or port disruption is reported.","Verified freight or insurance pressure rises materially."],"unknowns":["The comparison baseline is missing or below five recorded daily transits, so the percentage change is withheld as insufficient-volume data.","Congestion, conflict, weather, port closure, insurance, and freight components are not yet measured in this beta score.","A current stress score is not a forecast of fuel or household prices."],"advisories":[],"history":[{"date":"2026-08-10","total":1},{"date":"2026-08-11","total":0},{"date":"2026-08-12","total":0},{"date":"2026-08-13","total":0},{"date":"2026-08-14","total":1},{"date":"2026-08-15","total":0},{"date":"2026-08-16","total":0},{"date":"2026-08-17","total":0},{"date":"2026-08-18","total":0},{"date":"2026-08-19","total":0},{"date":"2026-08-20","total":0},{"date":"2026-08-21","total":0},{"date":"2026-08-22","total":1},{"date":"2026-08-23","total":0},{"date":"2026-08-24","total":0},{"date":"2026-08-25","total":0},{"date":"2026-08-26","total":0},{"date":"2026-08-27","total":0},{"date":"2026-08-28","total":0},{"date":"2026-08-29","total":0},{"date":"2026-08-30","total":0},{"date":"2026-08-31","total":0},{"date":"2026-09-01","total":0},{"date":"2026-09-02","total":1},{"date":"2026-09-03","total":0},{"date":"2026-09-04","total":0},{"date":"2026-09-05","total":0},{"date":"2026-09-06","total":0}]},{"id":"chokepoint12","name":"Korea Strait","latitude":34.1308,"longitude":129.2092,"stress":0,"status":"normal","currentStress":0,"currentStatus":"normal","recordedStress":0,"recordedStatus":"normal","confidence":"low-to-moderate","dataQuality":"usable","freshness":"latest-available","observedAt":"2026-09-06","dataAgeDays":8.4,"scoreMovement":"not-yet-measured","scoreMethod":"traffic-deviation-beta","baseline":210,"sevenDayAverage":199.6,"currentDeviationPct":-4.9,"recordedDeviationPct":-4.9,"latestRecordedTransits":188,"exposure":82,"commoditiesAndChannels":"Autos, chips, batteries and refined products","householdImplications":"Vehicles, electronics and battery supply","components":[{"id":"traffic-deviation","label":"Traffic deviation","state":"observed","score":0,"detail":"The recorded seven-day average is 4.9% below the prior comparison period."},{"id":"flow-ratio","label":"Latest flow versus baseline","state":"observed","score":10,"detail":"Latest recorded flow is 0.90 times the historical baseline."},{"id":"maritime-advisories","label":"Official maritime advisories","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"Current MARAD advisory evidence is unavailable, so WorldPredicta is not treating silence as proof that the route is risk-free."},{"id":"data-freshness","label":"Data freshness","state":"observed","score":85,"detail":"The latest traffic observation is approximately 8.4 days old."},{"id":"congestion","label":"Congestion","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"security-exposure","label":"Security exposure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"conflict-exposure","label":"Conflict exposure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"port-closures","label":"Port or passage closures","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"weather","label":"Weather disruption","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance or freight pressure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"corroborated-news","label":"Recent corroborated news","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"source-agreement","label":"Independent source agreement","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."}],"supportingEvidence":["Recorded seven-day traffic deviation: -4.9%.","Normal comparison baseline: 210.0 recorded transits.","Current seven-day average: 199.6 recorded transits."],"contradictingEvidence":["Recorded traffic remains close to its prior comparison range."],"whatCouldHappenNext":["If the deviation persists, pressure may spread through autos, chips, batteries and refined products.","A short-lived change may reverse without becoming a sustained disruption."],"whatCouldImproveIt":["Recorded traffic returns toward its comparison range.","Current restrictions or advisories are withdrawn.","Independent verified sources show normal passage."],"whatCouldWorsenIt":["Recorded transit declines move farther from the comparison range.","A verified closure, restriction, attack, or port disruption is reported.","Verified freight or insurance pressure rises materially."],"unknowns":["Current traffic data alone does not establish why individual vessels