Direction, grade, opportunity, risk and coverage in roughly 30 seconds.
PERMANENT COUNTRY REPORTWP-TUV · TUV
SOVEREIGN COUNTRY
Tuvalu
WORLD PREDICTA IDWP-TUV
ISO CODESTV · TUV
REGIONEast Asia & Pacific
CAPITALFunafuti
REGISTRY VERIFIEDJul 31, 2026
Classification and identifiers are registry facts. Direction ratings below are model inferences. Missing fields stay visibly unverified.
Plain-English economy, household, global role and evidence gaps.
Expandable category grades, source years, direction model and investment pathways.
WHOLE-COUNTRY INTELLIGENCE
One report card. Every country. No hidden grades.
Choose an economy or territory to see its evidence, household conditions and investable themes. An em dash means the evidence is still being built—never that missing data equals zero.
217WORLD BANK PROFILES218 WorldPredicta entities including Holy See
OFFICIAL DATA RESPONDING25/25 indicator series returned; each observation is age-checked
TUV · East Asia & PacificLimited coverage now
Tuvalu
Capital: Funafuti. Upper middle income. Population 9.5K; 65.4% urban.
CURRENT DATA COVERAGE52%
68% historical coverage. Historical only: inflation 0.5 (2011); internet 35.2 (2017); povertyExtreme 9 (2010); mineralRents 0 (2021). These readings remain visible but do not affect current grades or directions.COUNTRY RESILIENCE—Withheld: current core evidence incomplete
OPPORTUNITY ALIGNMENT—Withheld: current core evidence incomplete
THE COUNTRY BRIEF
52% current · 68% historical coverageTuvalu: what matters, why it matters, and what could change
BOTTOM LINE
With 9.5K people, national outcomes may depend more on specialization, productivity and external demand than sheer scale. WorldPredicta withholds the current resilience grade because required recent evidence is missing or stale. Historical coverage is 68%, while 52% is current enough to enter the model.
CURRENT COUNTRY SIGNALS
What is being reported about Tuvalu now
Reporting is context, not proof. Each item keeps its source, date and corroboration count.
Checking the latest direct-source newsroom…
Is the economy creating durable income?
Growth of 1.6% is weak, leaving less room for wage gains, profits and fiscal mistakes. Comparable inflation is missing. Comparable unemployment is missing, so the link between growth and households is incomplete. GDP per person is 6K USD; that average does not show inequality or regional differences.
Is national progress reaching households?
Internet access is not available in the comparable file. 100.0% of the rural population has electricity access; reliability and affordability still matter beyond connection alone. Life expectancy is 67.3 years, a broad outcome influenced by income, care access, safety and public capacity. Basic sanitation reaches 89.7% of people, secondary enrollment is 90.7%, severe food insecurity is No recent reading, and social-protection programs reach No recent reading. Different survey years mean these are structural conditions, not a real-time pulse. Urbanization is 65.4%. These indicators describe access and outcomes, but not housing costs, wages or service quality.
How does the outside world affect this country?
Trade exposure is missing. Comparable mineral-rent exposure is missing. Net foreign direct investment is 0.5% of GDP, an imperfect but useful clue about external capital and project formation. No investment theme is assigned because only 2 of 5 required structural inputs are current enough to use. Historical observations remain visible below but cannot become a present-day thesis.
The blind spots that could change the story
The comparable file still lacks country-normalized wages, hours, housing costs, benefit adequacy, education quality, current politics, security, corruption, cultural momentum, rail and road activity, and complete historical climate exposure. Those are not minor footnotes: they can reverse an investment thesis or explain why headline growth does not reach households.
WHAT THIS COULD MEAN FOR YOU
Each signal is translated into consequences for money, work, daily life and future opportunity instead of being left as a number.
Can the economy create more income?
Growth of 1.6% is weak, leaving less room for wage gains, profits and fiscal mistakes.
Can people keep their purchasing power?
Comparable inflation is missing. Comparable unemployment is missing, so the link between growth and households is incomplete.
