Direction, grade, opportunity, risk and coverage in roughly 30 seconds.
PERMANENT COUNTRY REPORTWP-LKA · LKA
SOVEREIGN COUNTRY
Sri Lanka
WORLD PREDICTA IDWP-LKA
ISO / UN CODESLK · LKA · 144
REGIONSouth Asia
CAPITALColombo
CURRENCYLKR
LANGUAGESSinhalese · Tamil
TIME ZONESAsia/Colombo
REGISTRY VERIFIEDSep 14, 2026
Classification and identifiers are registry facts. Direction ratings below are model inferences. Missing fields stay visibly unverified.
Plain-English economy, household, global role and evidence gaps.
Expandable category grades, source years, direction model and investment pathways.
WHOLE-COUNTRY INTELLIGENCE
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Choose an economy or territory to see its evidence, household conditions and investable themes. An em dash means the evidence is still being built—never that missing data equals zero.
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OFFICIAL DATA SNAPSHOT READYServed from the latest protected country-data collection. 25/25 requests attempted · 25/25 series returned usable cross-country data
LKA · South AsiaPartial coverage now
Sri Lanka
Capital: Colombo. Upper middle income. Population 21.8M; 20.5% urban.
CURRENT DATA COVERAGE76%
100% historical coverage. Historical only: povertyNational 14.3 (2019); povertyExtreme 2.7 (2019); socialProtection 37.5 (2019); safetyNetCoverage 30 (2019); plus 2 more. These readings remain visible but do not affect current grades or directions.COUNTRY RESILIENCE—Withheld: current core evidence incomplete
MACRO OPPORTUNITY ALIGNMENTC61/100 · coverage-capped; political and regulatory risk unmodeled
REQUESTS ATTEMPTED25/25All declared indicator requests were attempted
SERIES RETURNED DATA25/25Usable cross-country series, not country coverage
VALUES RETURNED FOR LKA25/25Historical values available; future-dated values excluded
CURRENT ENOUGH FOR MODEL19/2576% current model coverage
THE COUNTRY BRIEF
76% current · 100% historical coverageSri Lanka: what matters, why it matters, and what could change
BOTTOM LINE
With 21.8M people, national outcomes may depend more on specialization, productivity and external demand than sheer scale. WorldPredicta withholds the current resilience grade because required recent evidence is missing or stale. Historical coverage is 100%, while 76% is current enough to enter the model.
CURRENT COUNTRY SIGNALS
What is being reported about Sri Lanka now
Reporting is context, not proof. Each item keeps its source, date and corroboration count.
Checking the latest direct-source newsroom…
Is the economy creating durable income?
Growth of 5.0% suggests expansion, but not every household or industry will participate equally. Inflation of -4.8% indicates falling prices; that can help consumers but may also reflect weak demand. Unemployment of 4.0% is comparatively low, although wages, hours and informal work still determine job quality. GDP per person is 5K USD; that average does not show inequality or regional differences.
Is national progress reaching households?
54.6% of people use the internet, which shapes access to services, finance, education and digital business. 100.0% of the rural population has electricity access; reliability and affordability still matter beyond connection alone. Life expectancy is 77.7 years, a broad outcome influenced by income, care access, safety and public capacity. Basic sanitation reaches 95.4% of people, secondary enrollment is 88.0%, severe food insecurity is 1.1%, and social-protection programs reach No recent reading. Different survey years mean these are structural conditions, not a real-time pulse. Urbanization is 20.5%. These indicators describe access and outcomes, but not housing costs, wages or service quality.
How does the outside world affect this country?
Trade equals 41.8% of GDP, suggesting domestic demand has more weight while imports and exports still matter. Comparable mineral-rent exposure is missing. Net foreign direct investment is 0.8% of GDP, an imperfect but useful clue about external capital and project formation. The current comparable indicators do not point to one dominant theme. Diversification, valuation and company-level quality matter more than a single macro story.
The blind spots that could change the story
The comparable file still lacks country-normalized wages, hours, housing costs, benefit adequacy, education quality, current politics, security, corruption, cultural momentum, rail and road activity, and complete historical climate exposure. Those are not minor footnotes: they can reverse an investment thesis or explain why headline growth does not reach households.
WHAT THIS COULD MEAN FOR YOU
Each signal is translated into consequences for money, work, daily life and future opportunity instead of being left as a number.
Can the economy create more income?
Growth of 5.0% suggests expansion, but not every household or industry will participate equally.
Can people keep their purchasing power?
Inflation of -4.8% indicates falling prices; that can help consumers but may also reflect weak demand. Unemployment of 4.0% is comparatively low, although wages, hours and informal work still determine job quality.
How easily can the world move this country?
Trade equals 41.8% of GDP, suggesting domestic demand has more weight while imports and exports still matter.
Where the broad opportunity may sit
Comparable mineral-rent exposure is missing. Net foreign direct investment is 0.8% of GDP, an imperfect but useful clue about external capital and project formation.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The four signals most likely to change the story
If prices outpace wages while joblessness rises, household stress can spread into credit, politics and consumer demand.
