WORLD PREDICTA
PERMANENT FORECAST RECORD · SUPPLY CHAIN

Will a tracked strategic sea lane record a 7-day average transit decline of at least 20% before December 31, 2026?

The threshold is intentionally large: routine weekly variation should not count as a disruption.

36%ESTIMATED CHANCEModerateCONFIDENCEJan 8, 2027RESOLUTION DATEWP-FLOW-0.1MODEL

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SUPPLY CHAINCONFIDENCE · MODERATE

36% estimated chance

Published
Jul 30, 2026
Updated
Jul 30, 2026
Data through
Jul 30, 2026
Resolution date
Jan 8, 2027
Movement
Initial published baseline. No movement history exists yet.
Science
WP-SCIENCE-0.4
REPRODUCIBLE CALCULATION · WP-SCIENCE-0.4
PRIOR30%
+
NET EVIDENCE+6 pts
=
RECOMPUTED36%
MATH MATCHES

100% exact input coverage · evidence quality 85/100 · declared expert weights are not historically validated.

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MAIN DRIVERS
  1. A small number of narrow passages carry globally important energy and container flows.
  2. Conflict, weather, accidents and rerouting can produce sharp traffic changes.
  3. Current monitoring already exposes traffic baselines rather than relying on headlines alone.
WHAT COULD LOWER THE PROBABILITY
  1. Shipping operators can reroute before traffic falls through the threshold.
  2. Maintenance, reporting gaps and calendar effects can imitate a short disruption.
WHAT THIS COULD MEAN FOR YOU
Money

A sustained flow drop can raise freight, fuel and imported-goods costs.

Work

Factories and logistics employers can feel parts delays and route changes.

Home

Delivery times and some retail prices may move after a lag.

PUBLIC RESOLUTION RULE

Resolve YES if any passage in the published WorldPredicta monitoring set has a complete 7-day average at least 20% below its preceding 28-day daily-transit average before the deadline. Source outages and incomplete weeks do not qualify.

Source receipts