ECONOMYCONFIDENCE · MODERATE
49% estimated chance
- Published
- Jul 30, 2026
- Updated
- Jul 30, 2026
- Data through
- Jul 30, 2026
- Resolution date
- Jan 15, 2027
- Movement
- Initial published baseline. No movement history exists yet.
- Science
- WP-SCIENCE-0.4
100% exact input coverage · evidence quality 100/100 · declared expert weights are not historically validated.
Audit every input and weight →- Recent headline inflation remains sensitive to housing, energy and service costs.
- Supply disruptions can quickly re-enter household prices.
- Labor-market resilience can keep demand firmer than expected.
- A sharper slowdown could reduce pricing power.
- Energy and goods prices could fall enough to pull the headline rate below the threshold.
Higher inflation can keep borrowing costs and everyday expenses elevated.
Rent, insurance, utilities and financing remain the household channels to watch.
Wage gains matter less if prices rise just as quickly.
Resolve YES if the BLS December 2026 all-items CPI 12-month percentage change is 3.0% or higher in the first published release; otherwise resolve NO. Later revisions do not change the result.
Source receipts
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMEASURED
Consumer Price Index, all urban consumers, all items
- Observation
- All-items CPI rose 3.5% over the 12 months ending June 2026.
- Period
- 2026-06
- Model role
- Probability input
- Coverage
- United States
IMFESTIMATED
Consumer prices and World Economic Outlook context
- Observation
- Macroeconomic context only; no second CPI value is allowed to duplicate the BLS input.
- Period
- 2026-07
- Model role
- Context only
- Coverage
- United States and comparable economies