Export orders, import costs and capital flows can change growth and currency pressure faster than annual statistics.
Access without reliability, affordability or capacity can turn strong demand into inflation and stalled projects.
Food security and assistance coverage show whether headline success is felt at home; wages, housing costs and benefit adequacy remain important gaps.
COUNTRY DIRECTION ENGINE · BASELINE RELEASE
MODERATE OVERALL CONFIDENCEWhere the evidence says this country may be heading
These are model inferences with explicit horizons and reversal conditions. They are not observed facts, promises, or sovereign ratings.
EconomicNext 12 months
MixedModerate confidence · baseline; movement history begins now- Current real growth is 5.0%.
- Current headline inflation is -4.8%.
- The current file covers 76% of selected indicators; historical coverage is 100%.
WHAT WOULD REVERSE ITA major demand, commodity, currency or policy shock could reverse the current baseline.
Household financesNext 12 months
Slightly improvingModerate confidence · baseline; movement history begins now- Current inflation is -4.8%.
- Current unemployment is 4.0%.
- Current severe food insecurity is 1.1%.
WHAT WOULD REVERSE ITWages, housing, utilities and benefit adequacy are not yet normalized and could materially change the conclusion.
EmploymentNext 12 months
StableModerate confidence · baseline; movement history begins now- Current unemployment is 4.0%.
- Current labor-force participation is 48.5%.
- Current youth outside work or education is 17.2%.
WHAT WOULD REVERSE ITA hiring, wage or hours-worked release could change this direction before headline unemployment moves.
InfrastructureNext 3 years
StableModerate confidence · baseline; movement history begins now- Current rural electricity access is 100.0%.
- Current basic sanitation access is 95.4%.
- Current growth is 5.0%.
WHAT WOULD REVERSE ITProject finance, execution delays, outages or fiscal pressure could slow improvement.
TechnologyNext 3 years
Slightly improvingModerate confidence · baseline; movement history begins now- Current internet use is 54.6%.
- Current electricity access shapes digital reliability.
- The model does not yet include cloud, payments, startups or AI adoption.
WHAT WOULD REVERSE ITAffordability, censorship, weak power reliability or capital shortages could reverse digital gains.
HealthNext 3 years
StableModerate confidence · baseline; movement history begins now- Current life expectancy is 77.7 years.
- Current under-five mortality is 5.9 per 1,000.
- Hospital capacity and workforce data are still missing.
WHAT WOULD REVERSE ITAn outbreak, conflict, funding cut or care-capacity shock could change the outlook.
Climate transitionNext 5 to 10 years
Insufficient evidenceLow confidence · baseline; movement history begins now- Withheld because required current evidence is missing or stale: renewableEnergy is from 2021 (5 years old; maximum 4).
WHAT WOULD REVERSE ITPolicy changes, grid constraints, climate disasters or fossil-fuel investment could change the transition path.
InvestmentNext 3 years
MixedModerate confidence · baseline; movement history begins now- Broad-market quality and selectivity
- The current comparable indicators do not point to one dominant theme. Diversification, valuation and company-level quality matter more than a single macro story.
- Foreign direct investment is 0.8% of GDP.
WHAT WOULD REVERSE ITValuation, currency, sanctions, ownership rules, liquidity and legal access can outweigh the macro theme.
Political + securityNext 3 months
Insufficient evidenceLow confidence · baseline; movement history begins now- Comparable current politics, election, protest, conflict and security feeds are not yet normalized.
- No political direction is inferred from GDP or market data.
- The missing rating is deliberate.
WHAT WOULD REVERSE ITA verified political and security source stack is required before this category can receive a direction.
INVESTMENT ACCESS MAP
How an investor could research exposure to Sri Lanka
Economic outlook, investability and market access are separate. A strong economy can still be expensive, illiquid or legally difficult to access.
OVERALL INVESTABILITYNOT RATED
Not rated until legal access, liquidity, custody, convertibility, repatriation and political risk are verified.
LEGAL FOREIGN ACCESSNot verified for an investor starting in United StatesTruthful gap · do not infer access
PRACTICAL RETAIL ACCESSLimited; no broad-market research vehicle is verifiedTruthful gap · do not infer access
VERIFIED INVESTMENT VEHICLENone verified for tradingTruthful gap · do not infer access
LIQUIDITYNot verifiedTruthful gap · do not infer access
CUSTODY AVAILABILITYNot verifiedTruthful gap · do not infer access
CURRENCY CONVERTIBILITYNot verifiedTruthful gap · do not infer access
CAPITAL REPATRIATIONNot verifiedTruthful gap · do not infer access
POLITICAL AND REGULATORY RISKNot ratedTruthful gap · do not infer access
DATA CONFIDENCEModerate; 76% of selected indicators are current enoughVerified in the current evidence file
No simple broad-market vehicle verified
Research the local exchange, broad index, foreign-ownership rules, custody, settlement and liquidity. WorldPredicta will not invent a ticker.