changed route or timing.","Congestion, conflict, weather, port closure, insurance, and freight components are not yet measured in this beta score.","A current stress score is not a forecast of fuel or household prices."],"advisories":[],"history":[{"date":"2026-08-10","total":202},{"date":"2026-08-11","total":182},{"date":"2026-08-12","total":210},{"date":"2026-08-13","total":217},{"date":"2026-08-14","total":191},{"date":"2026-08-15","total":205},{"date":"2026-08-16","total":179},{"date":"2026-08-17","total":190},{"date":"2026-08-18","total":236},{"date":"2026-08-19","total":213},{"date":"2026-08-20","total":216},{"date":"2026-08-21","total":197},{"date":"2026-08-22","total":204},{"date":"2026-08-23","total":201},{"date":"2026-08-24","total":223},{"date":"2026-08-25","total":248},{"date":"2026-08-26","total":232},{"date":"2026-08-27","total":216},{"date":"2026-08-28","total":207},{"date":"2026-08-29","total":216},{"date":"2026-08-30","total":221},{"date":"2026-08-31","total":193},{"date":"2026-09-01","total":247},{"date":"2026-09-02","total":233},{"date":"2026-09-03","total":215},{"date":"2026-09-04","total":152},{"date":"2026-09-05","total":169},{"date":"2026-09-06","total":188}]},{"id":"chokepoint15","name":"Lombok Strait","latitude":-8.4191,"longitude":115.8014,"stress":0,"status":"normal","currentStress":0,"currentStatus":"normal","recordedStress":0,"recordedStatus":"normal","confidence":"low-to-moderate","dataQuality":"usable","freshness":"latest-available","observedAt":"2026-09-06","dataAgeDays":8.4,"scoreMovement":"not-yet-measured","scoreMethod":"traffic-deviation-beta","baseline":37,"sevenDayAverage":34.9,"currentDeviationPct":-0.8,"recordedDeviationPct":-0.8,"latestRecordedTransits":36,"exposure":68,"commoditiesAndChannels":"Malacca bypass for tankers and bulk ships","householdImplications":"Fuel and industrial-material shipping costs","components":[{"id":"traffic-deviation","label":"Traffic deviation","state":"observed","score":0,"detail":"The recorded seven-day average is 0.8% below the prior comparison period."},{"id":"flow-ratio","label":"Latest flow versus baseline","state":"observed","score":3,"detail":"Latest recorded flow is 0.97 times the historical baseline."},{"id":"maritime-advisories","label":"Official maritime advisories","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"Current MARAD advisory evidence is unavailable, so WorldPredicta is not treating silence as proof that the route is risk-free."},{"id":"data-freshness","label":"Data freshness","state":"observed","score":85,"detail":"The latest traffic observation is approximately 8.4 days old."},{"id":"congestion","label":"Congestion","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"security-exposure","label":"Security exposure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"conflict-exposure","label":"Conflict exposure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"port-closures","label":"Port or passage closures","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"weather","label":"Weather disruption","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance or freight pressure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"corroborated-news","label":"Recent corroborated news","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"source-agreement","label":"Independent source agreement","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."}],"supportingEvidence":["Recorded seven-day traffic deviation: -0.8%.","Normal comparison baseline: 37.0 recorded transits.","Current seven-day average: 34.9 recorded transits."],"contradictingEvidence":["Recorded traffic remains close to its prior comparison range."],"whatCouldHappenNext":["If the deviation persists, pressure may spread through malacca bypass for tankers and bulk ships.","A short-lived change may reverse without becoming a sustained disruption."],"whatCouldImproveIt":["Recorded traffic returns toward its comparison range.","Current restrictions or advisories are withdrawn.","Independent verified sources show normal passage."],"whatCouldWorsenIt":["Recorded transit declines move farther from the comparison range.","A verified closure, restriction, attack, or port disruption is reported.","Verified freight or insurance pressure rises materially."],"unknowns":["Current traffic data alone does not establish why individual vessels changed route or timing.","Congestion, conflict, weather, port closure, insurance, and freight components are not yet measured in this beta score.","A current stress score is