CLIMATECONFIDENCE · MODERATE
78% estimated chance
- Published
- Jul 30, 2026
- Updated
- Jul 30, 2026
- Data through
- Jul 30, 2026
- Resolution date
- Feb 15, 2027
- Movement
- Initial published baseline. No movement history exists yet.
- Science
- WP-SCIENCE-0.4
100% exact input coverage · evidence quality 85/100 · declared expert weights are not historically validated.
Audit every input and weight →- Recent global temperatures provide a high starting baseline.
- Ocean heat and greenhouse-gas forcing influence the full-year average.
- WorldPredicta heat observations provide current local context but do not determine the global rank.
- Ocean-atmosphere variability could cool the remaining months.
- Different temperature datasets can produce slightly different rankings.
A warmer global year raises the background risk of dangerous heat exposure.
Cooling demand, insurance losses and electricity stress can increase.
Heat planning matters most for children, older adults and outdoor workers.
Resolve YES if Copernicus ranks the 2026 ERA5 calendar-year global mean surface-air temperature first, second or third in its first complete annual bulletin; otherwise resolve NO.
Source receipts
Copernicus Climate Change ServiceMODELED
ERA5 global surface air temperature
- Observation
- June 2026 ranked second warmest globally; it was 0.56°C above 1991–2020 and the trailing 12 months were 1.43°C above 1850–1900.
- Period
- 2026-06
- Model role
- Probability input
- Coverage
- Global
Open-MeteoMODELED
Current and recent city-level temperature observations
- Observation
- Unavailable at the publication cutoff; city observations are excluded from the global-rank probability.
- Period
- 2026-07-30
- Model role
- Context only
- Coverage
- Selected strategic cities