Direction, grade, opportunity, risk and coverage in roughly 30 seconds.
PERMANENT COUNTRY REPORTWP-GMB · GMB
SOVEREIGN COUNTRY
The Gambia
Official name: Republic of The Gambia
WORLD PREDICTA IDWP-GMB
ISO / UN CODESGM · GMB · 270
REGIONSub-Saharan Africa
CAPITALBanjul
CURRENCYGMD
LANGUAGESEnglish
TIME ZONESAfrica/Banjul
REGISTRY VERIFIEDAug 2, 2026
Classification and identifiers are registry facts. Direction ratings below are model inferences. Missing fields stay visibly unverified.
Plain-English economy, household, global role and evidence gaps.
Expandable category grades, source years, direction model and investment pathways.
WHOLE-COUNTRY INTELLIGENCE
One report card. Every country. No hidden grades.
Choose an economy or territory to see its evidence, household conditions and investable themes. An em dash means the evidence is still being built—never that missing data equals zero.
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OFFICIAL DATA SNAPSHOT READYServed from the latest protected country-data collection. 25/25 requests attempted · 20/25 series returned usable cross-country data
GMB · Sub-Saharan Africa Partial coverage now
The Gambia
Capital: Banjul. Low income. Population 2.8M; 65.0% urban.
CURRENT DATA COVERAGE72%
80% historical coverage. Historical only: socialProtection 3 (2015); safetyNetCoverage 1.5 (2015). These readings remain visible but do not affect current grades or directions.COUNTRY RESILIENCED48/100 · current-data model, not a sovereign rating
MACRO OPPORTUNITY ALIGNMENT—Withheld: current core evidence incomplete
REQUESTS ATTEMPTED25/25All declared indicator requests were attempted
SERIES RETURNED DATA20/25Usable cross-country series, not country coverage
VALUES RETURNED FOR GMB20/25Historical values available; future-dated values excluded
CURRENT ENOUGH FOR MODEL18/2572% current model coverage
THE COUNTRY BRIEF
72% current · 80% historical coverageThe Gambia: what matters, why it matters, and what could change
BOTTOM LINE
With 2.8M people, national outcomes may depend more on specialization, productivity and external demand than sheer scale. WorldPredicta currently assigns a D resilience grade from 72% current indicator coverage (80% historical coverage). This is a model summary—not a sovereign credit rating.
CURRENT COUNTRY SIGNALS
What is being reported about The Gambia now
Reporting is context, not proof. Each item keeps its source, date and corroboration count.
Checking the latest direct-source newsroom…
Is the economy creating durable income?
Growth of 5.9% points to rapid expansion; the question is whether infrastructure, prices and jobs can keep up. Inflation of 11.6% is a major household and policy risk because purchasing power can fall faster than wages adjust. Unemployment of 6.5% is comparatively low, although wages, hours and informal work still determine job quality. GDP per person is 919.1 USD; that average does not show inequality or regional differences.
Is national progress reaching households?
49.5% of people use the internet, which shapes access to services, finance, education and digital business. Rural electricity access is not available. Life expectancy is 66.1 years, a broad outcome influenced by income, care access, safety and public capacity. Basic sanitation reaches 48.2% of people, secondary enrollment is 107.0%, severe food insecurity is No recent reading, and social-protection programs reach No recent reading. Different survey years mean these are structural conditions, not a real-time pulse. Urbanization is 65.0%. These indicators describe access and outcomes, but not housing costs, wages or service quality.
How does the outside world affect this country?
Trade exposure is missing. Comparable mineral-rent exposure is missing. Net foreign direct investment is 9.7% of GDP, an imperfect but useful clue about external capital and project formation. No investment theme is assigned because only 2 of 5 required structural inputs are current enough to use. Historical observations remain visible below but cannot become a present-day thesis.
The blind spots that could change the story
The comparable file still lacks country-normalized wages, hours, housing costs, benefit adequacy, education quality, current politics, security, corruption, cultural momentum, rail and road activity, and complete historical climate exposure. Those are not minor footnotes: they can reverse an investment thesis or explain why headline growth does not reach households.
WHAT THIS COULD MEAN FOR YOU
Each signal is translated into consequences for money, work, daily life and future opportunity instead of being left as a number.
Can the economy create more income?
Growth of 5.9% points to rapid expansion; the question is whether infrastructure, prices and jobs can keep up.
Can people keep their purchasing power?