not a forecast of fuel or household prices."],"advisories":[],"history":[{"date":"2026-08-10","total":29},{"date":"2026-08-11","total":45},{"date":"2026-08-12","total":36},{"date":"2026-08-13","total":38},{"date":"2026-08-14","total":31},{"date":"2026-08-15","total":42},{"date":"2026-08-16","total":27},{"date":"2026-08-17","total":25},{"date":"2026-08-18","total":25},{"date":"2026-08-19","total":37},{"date":"2026-08-20","total":43},{"date":"2026-08-21","total":28},{"date":"2026-08-22","total":31},{"date":"2026-08-23","total":39},{"date":"2026-08-24","total":38},{"date":"2026-08-25","total":40},{"date":"2026-08-26","total":31},{"date":"2026-08-27","total":42},{"date":"2026-08-28","total":37},{"date":"2026-08-29","total":36},{"date":"2026-08-30","total":38},{"date":"2026-08-31","total":31},{"date":"2026-09-01","total":33},{"date":"2026-09-02","total":36},{"date":"2026-09-03","total":39},{"date":"2026-09-04","total":30},{"date":"2026-09-05","total":39},{"date":"2026-09-06","total":36}]},{"id":"chokepoint5","name":"Malacca Strait","latitude":1.517,"longitude":102.6651,"stress":0,"status":"normal","currentStress":0,"currentStatus":"normal","recordedStress":0,"recordedStatus":"normal","confidence":"low-to-moderate","dataQuality":"usable","freshness":"latest-available","observedAt":"2026-09-06","dataAgeDays":8.4,"scoreMovement":"not-yet-measured","scoreMethod":"traffic-deviation-beta","baseline":203,"sevenDayAverage":206,"currentDeviationPct":-0.6,"recordedDeviationPct":-0.6,"latestRecordedTransits":196,"exposure":98,"commoditiesAndChannels":"Asian manufacturing, oil and containers","householdImplications":"Electronics, fuel and everyday imported goods","components":[{"id":"traffic-deviation","label":"Traffic deviation","state":"observed","score":0,"detail":"The recorded seven-day average is 0.6% below the prior comparison period."},{"id":"flow-ratio","label":"Latest flow versus baseline","state":"observed","score":3,"detail":"Latest recorded flow is 0.97 times the historical baseline."},{"id":"maritime-advisories","label":"Official maritime advisories","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"Current MARAD advisory evidence is unavailable, so WorldPredicta is not treating silence as proof that the route is risk-free."},{"id":"data-freshness","label":"Data freshness","state":"observed","score":85,"detail":"The latest traffic observation is approximately 8.4 days old."},{"id":"congestion","label":"Congestion","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"security-exposure","label":"Security exposure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"conflict-exposure","label":"Conflict exposure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"port-closures","label":"Port or passage closures","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"weather","label":"Weather disruption","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance or freight pressure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"corroborated-news","label":"Recent corroborated news","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"source-agreement","label":"Independent source agreement","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."}],"supportingEvidence":["Recorded seven-day traffic deviation: -0.6%.","Normal comparison baseline: 203.0 recorded transits.","Current seven-day average: 206.0 recorded transits."],"contradictingEvidence":["Recorded traffic remains close to its prior comparison range."],"whatCouldHappenNext":["If the deviation persists, pressure may spread through asian manufacturing, oil and containers.","A short-lived change may reverse without becoming a sustained disruption."],"whatCouldImproveIt":["Recorded traffic returns toward its comparison range.","Current restrictions or advisories are withdrawn.","Independent verified sources show normal passage."],"whatCouldWorsenIt":["Recorded transit declines move farther from the comparison range.","A verified closure, restriction, attack, or port disruption is reported.","Verified freight or insurance pressure rises materially."],"unknowns":["Current traffic data alone does not establish why individual vessels changed route or timing.","Congestion, conflict, weather, port closure, insurance, and freight components are not yet measured in this beta score.","A current stress score is not a forecast of fuel or household