{"generatedAt":"2026-10-31T20:34:27.237Z","schemaVersion":"WP-STRAIT-1.0","publication":{"manifestId":"pm-36f945f6b4411927b219c835d11172225f99f11a","generation":9134,"publishedAt":"2026-10-31T20:32:33.527Z","dataCutoff":"2026-06-30T23:59:59.000Z"},"sourceSnapshot":{"family":"operations","candidateKeys":["operations:north-america","operations:europe","operations:east-asia","operations:middle-east","operations:africa","operations:oceania"],"portwatch":{"status":"selected","key":"operations:europe","dataAsOf":"2026-10-25","retrievedAt":"2026-10-31T19:18:22.417Z","publishedAt":"2026-10-31T19:18:22.417Z","records":13},"marad":{"status":"unavailable","key":null,"dataAsOf":null,"retrievedAt":null,"publishedAt":null,"records":0},"reason":"The global maritime resolver independently selects the newest complete PortWatch and valid MARAD receipts from the manifest-pinned regional members."},"strait":{"id":"chokepoint6","name":"Strait of Hormuz","latitude":26.2969,"longitude":56.8598,"stress":null,"status":"unknown","currentStress":null,"currentStatus":"unknown","recordedStress":0,"recordedStatus":"normal","confidence":"low","dataQuality":"insufficient-volume","freshness":"latest-available","observedAt":"2026-10-25","dataAgeDays":6.9,"scoreMovement":"not-yet-measured","scoreMethod":"traffic-deviation-beta","baseline":4,"sevenDayAverage":3.3,"currentDeviationPct":null,"recordedDeviationPct":null,"latestRecordedTransits":2,"exposure":100,"commoditiesAndChannels":"Crude oil, LNG, tanker rates and inflation","householdImplications":"Gasoline, electricity and transportation costs","components":[{"id":"traffic-deviation","label":"Traffic deviation","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"The traffic baseline is missing or below five daily transits, so a percentage change cannot support a disruption label."},{"id":"flow-ratio","label":"Latest flow versus baseline","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"No baseline ratio is available."},{"id":"maritime-advisories","label":"Official maritime advisories","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"Current MARAD advisory evidence is unavailable, so WorldPredicta is not treating silence as proof that the route is risk-free."},{"id":"data-freshness","label":"Data freshness","state":"observed","score":85,"detail":"The latest traffic observation is approximately 6.9 days old."},{"id":"congestion","label":"Congestion","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"security-exposure","label":"Security exposure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"conflict-exposure","label":"Conflict exposure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"port-closures","label":"Port or passage closures","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"weather","label":"Weather disruption","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance or freight pressure","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"corroborated-news","label":"Recent corroborated news","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."},{"id":"source-agreement","label":"Independent source agreement","state":"unknown","score":null,"detail":"This component is not measured in the current traffic-deviation beta and does not change the score."}],"supportingEvidence":["Normal comparison baseline: 4.0 recorded transits.","Current seven-day average: 3.3 recorded transits."],"contradictingEvidence":[],"whatCouldHappenNext":["If the deviation persists, pressure may spread through crude oil, lng, tanker rates and inflation.","A short-lived change may reverse without becoming a sustained disruption."],"whatCouldImproveIt":["Recorded traffic returns toward its comparison range.","Current restrictions or advisories are withdrawn.","Independent verified sources show normal passage."],"whatCouldWorsenIt":["Recorded transit declines move farther from the comparison range.","A verified closure, restriction, attack, or port disruption is reported.","Verified freight or insurance pressure rises materially."],"unknowns":["The comparison baseline is missing or below five recorded daily transits, so the percentage change is withheld as insufficient-volume data.","Congestion, conflict, weather, port closure, insurance, and freight components are not yet measured in this beta score.","A current stress score is not a forecast of fuel or household prices."],"advisories":[],"history":[{"date":"2026-09-28","total":4},{"date":"2026-09-29","total":1},{"date":"2026-09-30","total":4},{"date":"2026-10-01","total":0},{"date":"2026-10-02","total":4},{"date":"2026-10-03","total":2},{"date":"2026-10-04","total":4},{"date":"2026-10-05","total":8},{"date":"2026-10-06","total":2},{"date":"2026-10-07","total":6},{"date":"2026-10-08","total":4},{"date":"2026-10-09","total":3},{"date":"2026-10-10","total":4},{"date":"2026-10-11","total":2},{"date":"2026-10-12","total":3},{"date":"2026-10-13","total":7},{"date":"2026-10-14","total":3},{"date":"2026-10-15","total":2},{"date":"2026-10-16","total":7},{"date":"2026-10-17","total":0},{"date":"2026-10-18","total":4},{"date":"2026-10-19","total":4},{"date":"2026-10-20","total":3},{"date":"2026-10-21","total":3},{"date":"2026-10-22","total":4},{"date":"2026-10-23","total":5},{"date":"2026-10-24","total":2},{"date":"2026-10-25","total":2}]}}