Requires instrument-level verification
Sovereign bonds, hard-currency debt and foreign exchange can create exposure, but minimum sizes, withholding tax, duration, convertibility and broker access are not yet normalized here.
Broad-market quality and selectivity
The current comparable indicators do not point to one dominant theme. Diversification, valuation and company-level quality matter more than a single macro story. Licensing, local partners, ownership limits, labor rules and repatriation must be checked with official investment and regulatory bodies.
Suppliers, customers and regional funds
Companies or funds outside Sri Lanka may receive revenue from its demand, trade or resource cycle. Revenue geography and valuation still need company-level research.
No pathway verified yet
Title, residency, financing, tax, disclosure, exit liquidity and foreign-buyer rules vary sharply. This path stays unranked until official and transaction-level evidence is available.
CURRENCY
Exchange-rate moves can erase local returns. Hedging cost and convertibility are not yet scored.
LAW + OWNERSHIP
Foreign ownership, licensing, taxation, custody and capital-repatriation rules require current local verification.
LIQUIDITY
A quoted asset may still be difficult or expensive to enter and exit. Volume and market depth are not yet normalized.
SANCTIONS
No live sanctions clearance has been performed. Check the current rules for every investor, security, bank and counterparty.
Educational research only. This is not personalized investment, tax or legal advice, a recommendation to trade, or a promise of returns.
Economic momentumANNUAL · CURRENT ENOUGH
DLatest available growth is 5.0%; latest available inflation is -4.8%; latest available income per person is 5K USD.
WHY IT MATTERS
Growth builds income; inflation can erase it.
WHO FEELS IT
Workers, firms and government.
WATCH NEXT
Real growth, orders and demand.
Work & jobsANNUAL · CURRENT ENOUGH
DLatest available unemployment is 4.0%, labor-force participation is 48.5%, and 17.2% of young people are outside work, education or training.
WHY IT MATTERS
Jobs connect growth to household security.
WHO FEELS IT
Workers and young people.
WATCH NEXT
Hiring, hours, wages and participation.
Price stabilityANNUAL · CURRENT ENOUGH
DLatest available inflation is -4.8%. The grade rewards stability near 2–3%, not simply the lowest possible number.
WHY IT MATTERS
Inflation cuts purchasing power.
WHO FEELS IT
Renters, borrowers and importers.
WATCH NEXT
Food, housing, fuel and wages.
Digital accessANNUAL · CURRENT ENOUGH
D54.6% of people use the internet in an annual structural indicator current enough for this model.
WHY IT MATTERS
Connectivity expands access and productivity.
WHO FEELS IT
Students, firms and rural areas.
WATCH NEXT
Cost, speed, payments and access gaps.
Basic infrastructureANNUAL · CURRENT ENOUGH
B100.0% of the rural population has electricity, 95.4% has basic sanitation, digital access is 54.6%, and transport is represented by a structural passenger-rate measure. The grade is capped below A because power reliability and water access are missing.
WHY IT MATTERS
Power and services keep homes and industry working.
WHO FEELS IT
Households, industry and utilities.
WATCH NEXT
Outages, capacity and investment.
Education accessANNUAL · CURRENT ENOUGH
BLatest available gross secondary-school enrollment is 88.0%. This measures access, not learning quality or affordability.
WHY IT MATTERS
Education builds skills and earning power.
WHO FEELS IT
Students, families and employers.
WATCH NEXT
Access, completion, learning and cost.
OFFICIAL STATUS + AGGREGATE MOVEMENT
Rules and people in Sri Lanka
This section separates legal jurisdiction from possible effects, and movement measurements from individual travel. A proposal is not law; an application is not an arrival; a stock is not a flow.
No current action in connected sources
This jurisdiction is not yet covered by a dedicated official-law adapter. The gap is shown instead of being filled from headlines.
9 measured signals
Sri Lanka → France · 5,395 asylum application · 2025
Applications lodged are not verified arrivals, approvals or a live count of people in transit.
Sri Lanka → Italy · 3,932 asylum application · 2025
Applications lodged are not verified arrivals, approvals or a live count of people in transit.
Sri Lanka → Japan · 3,151 asylum application · 2025
Applications lodged are not verified arrivals, approvals or a live count of people in transit.
Sri Lanka → Israel · 2,819 asylum application · 2025
Applications lodged are not verified arrivals, approvals or a live count of people in transit.
Pakistan → Sri Lanka · 8 asylum application · 2025
Applications lodged are not verified arrivals, approvals or a live count of people in transit.
Afghanistan → Sri Lanka · 5 asylum application · 2025
Applications lodged are not verified arrivals, approvals or a live count of people in transit.
Sri Lanka → Nepal · 5 asylum application · 2025
Applications lodged are not verified arrivals, approvals or a live count of people in transit.
REFUGEE NOWCAST · 211 people · July 2026
UNHCR nowcasting is a modeled destination-country stock estimate. Origin is unknown here; it is not a live arrival flow.
NET MIGRATION · -30,724 people · 2025
Net migration is the balance of inflows and outflows. It does not identify an origin, destination corridor or people moving now.