prices."],"advisories":[],"history":[{"date":"2026-08-10","total":223},{"date":"2026-08-11","total":229},{"date":"2026-08-12","total":241},{"date":"2026-08-13","total":222},{"date":"2026-08-14","total":212},{"date":"2026-08-15","total":195},{"date":"2026-08-16","total":178},{"date":"2026-08-17","total":187},{"date":"2026-08-18","total":196},{"date":"2026-08-19","total":203},{"date":"2026-08-20","total":203},{"date":"2026-08-21","total":232},{"date":"2026-08-22","total":213},{"date":"2026-08-23","total":192},{"date":"2026-08-24","total":209},{"date":"2026-08-25","total":195},{"date":"2026-08-26","total":202},{"date":"2026-08-27","total":191},{"date":"2026-08-28","total":202},{"date":"2026-08-29","total":206},{"date":"2026-08-30","total":219},{"date":"2026-08-31","total":223},{"date":"2026-09-01","total":209},{"date":"2026-09-02","total":204},{"date":"2026-09-03","total":237},{"date":"2026-09-04","total":183},{"date":"2026-09-05","total":190},{"date":"2026-09-06","total":196}]},{"id":"chokepoint2","name":"Panama Canal","latitude":9.1205,"longitude":-79.7672,"stress":0,"status":"normal","currentStress":0,"currentStatus":"normal","recordedStress":0,"recordedStatus":"normal","confidence":"low-to-moderate","dataQuality":"usable","freshness":"latest-available","observedAt":"2026-09-06","dataAgeDays":8.4,"scoreMovement":"not-yet-measured","scoreMethod":"traffic-deviation-beta","baseline":29,"sevenDayAverage":30,"currentDeviationPct":5.2,"recordedDeviationPct":5.2,"latestRecordedTransits":26,"exposure":86,"commoditiesAndChannels":"Americas trade, grains and container freight","householdImplications":"Food exports and coast-to-coast shipping costs","components":[{"id":"traffic-deviation","label":"Traffic deviation","state":"observed","score":0,"detail":"The recorded seven-day average is 5.2% above the prior comparison period."},{"id":"flow-ratio","label":"Latest flow versus baseline","state":"observed","score":10,"detail":"Latest recorded flow is 0.90 times the historical baseline."},{"id":"maritime-advisories","label":"Official maritime advisories","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"Current MARAD advisory evidence is unavailable, so WorldPredicta is not treating silence as proof that the route is risk-free."},{"id":"data-freshness","label":"Data freshness","state":"observed","score":85,"detail":"The latest traffic observation is approximately 8.4 days old."},{"id":"congestion","label":"Congestion","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"security-exposure","label":"Security exposure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"conflict-exposure","label":"Conflict exposure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"port-closures","label":"Port or passage closures","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"weather","label":"Weather disruption","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance or freight pressure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"corroborated-news","label":"Recent corroborated news","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"source-agreement","label":"Independent source agreement","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."}],"supportingEvidence":["Recorded seven-day traffic deviation: 5.2%.","Normal comparison baseline: 29.0 recorded transits.","Current seven-day average: 30.0 recorded transits."],"contradictingEvidence":["Recorded traffic remains close to its prior comparison range."],"whatCouldHappenNext":["If the deviation persists, pressure may spread through americas trade, grains and container freight.","A short-lived change may reverse without becoming a sustained disruption."],"whatCouldImproveIt":["Recorded traffic returns toward its comparison range.","Current restrictions or advisories are withdrawn.","Independent verified sources show normal passage."],"whatCouldWorsenIt":["Recorded transit declines move farther from the comparison range.","A verified closure, restriction, attack, or port disruption is reported.","Verified freight or insurance pressure rises materially."],"unknowns":["Current traffic data alone does not establish why individual vessels changed route or timing.","Congestion, conflict, weather, port closure, insurance, and freight components are not yet measured in this beta score.","A current stress score is not a forecast of fuel or household