Locked trials awaiting delayed observations.
Forecast. Wait. Resolve. Learn. Repeat.
Every UTC day the system locks twelve one-day temperature-threshold probabilities across the world. Delayed historical observations resolve them automatically. Misses remain public, and each location earns a bounded bias correction only after five real outcomes.
Outcomes with immutable source receipts.
Lower is better; 0.25 is the constant 50% benchmark.
Provisional conclusions begin only after 20 outcomes.
WHAT THIS PROVES
The machinery can improve while nobody is visiting.
This cohort proves unattended issuance, probability locking, outcome resolution, Brier scoring and location-specific bias learning. It does not prove that WorldPredicta can predict markets, wars or national economies. Those strategic domains retain separate ledgers and evidence standards.
PUBLIC TRIAL RECEIPTS
Newest locked probabilities and outcomes.
Historical observations intentionally lag issuance. A source delay leaves a trial pending; it never creates a guessed outcome.
NORTH AFRICAPENDING
Will Cairo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Nov 1, 2026 reach at least 30.3°C?
30%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 29.4°C
- Learned bias
- +0.2°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-12 through 2026-10-26. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗SOUTH ASIAPENDING
Will Delhi's UTC-day maximum temperature on Nov 1, 2026 reach at least 33.6°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 27.6°C
- Learned bias
- -0.6°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-12 through 2026-10-26. Uncertainty 1.9°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗NORTH AMERICAPENDING
Will Houston's UTC-day maximum temperature on Nov 1, 2026 reach at least 31.4°C?
8%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 29.6°C
- Learned bias
- -0.2°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-12 through 2026-10-26. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗WEST AFRICAPENDING
Will Lagos's UTC-day maximum temperature on Nov 1, 2026 reach at least 30.4°C?
59%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 29.9°C
- Learned bias
- +0.8°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-12 through 2026-10-26. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗EUROPEPENDING
Will Madrid's UTC-day maximum temperature on Nov 1, 2026 reach at least 25.5°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 19.9°C
- Learned bias
- +0.4°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-12 through 2026-10-26. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗NORTH AMERICAPENDING
Will Mexico City's UTC-day maximum temperature on Nov 1, 2026 reach at least 23.7°C?
95%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 26.9°C
- Learned bias
- 0.0°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-12 through 2026-10-26. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗NORTH AMERICAPENDING
Will Phoenix's UTC-day maximum temperature on Nov 1, 2026 reach at least 36.2°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 21.8°C
- Learned bias
- -0.4°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-12 through 2026-10-26. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗SOUTH AMERICAPENDING
Will São Paulo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Nov 1, 2026 reach at least 27.2°C?
13%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 25.8°C
- Learned bias
- -0.2°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-12 through 2026-10-26. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗EAST ASIAPENDING
Will Shanghai's UTC-day maximum temperature on Nov 1, 2026 reach at least 26.1°C?
53%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 26.3°C
- Learned bias
- -0.1°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-12 through 2026-10-26. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗SOUTHEAST ASIAPENDING
Will Singapore's UTC-day maximum temperature on Nov 1, 2026 reach at least 33.2°C?
8%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 30.2°C
- Learned bias
- +1.0°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-12 through 2026-10-26. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗OCEANIAPENDING
Will Sydney's UTC-day maximum temperature on Nov 1, 2026 reach at least 25.0°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 22.3°C
- Learned bias
- +0.2°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-12 through 2026-10-26. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗EAST ASIAPENDING
Will Tokyo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Nov 1, 2026 reach at least 25.2°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 20.1°C
- Learned bias
- +1.8°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-12 through 2026-10-26. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗NORTH AFRICAPENDING
Will Cairo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 31, 2026 reach at least 30.3°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 30, 2026, 12:19 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 26.5°C
- Learned bias
- +0.2°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-11 through 2026-10-25. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗SOUTH ASIAPENDING
Will Delhi's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 31, 2026 reach at least 33.6°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 30, 2026, 12:19 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 28.2°C
- Learned bias
- -0.5°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-11 through 2026-10-25. Uncertainty 1.9°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗NORTH AMERICAPENDING
Will Houston's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 31, 2026 reach at least 31.4°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 30, 2026, 12:19 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 29.1°C
- Learned bias
- -0.2°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-11 through 2026-10-25. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗WEST AFRICAPENDING
Will Lagos's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 31, 2026 reach at least 30.4°C?