How easily can the world move this country?
Trade exposure is missing.
Where the broad opportunity may sit
Comparable mineral-rent exposure is missing. Net foreign direct investment is 0.5% of GDP, an imperfect but useful clue about external capital and project formation.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The four signals most likely to change the story
If prices outpace wages while joblessness rises, household stress can spread into credit, politics and consumer demand.
Export orders, import costs and capital flows can change growth and currency pressure faster than annual statistics.
Access without reliability, affordability or capacity can turn strong demand into inflation and stalled projects.
Food security and assistance coverage show whether headline success is felt at home; wages, housing costs and benefit adequacy remain important gaps.
COUNTRY DIRECTION ENGINE · BASELINE RELEASE
LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCEWhere the evidence says this country may be heading
These are model inferences with explicit horizons and reversal conditions. They are not observed facts, promises, or sovereign ratings.
EconomicNext 12 months
Insufficient evidenceLow confidence · baseline; movement history begins now- Withheld because required current evidence is missing or stale: inflation is from 2011 (15 years old; maximum 2).
WHAT WOULD REVERSE ITA major demand, commodity, currency or policy shock could reverse the current baseline.
Household financesNext 12 months
Insufficient evidenceLow confidence · baseline; movement history begins now- Withheld because required current evidence is missing or stale: inflation is from 2011 (15 years old; maximum 2); unemployment is missing.
WHAT WOULD REVERSE ITWages, housing, utilities and benefit adequacy are not yet normalized and could materially change the conclusion.
EmploymentNext 12 months
Insufficient evidenceLow confidence · baseline; movement history begins now- Withheld because required current evidence is missing or stale: unemployment is missing.
WHAT WOULD REVERSE ITA hiring, wage or hours-worked release could change this direction before headline unemployment moves.
InfrastructureNext 3 years
StableLow confidence · baseline; movement history begins now- Current rural electricity access is 100.0%.
- Current basic sanitation access is 89.7%.
- Current growth is 1.6%.
WHAT WOULD REVERSE ITProject finance, execution delays, outages or fiscal pressure could slow improvement.
TechnologyNext 3 years
Insufficient evidenceLow confidence · baseline; movement history begins now- Withheld because required current evidence is missing or stale: internet is from 2017 (9 years old; maximum 3).
WHAT WOULD REVERSE ITAffordability, censorship, weak power reliability or capital shortages could reverse digital gains.
HealthNext 3 years
MixedLow confidence · baseline; movement history begins now- Current life expectancy is 67.3 years.
- Current under-five mortality is 19.2 per 1,000.
- Hospital capacity and workforce data are still missing.
WHAT WOULD REVERSE ITAn outbreak, conflict, funding cut or care-capacity shock could change the outlook.
Climate transitionNext 5 to 10 years
MixedLow confidence · baseline; movement history begins now- Current renewables provide 5.2% of final energy use.
- Current PM2.5 exposure is 5.2 μg/m³.
- The current file does not yet model flood, drought or water stress nationally.
WHAT WOULD REVERSE ITPolicy changes, grid constraints, climate disasters or fossil-fuel investment could change the transition path.
InvestmentNext 3 years
Insufficient evidenceLow confidence · baseline; movement history begins now- Insufficient current evidence
- No investment theme is assigned because only 2 of 5 required structural inputs are current enough to use. Historical observations remain visible below but cannot become a present-day thesis.
- Foreign direct investment is 0.5% of GDP.
WHAT WOULD REVERSE ITValuation, currency, sanctions, ownership rules, liquidity and legal access can outweigh the macro theme.
Political + securityNext 3 months
Insufficient evidenceLow confidence · baseline; movement history begins now- Comparable current politics, election, protest, conflict and security feeds are not yet normalized.
- No political direction is inferred from GDP or market data.
- The missing rating is deliberate.
WHAT WOULD REVERSE ITA verified political and security source stack is required before this category can receive a direction.