prices."],"advisories":[],"history":[{"date":"2026-08-10","total":26},{"date":"2026-08-11","total":30},{"date":"2026-08-12","total":29},{"date":"2026-08-13","total":28},{"date":"2026-08-14","total":31},{"date":"2026-08-15","total":31},{"date":"2026-08-16","total":33},{"date":"2026-08-17","total":23},{"date":"2026-08-18","total":27},{"date":"2026-08-19","total":31},{"date":"2026-08-20","total":27},{"date":"2026-08-21","total":26},{"date":"2026-08-22","total":25},{"date":"2026-08-23","total":28},{"date":"2026-08-24","total":30},{"date":"2026-08-25","total":25},{"date":"2026-08-26","total":28},{"date":"2026-08-27","total":31},{"date":"2026-08-28","total":29},{"date":"2026-08-29","total":30},{"date":"2026-08-30","total":31},{"date":"2026-08-31","total":29},{"date":"2026-09-01","total":31},{"date":"2026-09-02","total":30},{"date":"2026-09-03","total":30},{"date":"2026-09-04","total":30},{"date":"2026-09-05","total":34},{"date":"2026-09-06","total":26}]},{"id":"chokepoint6","name":"Strait of Hormuz","latitude":26.2969,"longitude":56.8598,"stress":null,"status":"unknown","currentStress":null,"currentStatus":"unknown","recordedStress":0,"recordedStatus":"normal","confidence":"low","dataQuality":"insufficient-volume","freshness":"latest-available","observedAt":"2026-09-06","dataAgeDays":8.4,"scoreMovement":"not-yet-measured","scoreMethod":"traffic-deviation-beta","baseline":4,"sevenDayAverage":3.1,"currentDeviationPct":null,"recordedDeviationPct":null,"latestRecordedTransits":6,"exposure":100,"commoditiesAndChannels":"Crude oil, LNG, tanker rates and inflation","householdImplications":"Gasoline, electricity and transportation costs","components":[{"id":"traffic-deviation","label":"Traffic deviation","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"The traffic baseline is missing or below five daily transits, so a percentage change cannot support a disruption label."},{"id":"flow-ratio","label":"Latest flow versus baseline","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"No baseline ratio is available."},{"id":"maritime-advisories","label":"Official maritime advisories","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"Current MARAD advisory evidence is unavailable, so WorldPredicta is not treating silence as proof that the route is risk-free."},{"id":"data-freshness","label":"Data freshness","state":"observed","score":85,"detail":"The latest traffic observation is approximately 8.4 days old."},{"id":"congestion","label":"Congestion","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"security-exposure","label":"Security exposure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"conflict-exposure","label":"Conflict exposure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"port-closures","label":"Port or passage closures","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"weather","label":"Weather disruption","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance or freight pressure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"corroborated-news","label":"Recent corroborated news","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"source-agreement","label":"Independent source agreement","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."}],"supportingEvidence":["Normal comparison baseline: 4.0 recorded transits.","Current seven-day average: 3.1 recorded transits."],"contradictingEvidence":[],"whatCouldHappenNext":["If the deviation persists, pressure may spread through crude oil, lng, tanker rates and inflation.","A short-lived change may reverse without becoming a sustained disruption."],"whatCouldImproveIt":["Recorded traffic returns toward its comparison range.","Current restrictions or advisories are withdrawn.","Independent verified sources show normal passage."],"whatCouldWorsenIt":["Recorded transit declines move farther from the comparison range.","A verified closure, restriction, attack, or port disruption is reported.","Verified freight or insurance pressure rises materially."],"unknowns":["The comparison baseline is missing or below five recorded daily transits, so the percentage change is withheld as insufficient-volume data.","Congestion, conflict, weather, port closure, insurance, and freight components are not yet measured in this beta score.","A current stress score is not a forecast of fuel or household prices."],"advisories":[],"history":[{"date":"2026-08-10","total":4},{"date":"2026-08-11","total":9},{"date":"2026-08-12","total":3},{"date":"2026-08-13","total":6},{"date":"2026-08-14","total":7},{"date":"2026-08-15","total":1},{"date":"2026-08-16","total":1},{"date":"2026-08-17","total":4},{"date":"2026-08-18","total":6},{"date":"2026-08-19","total":6},{"date":"2026-08-20","total":5},{"date":"2026-08-21","total":4},{"date":"2026-08-22","total":7},{"date":"2026-08-23","total":3},{"date":"2026-08-24","total":3},{"date":"2026-08-25","total":4},{"date":"2026-08-26","total":5},{"date":"2026-08-27","total":2},{"date":"2026-08-28","total":7},{"date":"2026-08-29","total":3},{"date":"2026-08-30","total":6},{"date":"2026-08-31","total":3},{"date":"2026-09-01","total":4},{"date":"2026-09-02","total":3},{"date":"2026-09-03","total":2},{"date":"2026-09-04","total":2},{"date":"2026-09-05","total":2},{"date":"2026-09-06","total":6}]},{"id":"chokepoint1","name":"Suez