33%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 30, 2026, 12:19 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 29.0°C
- Learned bias
- +0.8°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-11 through 2026-10-25. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗EUROPEPENDING
Will Madrid's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 31, 2026 reach at least 26.0°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 30, 2026, 12:19 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 20.6°C
- Learned bias
- +0.3°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-11 through 2026-10-25. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗NORTH AMERICAPENDING
Will Mexico City's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 31, 2026 reach at least 24.0°C?
95%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 30, 2026, 12:19 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 27.2°C
- Learned bias
- -0.1°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-11 through 2026-10-25. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗NORTH AMERICAPENDING
Will Phoenix's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 31, 2026 reach at least 36.7°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 30, 2026, 12:19 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 25.2°C
- Learned bias
- -0.4°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-11 through 2026-10-25. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗SOUTH AMERICAPENDING
Will São Paulo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 31, 2026 reach at least 28.6°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 30, 2026, 12:19 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 22.8°C
- Learned bias
- -0.3°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-11 through 2026-10-25. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗EAST ASIAPENDING
Will Shanghai's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 31, 2026 reach at least 26.9°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 30, 2026, 12:19 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 23.0°C
- Learned bias
- -0.2°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-11 through 2026-10-25. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗SOUTHEAST ASIAPENDING
Will Singapore's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 31, 2026 reach at least 33.3°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 30, 2026, 12:19 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 29.4°C
- Learned bias
- +1.0°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-11 through 2026-10-25. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗OCEANIAPENDING
Will Sydney's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 31, 2026 reach at least 25.4°C?
65%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 30, 2026, 12:19 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 25.8°C
- Learned bias
- +0.1°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-11 through 2026-10-25. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗EAST ASIAPENDING
Will Tokyo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 31, 2026 reach at least 25.2°C?
56%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 30, 2026, 12:19 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 23.5°C
- Learned bias
- +1.9°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-11 through 2026-10-25. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗NORTH AFRICAPENDING
Will Cairo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 30, 2026 reach at least 30.4°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 29, 2026, 12:02 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 26.6°C
- Learned bias
- +0.1°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-10 through 2026-10-24. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗SOUTH ASIAPENDING
Will Delhi's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 30, 2026 reach at least 33.6°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 29, 2026, 12:02 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 27.4°C
- Learned bias
- -0.5°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-10 through 2026-10-24. Uncertainty 2.0°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗NORTH AMERICAPENDING
Will Houston's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 30, 2026 reach at least 31.4°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 29, 2026, 12:02 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 26.2°C
- Learned bias
- -0.2°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-10 through 2026-10-24. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗WEST AFRICAPENDING
Will Lagos's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 30, 2026 reach at least 30.2°C?
65%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 29, 2026, 12:02 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 30.0°C
- Learned bias
- +0.7°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-10 through 2026-10-24. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗EUROPEPENDING
Will Madrid's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 30, 2026 reach at least 26.5°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 29, 2026, 12:02 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 21.9°C
- Learned bias
- +0.4°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-10 through 2026-10-24. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗NORTH AMERICAPENDING
Will Mexico City's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 30, 2026 reach at least 24.1°C?
83%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 29, 2026, 12:02 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 25.5°C
- Learned bias
- -0.1°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-10 through 2026-10-24. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗NORTH AMERICAPENDING
Will Phoenix's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 30, 2026 reach at least 36.7°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 29, 2026, 12:02 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 28.8°C
- Learned bias
- -0.3°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-10 through 2026-10-24. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗SOUTH AMERICAPENDING
Will São Paulo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 30, 2026 reach at least 28.6°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 29, 2026, 12:02 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 25.3°C
- Learned bias
- -0.4°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-10 through 2026-10-24. Uncertainty 1.6°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗EAST ASIAPENDING
Will Shanghai's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 30, 2026 reach at least 27.2°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 29, 2026, 12:02 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 22.4°C
- Learned bias
- -0.1°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-10 through 2026-10-24. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗SOUTHEAST ASIAPENDING
Will Singapore's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 30, 2026 reach at least 33.3°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 29, 2026, 12:02 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 29.5°C
- Learned bias
- +1.2°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-10 through 2026-10-24. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗OCEANIAPENDING
Will Sydney's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 30, 2026 reach at least 25.2°C?