INVESTMENT ACCESS MAP
How an investor could research exposure to Tuvalu
Economic outlook, investability and market access are separate. A strong economy can still be expensive, illiquid or legally difficult to access.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOKInsufficient evidence12-month model inference
INVESTABILITY—coverage + macro + access screen
CURRENT-ENOUGH GROWTH1.6%older observations are excluded from this screen
MARKET ACCESSHighfrom United States
POLITICAL RISKNot yet ratedcurrent evidence stack incomplete
CONFIDENCELow52% current · 68% historical
No simple broad-market vehicle verified
Research the local exchange, broad index, foreign-ownership rules, custody, settlement and liquidity. WorldPredicta will not invent a ticker.
Requires instrument-level verification
Sovereign bonds, hard-currency debt and foreign exchange can create exposure, but minimum sizes, withholding tax, duration, convertibility and broker access are not yet normalized here.
Insufficient current evidence
No investment theme is assigned because only 2 of 5 required structural inputs are current enough to use. Historical observations remain visible below but cannot become a present-day thesis. Licensing, local partners, ownership limits, labor rules and repatriation must be checked with official investment and regulatory bodies.
Suppliers, customers and regional funds
Companies or funds outside Tuvalu may receive revenue from its demand, trade or resource cycle. Revenue geography and valuation still need company-level research.
No pathway verified yet
Title, residency, financing, tax, disclosure, exit liquidity and foreign-buyer rules vary sharply. This path stays unranked until official and transaction-level evidence is available.
CURRENCY
Exchange-rate moves can erase local returns. Hedging cost and convertibility are not yet scored.
LAW + OWNERSHIP
Foreign ownership, licensing, taxation, custody and capital-repatriation rules require current local verification.
LIQUIDITY
A quoted asset may still be difficult or expensive to enter and exit. Volume and market depth are not yet normalized.
SANCTIONS
No live sanctions clearance has been performed. Check the current rules for every investor, security, bank and counterparty.
Educational research only. This is not personalized investment, tax or legal advice, a recommendation to trade, or a promise of returns.
Basic infrastructurelive
A100.0% of the rural population has electricity and 89.7% of people use at least basic sanitation. Reliability still needs local feeds.
WHY IT MATTERS
Reliable power and basic services determine whether factories, hospitals and homes can function.
WHO FEELS IT
Households, industry, utilities and project investors.
WATCH NEXT
Outages, reserve margins, grid investment and access gaps.
Population healthlive
DLife expectancy is 67.3 years and under-five mortality is 19.2 per 1,000 births.
WHY IT MATTERS
Health affects labor productivity, household costs and resilience to shocks.
WHO FEELS IT
Families, employers, hospitals and public budgets.
WATCH NEXT
Life expectancy, preventable disease, staffing, capacity and medicine supply.
Education accesslive
BGross secondary-school enrollment is 90.7%. This measures access, not learning quality or affordability.
WHY IT MATTERS
Education expands earning power, productivity and a country's ability to adopt new technology.
WHO FEELS IT
Students, families, employers and future taxpayers.
WATCH NEXT
Enrollment, completion, learning outcomes, affordability and skills demand.
Investment flowslive
DCurrent net foreign direct investment is 0.5% of GDP. Large one-year deals can distort this reading.
WHY IT MATTERS
Foreign investment can bring factories, jobs and technology; sudden reversals pressure currencies and financing.
WHO FEELS IT
Employers, banks, governments and local suppliers.
WATCH NEXT
Greenfield projects, portfolio flows, currency stability and deal concentration.
Climate & environmentlive
DCurrent-enough annual PM2.5 exposure is 5.2 μg/m³ and renewables provide 5.2% of final energy use. Live heat and disasters add separate current context.
WHY IT MATTERS
Heat, water and disaster exposure can damage crops, grids, health, housing and insurance at once.
WHO FEELS IT
Farmers, coastal communities, utilities, insurers and food consumers.
WATCH NEXT
Heat anomalies, rainfall, reservoirs, crop conditions, fires and disaster losses.