FOODCONFIDENCE · LOW
35% estimated chance
- Published
- Jul 30, 2026
- Updated
- Jul 30, 2026
- Data through
- Jul 30, 2026
- Resolution date
- Jan 31, 2027
- Movement
- Initial published baseline. The June index receives zero probability weight because its historical component diagnostic underperforms the constant base rate.
- Science
- WP-SCIENCE-0.4
100% exact input coverage · evidence quality 100/100 · declared expert weights are not historically validated.
Audit every input and weight →- Heat and rainfall shocks can affect several major producing regions at once.
- Energy and fertilizer costs flow into production and transport.
- Export restrictions can amplify a physical shortage into a price shock.
- Strong harvests and inventories could absorb weather losses.
- A stronger dollar or weaker demand can reduce the global index.
Food pressure hits lower-income households first because groceries take a larger budget share.
Restaurants, retailers and governments may pass through or subsidize higher costs.
Severe and persistent food inflation can add social and political stress.
Resolve YES if the first FAO release of the December 2026 Food Price Index is at least 8.0% above the first released December 2025 value. Later revisions do not change the result.
Source receipts
Food and Agriculture OrganizationMEASURED
FAO Food Price Index
- Observation
- The June 2026 index was 130.3 versus 124.3 in December 2025, a 4.8% increase toward the forecast's 8% threshold.
- Period
- 2026-06; comparison baseline 2025-12
- Model role
- Probability input
- Coverage
- Internationally traded food commodity groups
Open-MeteoMODELED
Current temperature anomalies for selected cities
- Observation
- Unavailable at the publication cutoff and excluded because selected cities are not a crop-yield model.
- Period
- 2026-07-30
- Model role
- Context only
- Coverage
- Selected locations; not a crop-yield model