Inflation of 11.6% is a major household and policy risk because purchasing power can fall faster than wages adjust. Unemployment of 6.5% is comparatively low, although wages, hours and informal work still determine job quality.
How easily can the world move this country?
Trade exposure is missing.
Where the broad opportunity may sit
Comparable mineral-rent exposure is missing. Net foreign direct investment is 9.7% of GDP, an imperfect but useful clue about external capital and project formation.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The four signals most likely to change the story
If prices outpace wages while joblessness rises, household stress can spread into credit, politics and consumer demand.
Export orders, import costs and capital flows can change growth and currency pressure faster than annual statistics.
Access without reliability, affordability or capacity can turn strong demand into inflation and stalled projects.
Food security and assistance coverage show whether headline success is felt at home; wages, housing costs and benefit adequacy remain important gaps.
COUNTRY DIRECTION ENGINE · BASELINE RELEASE
LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCEWhere the evidence says this country may be heading
These are model inferences with explicit horizons and reversal conditions. They are not observed facts, promises, or sovereign ratings.
EconomicNext 12 months
Slightly weakeningLow confidence · baseline; movement history begins now- Current real growth is 5.9%.
- Current headline inflation is 11.6%.
- The current file covers 72% of selected indicators; historical coverage is 80%.
WHAT WOULD REVERSE ITA major demand, commodity, currency or policy shock could reverse the current baseline.
Household financesNext 12 months
WeakeningLow confidence · baseline; movement history begins now- Current inflation is 11.6%.
- Current unemployment is 6.5%.
- Current severe food insecurity is No recent reading.
WHAT WOULD REVERSE ITWages, housing, utilities and benefit adequacy are not yet normalized and could materially change the conclusion.
EmploymentNext 12 months
MixedLow confidence · baseline; movement history begins now- Current unemployment is 6.5%.
- Current labor-force participation is 47.5%.
- Current youth outside work or education is 36.5%.
WHAT WOULD REVERSE ITA hiring, wage or hours-worked release could change this direction before headline unemployment moves.
InfrastructureNext 3 years
Insufficient evidenceLow confidence · baseline; movement history begins now- Withheld because required current evidence is missing or stale: electricity is missing.
WHAT WOULD REVERSE ITProject finance, execution delays, outages or fiscal pressure could slow improvement.
TechnologyNext 3 years
Insufficient evidenceLow confidence · baseline; movement history begins now- Withheld because required current evidence is missing or stale: electricity is missing.
WHAT WOULD REVERSE ITAffordability, censorship, weak power reliability or capital shortages could reverse digital gains.
HealthNext 3 years
MixedLow confidence · baseline; movement history begins now- Current life expectancy is 66.1 years.
- Current under-five mortality is 42.4 per 1,000.
- Hospital capacity and workforce data are still missing.
WHAT WOULD REVERSE ITAn outbreak, conflict, funding cut or care-capacity shock could change the outlook.
Climate transitionNext 5 to 10 years
Slightly improvingLow confidence · baseline; movement history begins now- Current renewables provide 47.7% of final energy use.
- Current PM2.5 exposure is 38.3 μg/m³.
- The current file does not yet model flood, drought or water stress nationally.
WHAT WOULD REVERSE ITPolicy changes, grid constraints, climate disasters or fossil-fuel investment could change the transition path.
InvestmentNext 3 years
Insufficient evidenceLow confidence · baseline; movement history begins now- Insufficient current evidence
- No investment theme is assigned because only 2 of 5 required structural inputs are current enough to use. Historical observations remain visible below but cannot become a present-day thesis.
- Foreign direct investment is 9.7% of GDP.
WHAT WOULD REVERSE ITValuation, currency, sanctions, ownership rules, liquidity and legal access can outweigh the macro theme.
Political + securityNext 3 months
Insufficient evidenceLow confidence · baseline; movement history begins now- Comparable current politics, election, protest, conflict and security feeds are not yet normalized.
- No political direction is inferred from GDP or market data.
- The missing rating is deliberate.
WHAT WOULD REVERSE ITA verified political and security source stack is required before this category can receive a direction.
INVESTMENT ACCESS MAP
How an investor could research exposure to The Gambia
Economic outlook, investability and market access are separate. A strong economy can still be expensive, illiquid or legally difficult to access.
OVERALL INVESTABILITYNOT RATED
Not rated until legal access, liquidity, custody, convertibility, repatriation and political risk are verified.
