Recent headline inflation remains sensitive to housing, energy and service costs.
Supply disruptions can quickly re-enter household prices.
Labor-market resilience can keep demand firmer than expected.
WHAT COULD LOWER THE PROBABILITY
A sharper slowdown could reduce pricing power.
Energy and goods prices could fall enough to pull the headline rate below the threshold.
WHAT THIS COULD MEAN FOR YOU
Money
Higher inflation can keep borrowing costs and everyday expenses elevated.
Home
Rent, insurance, utilities and financing remain the household channels to watch.
Work
Wage gains matter less if prices rise just as quickly.
PUBLIC RESOLUTION RULE
Resolve YES if the BLS December 2026 all-items CPI 12-month percentage change is 3.0% or higher in the first published release; otherwise resolve NO. Later revisions do not change the result.
A small number of narrow passages carry globally important energy and container flows.
Conflict, weather, accidents and rerouting can produce sharp traffic changes.
Current monitoring already exposes traffic baselines rather than relying on headlines alone.
WHAT COULD LOWER THE PROBABILITY
Shipping operators can reroute before traffic falls through the threshold.
Maintenance, reporting gaps and calendar effects can imitate a short disruption.
WHAT THIS COULD MEAN FOR YOU
Money
A sustained flow drop can raise freight, fuel and imported-goods costs.
Work
Factories and logistics employers can feel parts delays and route changes.
Home
Delivery times and some retail prices may move after a lag.
PUBLIC RESOLUTION RULE
Resolve YES if any passage in the published WorldPredicta monitoring set has a complete 7-day average at least 20% below its preceding 28-day daily-transit average before the deadline. Source outages and incomplete weeks do not qualify.
Recent global temperatures provide a high starting baseline.
Ocean heat and greenhouse-gas forcing influence the full-year average.
WorldPredicta heat observations provide current local context but do not determine the global rank.
WHAT COULD LOWER THE PROBABILITY
Ocean-atmosphere variability could cool the remaining months.
Different temperature datasets can produce slightly different rankings.
WHAT THIS COULD MEAN FOR YOU
Health
A warmer global year raises the background risk of dangerous heat exposure.
Home
Cooling demand, insurance losses and electricity stress can increase.
Family
Heat planning matters most for children, older adults and outdoor workers.
PUBLIC RESOLUTION RULE
Resolve YES if Copernicus ranks the 2026 ERA5 calendar-year global mean surface-air temperature first, second or third in its first complete annual bulletin; otherwise resolve NO.
Estimate the probability of this exact public question before its deadline.
Calculation
Expert-weighted log-odds aggregation. Prior 70% plus declared evidence contributions.
Training period
No fitted training period is claimed.
Historical performance
Not available until forecasts resolve. WorldPredicta will not backfill a fake track record.
Calibration method
Pending a sufficient set of resolved forecasts; probabilities are grouped and scored publicly.
Known weakness
The current WorldPredicta formula is a baseline research model and has not been calibrated across a long hindcast. Local heat markers are context, not a global thermometer.
Current version
WP-CLIMATE-0.1
ECONOMYCONFIDENCE · LOW
Will the IMF's first 2027 outlook update forecast world real GDP growth below 3.0% for 2027?
44%ESTIMATED CHANCE
Trade, inflation, interest rates and policy shocks pull in different directions, so model disagreement remains high.
Published
Jul 30, 2026
Updated
Jul 30, 2026
Data through
Jul 30, 2026
Resolution date
Feb 28, 2027
Movement
Initial published baseline. No movement history exists yet.
Weak trade or investment can pull multiple regions down together.
Persistent inflation can keep financial conditions restrictive.
Large geopolitical or energy shocks would lower the growth path.
WHAT COULD LOWER THE PROBABILITY
Disinflation and easier financial conditions could support demand.
Productivity, investment and stronger emerging-market growth could keep the forecast above 3%.
WHAT THIS COULD MEAN FOR YOU
Work
Slower global growth can weaken hiring, exports and business investment.
Money
Markets, rates and currencies may respond before household data does.
Safety
Fiscal pressure can reduce governments' room to absorb new shocks.
PUBLIC RESOLUTION RULE
Resolve YES if the IMF's first World Economic Outlook publication or update released in 2027 lists 2027 world output growth below 3.0%; exactly 3.0% resolves NO.
Estimate the probability of this exact public question before its deadline.
Calculation
Expert-weighted log-odds aggregation. Prior 50% plus declared evidence contributions.
Training period
No fitted training period is claimed.
Historical performance
Not available until forecasts resolve. WorldPredicta will not backfill a fake track record.
Calibration method
Pending a sufficient set of resolved forecasts; probabilities are grouped and scored publicly.
Known weakness
This forecasts another institution's forecast, not final realized GDP. Large revisions are common and country coverage is uneven.
Current version
WP-ECO-0.1
FOODCONFIDENCE · LOW
Will the FAO Food Price Index for December 2026 be at least 8% above its December 2025 level?
35%ESTIMATED CHANCE
Weather, energy, currencies, fertilizer and trade restrictions can compound, but strong harvests can reverse pressure quickly.
Published
Jul 30, 2026
Updated
Jul 30, 2026
Data through
Jul 30, 2026
Resolution date
Jan 31, 2027
Movement
Initial published baseline. The June index receives zero probability weight because its historical component diagnostic underperforms the constant base rate.
Heat and rainfall shocks can affect several major producing regions at once.
Energy and fertilizer costs flow into production and transport.
Export restrictions can amplify a physical shortage into a price shock.
WHAT COULD LOWER THE PROBABILITY
Strong harvests and inventories could absorb weather losses.
A stronger dollar or weaker demand can reduce the global index.
WHAT THIS COULD MEAN FOR YOU
Family
Food pressure hits lower-income households first because groceries take a larger budget share.
Money
Restaurants, retailers and governments may pass through or subsidize higher costs.
Safety
Severe and persistent food inflation can add social and political stress.
PUBLIC RESOLUTION RULE
Resolve YES if the first FAO release of the December 2026 Food Price Index is at least 8.0% above the first released December 2025 value. Later revisions do not change the result.
Air connectivity and household travel demand can keep expanding.
Visa changes and new routes can unlock additional cross-border trips.
Large events and favorable exchange rates can shift regional flows.
WHAT COULD LOWER THE PROBABILITY
Conflict, disease, disasters or expensive fuel could interrupt travel.
High accommodation and airfare costs may restrain household demand.
WHAT THIS COULD MEAN FOR YOU
Travel
Higher demand can mean more routes but also more crowded destinations and higher prices.
Work
Tourism-heavy economies may gain jobs and foreign-currency income.
Home
Residents in popular destinations can face rent, congestion and infrastructure pressure.
PUBLIC RESOLUTION RULE
Resolve YES if UN Tourism's first complete 2026 estimate reports international tourist arrivals at 105% or more of the 2019 total; otherwise resolve NO.