84%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 29, 2026, 12:02 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 26.6°C
- Learned bias
- 0.0°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-10 through 2026-10-24. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗EAST ASIAPENDING
Will Tokyo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 30, 2026 reach at least 25.2°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 29, 2026, 12:02 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 21.2°C
- Learned bias
- +1.6°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-10 through 2026-10-24. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗NORTH AFRICAPENDING
Will Cairo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 29, 2026 reach at least 30.4°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 28, 2026, 12:02 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 27.9°C
- Learned bias
- 0.0°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-09 through 2026-10-23. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗SOUTH ASIAPENDING
Will Delhi's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 29, 2026 reach at least 34.1°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 28, 2026, 12:02 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 27.3°C
- Learned bias
- -0.5°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-09 through 2026-10-23. Uncertainty 2.0°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗NORTH AMERICAPENDING
Will Houston's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 29, 2026 reach at least 31.8°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 28, 2026, 12:02 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 28.3°C
- Learned bias
- -0.3°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-09 through 2026-10-23. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗WEST AFRICAPENDING
Will Lagos's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 29, 2026 reach at least 30.2°C?
86%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 28, 2026, 12:02 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 31.0°C
- Learned bias
- +0.7°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-09 through 2026-10-23. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗EUROPEPENDING
Will Madrid's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 29, 2026 reach at least 26.8°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 28, 2026, 12:02 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 20.7°C
- Learned bias
- +0.3°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-09 through 2026-10-23. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗NORTH AMERICAPENDING
Will Mexico City's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 29, 2026 reach at least 24.1°C?
30%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 28, 2026, 12:02 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 23.4°C
- Learned bias
- 0.0°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-09 through 2026-10-23. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗NORTH AMERICAPENDING
Will Phoenix's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 29, 2026 reach at least 36.7°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 28, 2026, 12:02 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 28.9°C
- Learned bias
- -0.4°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-09 through 2026-10-23. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗SOUTH AMERICAPENDING
Will São Paulo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 29, 2026 reach at least 28.6°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 28, 2026, 12:02 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 21.2°C
- Learned bias
- -0.2°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-09 through 2026-10-23. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗EAST ASIAPENDING
Will Shanghai's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 29, 2026 reach at least 27.8°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 28, 2026, 12:02 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 23.1°C
- Learned bias
- -0.1°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-09 through 2026-10-23. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗SOUTHEAST ASIAPENDING
Will Singapore's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 29, 2026 reach at least 33.3°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 28, 2026, 12:02 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 29.1°C
- Learned bias
- +1.2°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-09 through 2026-10-23. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗OCEANIAPENDING
Will Sydney's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 29, 2026 reach at least 24.6°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 28, 2026, 12:02 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 22.2°C
- Learned bias
- 0.0°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-09 through 2026-10-23. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗EAST ASIAPENDING
Will Tokyo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 29, 2026 reach at least 25.4°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 28, 2026, 12:02 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 17.3°C
- Learned bias
- +1.6°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-09 through 2026-10-23. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗NORTH AFRICAPENDING
Will Cairo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 28, 2026 reach at least 30.8°C?
7%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 27, 2026, 12:19 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 28.5°C
- Learned bias
- +0.1°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-08 through 2026-10-22. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗SOUTH ASIAPENDING
Will Delhi's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 28, 2026 reach at least 34.5°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 27, 2026, 12:19 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 28.8°C
- Learned bias
- -0.5°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-08 through 2026-10-22. Uncertainty 2.1°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗NORTH AMERICAPENDING
Will Houston's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 28, 2026 reach at least 31.9°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 27, 2026, 12:19 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 28.9°C
- Learned bias
- -0.2°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-08 through 2026-10-22. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗WEST AFRICAPENDING
Will Lagos's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 28, 2026 reach at least 30.1°C?
67%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 27, 2026, 12:19 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 30.0°C
- Learned bias
- +0.7°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-08 through 2026-10-22. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗EUROPEPENDING
Will Madrid's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 28, 2026 reach at least 26.9°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 27, 2026, 12:19 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 21.3°C
- Learned bias
- +0.2°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-08 through 2026-10-22. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗NORTH AMERICAPENDING
Will Mexico City's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 28, 2026 reach at least 24.3°C?