Canal","latitude":30.5933,"longitude":32.4369,"stress":0,"status":"normal","currentStress":0,"currentStatus":"normal","recordedStress":0,"recordedStatus":"normal","confidence":"low-to-moderate","dataQuality":"usable","freshness":"latest-available","observedAt":"2026-09-06","dataAgeDays":8.4,"scoreMovement":"not-yet-measured","scoreMethod":"traffic-deviation-beta","baseline":40,"sevenDayAverage":41.6,"currentDeviationPct":-0.9,"recordedDeviationPct":-0.9,"latestRecordedTransits":30,"exposure":96,"commoditiesAndChannels":"Europe–Asia goods, oil and freight","householdImplications":"Delivery times and prices for imported goods","components":[{"id":"traffic-deviation","label":"Traffic deviation","state":"observed","score":0,"detail":"The recorded seven-day average is 0.9% below the prior comparison period."},{"id":"flow-ratio","label":"Latest flow versus baseline","state":"observed","score":25,"detail":"Latest recorded flow is 0.75 times the historical baseline."},{"id":"maritime-advisories","label":"Official maritime advisories","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"Current MARAD advisory evidence is unavailable, so WorldPredicta is not treating silence as proof that the route is risk-free."},{"id":"data-freshness","label":"Data freshness","state":"observed","score":85,"detail":"The latest traffic observation is approximately 8.4 days old."},{"id":"congestion","label":"Congestion","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"security-exposure","label":"Security exposure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"conflict-exposure","label":"Conflict exposure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"port-closures","label":"Port or passage closures","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"weather","label":"Weather disruption","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance or freight pressure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"corroborated-news","label":"Recent corroborated news","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"source-agreement","label":"Independent source agreement","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."}],"supportingEvidence":["Recorded seven-day traffic deviation: -0.9%.","Normal comparison baseline: 40.0 recorded transits.","Current seven-day average: 41.6 recorded transits."],"contradictingEvidence":["Recorded traffic remains close to its prior comparison range."],"whatCouldHappenNext":["If the deviation persists, pressure may spread through europe–asia goods, oil and freight.","A short-lived change may reverse without becoming a sustained disruption."],"whatCouldImproveIt":["Recorded traffic returns toward its comparison range.","Current restrictions or advisories are withdrawn.","Independent verified sources show normal passage."],"whatCouldWorsenIt":["Recorded transit declines move farther from the comparison range.","A verified closure, restriction, attack, or port disruption is reported.","Verified freight or insurance pressure rises materially."],"unknowns":["Current traffic data alone does not establish why individual vessels changed route or timing.","Congestion, conflict, weather, port closure, insurance, and freight components are not yet measured in this beta score.","A current stress score is not a forecast of fuel or household prices."],"advisories":[],"history":[{"date":"2026-08-10","total":43},{"date":"2026-08-11","total":57},{"date":"2026-08-12","total":27},{"date":"2026-08-13","total":40},{"date":"2026-08-14","total":39},{"date":"2026-08-15","total":39},{"date":"2026-08-16","total":41},{"date":"2026-08-17","total":46},{"date":"2026-08-18","total":39},{"date":"2026-08-19","total":45},{"date":"2026-08-20","total":33},{"date":"2026-08-21","total":55},{"date":"2026-08-22","total":39},{"date":"2026-08-23","total":37},{"date":"2026-08-24","total":46},{"date":"2026-08-25","total":51},{"date":"2026-08-26","total":41},{"date":"2026-08-27","total":33},{"date":"2026-08-28","total":39},{"date":"2026-08-29","total":38},{"date":"2026-08-30","total":53},{"date":"2026-08-31","total":30},{"date":"2026-09-01","total":51},{"date":"2026-09-02","total":41},{"date":"2026-09-03","total":41},{"date":"2026-09-04","total":56},{"date":"2026-09-05","total":42},{"date":"2026-09-06","total":30}]},{"id":"chokepoint11","name":"Taiwan