LEGAL FOREIGN ACCESSNot verified for an investor starting in United StatesTruthful gap · do not infer access
PRACTICAL RETAIL ACCESSLimited; no broad-market research vehicle is verifiedTruthful gap · do not infer access
VERIFIED INVESTMENT VEHICLENone verified for tradingTruthful gap · do not infer access
LIQUIDITYNot verifiedTruthful gap · do not infer access
CUSTODY AVAILABILITYNot verifiedTruthful gap · do not infer access
CURRENCY CONVERTIBILITYNot verifiedTruthful gap · do not infer access
CAPITAL REPATRIATIONNot verifiedTruthful gap · do not infer access
POLITICAL AND REGULATORY RISKNot ratedTruthful gap · do not infer access
DATA CONFIDENCELow; 72% of selected indicators are current enoughTruthful gap · do not infer access
No simple broad-market vehicle verified
Research the local exchange, broad index, foreign-ownership rules, custody, settlement and liquidity. WorldPredicta will not invent a ticker.
Requires instrument-level verification
Sovereign bonds, hard-currency debt and foreign exchange can create exposure, but minimum sizes, withholding tax, duration, convertibility and broker access are not yet normalized here.
Insufficient current evidence
No investment theme is assigned because only 2 of 5 required structural inputs are current enough to use. Historical observations remain visible below but cannot become a present-day thesis. Licensing, local partners, ownership limits, labor rules and repatriation must be checked with official investment and regulatory bodies.
Suppliers, customers and regional funds
Companies or funds outside The Gambia may receive revenue from its demand, trade or resource cycle. Revenue geography and valuation still need company-level research.
No pathway verified yet
Title, residency, financing, tax, disclosure, exit liquidity and foreign-buyer rules vary sharply. This path stays unranked until official and transaction-level evidence is available.
CURRENCY
Exchange-rate moves can erase local returns. Hedging cost and convertibility are not yet scored.
LAW + OWNERSHIP
Foreign ownership, licensing, taxation, custody and capital-repatriation rules require current local verification.
LIQUIDITY
A quoted asset may still be difficult or expensive to enter and exit. Volume and market depth are not yet normalized.
SANCTIONS
No live sanctions clearance has been performed. Check the current rules for every investor, security, bank and counterparty.
Educational research only. This is not personalized investment, tax or legal advice, a recommendation to trade, or a promise of returns.
Economic momentumANNUAL · CURRENT ENOUGH
DLatest available growth is 5.9%; latest available inflation is 11.6%; latest available income per person is 919.1 USD.
WHY IT MATTERS
Growth builds income; inflation can erase it.
WHO FEELS IT
Workers, firms and government.
WATCH NEXT
Real growth, orders and demand.
Work & jobsANNUAL · CURRENT ENOUGH
FLatest available unemployment is 6.5%, labor-force participation is 47.5%, and 36.5% of young people are outside work, education or training.
WHY IT MATTERS
Jobs connect growth to household security.
WHO FEELS IT
Workers and young people.
WATCH NEXT
Hiring, hours, wages and participation.
Price stabilityANNUAL · CURRENT ENOUGH
FLatest available inflation is 11.6%. The grade rewards stability near 2–3%, not simply the lowest possible number.
WHY IT MATTERS
Inflation cuts purchasing power.
WHO FEELS IT
Renters, borrowers and importers.
WATCH NEXT
Food, housing, fuel and wages.
Digital accessANNUAL · CURRENT ENOUGH
D49.5% of people use the internet in an annual structural indicator current enough for this model.
WHY IT MATTERS
Connectivity expands access and productivity.
WHO FEELS IT
Students, firms and rural areas.
WATCH NEXT
Cost, speed, payments and access gaps.
Education accessANNUAL · CURRENT ENOUGH
ALatest available gross secondary-school enrollment is 107.0%. This measures access, not learning quality or affordability.
WHY IT MATTERS
Education builds skills and earning power.
WHO FEELS IT
Students, families and employers.
WATCH NEXT
Access, completion, learning and cost.
Food & poverty securityPARTIAL COVERAGE
FLatest available severe food insecurity is No recent reading; national poverty is 53.4% and extreme poverty is 22.0%.
WHY IT MATTERS
Food stress reaches households quickly.
WHO FEELS IT
Children, families and farmers.
WATCH NEXT
Prices, crops, imports and assistance.