11%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 27, 2026, 12:19 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 22.6°C
- Learned bias
- 0.0°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-08 through 2026-10-22. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗NORTH AMERICAPENDING
Will Phoenix's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 28, 2026 reach at least 36.7°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 27, 2026, 12:19 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 28.6°C
- Learned bias
- -0.1°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-08 through 2026-10-22. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗SOUTH AMERICAPENDING
Will São Paulo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 28, 2026 reach at least 28.6°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 27, 2026, 12:19 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 21.2°C
- Learned bias
- -0.3°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-08 through 2026-10-22. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗EAST ASIAPENDING
Will Shanghai's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 28, 2026 reach at least 28.0°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 27, 2026, 12:19 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 19.8°C
- Learned bias
- -0.2°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-08 through 2026-10-22. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗SOUTHEAST ASIAPENDING
Will Singapore's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 28, 2026 reach at least 33.3°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 27, 2026, 12:19 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 29.7°C
- Learned bias
- +1.2°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-08 through 2026-10-22. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗OCEANIAPENDING
Will Sydney's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 28, 2026 reach at least 24.6°C?
10%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 27, 2026, 12:19 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 22.8°C
- Learned bias
- 0.0°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-08 through 2026-10-22. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗EAST ASIAPENDING
Will Tokyo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 28, 2026 reach at least 25.4°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 27, 2026, 12:19 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 17.0°C
- Learned bias
- +1.5°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-08 through 2026-10-22. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗NORTH AFRICAPENDING
Will Cairo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 27, 2026 reach at least 30.9°C?
7%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 28.6°C
- Learned bias
- +0.1°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-07 through 2026-10-21. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗SOUTH ASIAPENDING
Will Delhi's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 27, 2026 reach at least 34.6°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 29.5°C
- Learned bias
- -0.5°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-07 through 2026-10-21. Uncertainty 2.2°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗NORTH AMERICAPENDING
Will Houston's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 27, 2026 reach at least 32.0°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 27.4°C
- Learned bias
- -0.2°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-07 through 2026-10-21. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗WEST AFRICAPENDING
Will Lagos's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 27, 2026 reach at least 30.1°C?
33%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 28.9°C
- Learned bias
- +0.6°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-07 through 2026-10-21. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗EUROPEPENDING
Will Madrid's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 27, 2026 reach at least 27.4°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 22.0°C
- Learned bias
- +0.2°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-07 through 2026-10-21. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗NORTH AMERICAPENDING
Will Mexico City's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 27, 2026 reach at least 24.6°C?
6%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 22.4°C
- Learned bias
- -0.1°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-07 through 2026-10-21. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗NORTH AMERICAPENDING
Will Phoenix's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 27, 2026 reach at least 36.7°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 28.7°C
- Learned bias
- -0.1°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-07 through 2026-10-21. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗SOUTH AMERICAPENDING
Will São Paulo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 27, 2026 reach at least 28.6°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 21.0°C
- Learned bias
- -0.5°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-07 through 2026-10-21. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗EAST ASIAPENDING
Will Shanghai's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 27, 2026 reach at least 28.5°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 20.7°C
- Learned bias
- -0.1°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-07 through 2026-10-21. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗SOUTHEAST ASIAPENDING
Will Singapore's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 27, 2026 reach at least 33.3°C?
11%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 30.3°C
- Learned bias
- +1.3°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-07 through 2026-10-21. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗OCEANIAPENDING
Will Sydney's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 27, 2026 reach at least 24.6°C?
5%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 20.1°C
- Learned bias
- +0.1°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-07 through 2026-10-21. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗EAST ASIAPENDING
Will Tokyo's UTC-day maximum temperature on Oct 27, 2026 reach at least 25.7°C?
35%LOCKED PROBABILITY- Issued
- Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Provider forecast
- 23.7°C
- Learned bias
- +1.5°C
- Resolution
- Awaiting historical observation
Open model and resolution rule
YES when Open-Meteo Historical Weather reports temperature_2m_max greater than or equal to the locked threshold for the named UTC date; otherwise NO. The probability and threshold never change after issuance.
Baseline: 2026-09-07 through 2026-10-21. Uncertainty 1.5°C. Model WP-WEATHER-ADAPTIVE-0.1.
Open Open-Meteo ↗