Strait","latitude":24.7235,"longitude":119.8314,"stress":0,"status":"normal","currentStress":0,"currentStatus":"normal","recordedStress":0,"recordedStatus":"normal","confidence":"low-to-moderate","dataQuality":"usable","freshness":"latest-available","observedAt":"2026-09-06","dataAgeDays":8.4,"scoreMovement":"not-yet-measured","scoreMethod":"traffic-deviation-beta","baseline":241,"sevenDayAverage":244.1,"currentDeviationPct":2.5,"recordedDeviationPct":2.5,"latestRecordedTransits":260,"exposure":97,"commoditiesAndChannels":"Semiconductors, electronics and Asian trade","householdImplications":"Devices, vehicles and technology prices","components":[{"id":"traffic-deviation","label":"Traffic deviation","state":"observed","score":0,"detail":"The recorded seven-day average is 2.5% above the prior comparison period."},{"id":"flow-ratio","label":"Latest flow versus baseline","state":"observed","score":8,"detail":"Latest recorded flow is 1.08 times the historical baseline."},{"id":"maritime-advisories","label":"Official maritime advisories","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"Current MARAD advisory evidence is unavailable, so WorldPredicta is not treating silence as proof that the route is risk-free."},{"id":"data-freshness","label":"Data freshness","state":"observed","score":85,"detail":"The latest traffic observation is approximately 8.4 days old."},{"id":"congestion","label":"Congestion","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"security-exposure","label":"Security exposure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"conflict-exposure","label":"Conflict exposure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"port-closures","label":"Port or passage closures","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"weather","label":"Weather disruption","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance or freight pressure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"corroborated-news","label":"Recent corroborated news","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"source-agreement","label":"Independent source agreement","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."}],"supportingEvidence":["Recorded seven-day traffic deviation: 2.5%.","Normal comparison baseline: 241.0 recorded transits.","Current seven-day average: 244.1 recorded transits."],"contradictingEvidence":["Recorded traffic remains close to its prior comparison range."],"whatCouldHappenNext":["If the deviation persists, pressure may spread through semiconductors, electronics and asian trade.","A short-lived change may reverse without becoming a sustained disruption."],"whatCouldImproveIt":["Recorded traffic returns toward its comparison range.","Current restrictions or advisories are withdrawn.","Independent verified sources show normal passage."],"whatCouldWorsenIt":["Recorded transit declines move farther from the comparison range.","A verified closure, restriction, attack, or port disruption is reported.","Verified freight or insurance pressure rises materially."],"unknowns":["Current traffic data alone does not establish why individual vessels changed route or timing.","Congestion, conflict, weather, port closure, insurance, and freight components are not yet measured in this beta score.","A current stress score is not a forecast of fuel or household prices."],"advisories":[],"history":[{"date":"2026-08-10","total":366},{"date":"2026-08-11","total":199},{"date":"2026-08-12","total":292},{"date":"2026-08-13","total":287},{"date":"2026-08-14","total":263},{"date":"2026-08-15","total":234},{"date":"2026-08-16","total":253},{"date":"2026-08-17","total":207},{"date":"2026-08-18","total":218},{"date":"2026-08-19","total":248},{"date":"2026-08-20","total":255},{"date":"2026-08-21","total":265},{"date":"2026-08-22","total":238},{"date":"2026-08-23","total":225},{"date":"2026-08-24","total":241},{"date":"2026-08-25","total":201},{"date":"2026-08-26","total":122},{"date":"2026-08-27","total":67},{"date":"2026-08-28","total":229},{"date":"2026-08-29","total":273},{"date":"2026-08-30","total":318},{"date":"2026-08-31","total":255},{"date":"2026-09-01","total":263},{"date":"2026-09-02","total":215},{"date":"2026-09-03","total":230},{"date":"2026-09-04","total":256},{"date":"2026-09-05","total":230},{"date":"2026-09-06","total":260}]}]}