ECONOMYCONFIDENCE · LOW
44% estimated chance
- Published
- Jul 30, 2026
- Updated
- Jul 30, 2026
- Data through
- Jul 30, 2026
- Resolution date
- Feb 28, 2027
- Movement
- Initial published baseline. No movement history exists yet.
- Science
- WP-SCIENCE-0.4
100% exact input coverage · evidence quality 85/100 · declared expert weights are not historically validated.
Audit every input and weight →- Weak trade or investment can pull multiple regions down together.
- Persistent inflation can keep financial conditions restrictive.
- Large geopolitical or energy shocks would lower the growth path.
- Disinflation and easier financial conditions could support demand.
- Productivity, investment and stronger emerging-market growth could keep the forecast above 3%.
Slower global growth can weaken hiring, exports and business investment.
Markets, rates and currencies may respond before household data does.
Fiscal pressure can reduce governments' room to absorb new shocks.
Resolve YES if the IMF's first World Economic Outlook publication or update released in 2027 lists 2027 world output growth below 3.0%; exactly 3.0% resolves NO.
Source receipts
International Monetary FundESTIMATED
World Economic Outlook
- Observation
- The July 2026 update projected 3.4% world real GDP growth for 2027, 0.4 percentage points above the forecast threshold.
- Period
- 2027 projection in July 2026 update
- Model role
- Probability input
- Coverage
- World economy
World BankMEASURED
World Development Indicators
- Observation
- Country observations are retained as context but are not double-counted against the IMF forecast being predicted.
- Period
- latest country-specific annual releases
- Model role
- Context only
- Coverage
- 217 economies and territories with uneven series coverage